Statistical utilitarianism

We show that, in a sufficiently large population satisfying certain statistical regularities, it is often possible to accurately estimate the utilitarian social welfare function, even if we only have very noisy data about individual utility functions and interpersonal utility comparisons. In particular, we show that it is often possible to identify an optimal or close-to-optimal utilitarian social choice using voting rules such as the Borda rule, approval voting, relative utilitarianism, or any Condorcet-consistent rule

The wisdom of collective grading and the effects of epistemic and semantic diversity

A computer simulation is used to study collective judgements that an expert panel reaches on the basis of qualitative probability judgements contributed by individual members. The simulated panel displays a strong and robust crowd wisdom effect. The panel's performance is better when members contribute precise probability estimates instead of qualitative judgements, but not by much. Surprisingly, it doesn't always hurt for panel members to interpret the probability expressions differently. Indeed, coordinating their understandings can be much worse

Statistical utilitarianism

We show that, in a sufficiently large population satisfying certain statistical regularities, it is often possible to accurately estimate the utilitarian social welfare function, even if we only have very noisy data about individual utility functions and interpersonal utility comparisons. In particular, we show that it is often possible to identify an optimal or close-to-optimal utilitarian social choice using voting rules such as the Borda rule, approval voting, relative utilitarianism, or any Condorcet-consistent rule

Beyond the worst case: Distortion in impartial culture electorate

{\em Distortion} is a well-established notion for quantifying the loss of social welfare that may occur in voting. As voting rules take as input only ordinal information, they are essentially forced to neglect the exact values the agents have for the alternatives. Thus, in worst-case electorates, voting rules may return low social welfare alternatives and have high distortion. Accompanying voting rules with a small number of cardinal queries per agent may reduce distortion considerably. To explore distortion beyond worst-case conditions, we introduce a simple stochastic model, according to which the values the agents have for the alternatives are drawn independently from a common probability distribution. This gives rise to so-called {\em impartial culture electorates}. We refine the definition of distortion so that it is suitable for this stochastic setting and show that, rather surprisingly, all voting rules have high distortion {\em on average}. On the positive side, for the fundamental case where the agents have random {\em binary} values for the alternatives, we present a mechanism that achieves approximately optimal average distortion by making a {\em single} cardinal query per agent. This enables us to obtain slightly suboptimal average distortion bounds for general distributions using a simple randomized mechanism that makes one query per agent. We complement these results by presenting new tradeoffs between the distortion and the number of queries per agent in the traditional worst-case setting.Comment: 27 pages, 2 figure

Assessing ethical reasoning skills: Initial validity evidence for the Ethical Reasoning Identification Test

Employers, policymakers, parents and other stakeholders value ethical reasoning (ER) skills. Thus, to help students actively engage in the ER process, stakeholders at James Madison University (JMU) redefined ER, implemented campus-wide ER interventions, and created the Ethical Reasoning Identification Test (ERIT-1) to measure students’ ability to engage in a lower-level step of the ER process. The current study examined the factor structure and reliability of the ERIT-1. Confirmatory Factor Analysis results provided support for a unidimensional factor structure, meaning stakeholders can report and analyze total scores for the ERIT-1. ERIT-1 scores also demonstrated good reliability. Correlation analyses provided initial external validity evidence for ERIT-1 scores, indicating that the ERIT-1 and the SAT verbal reasoning test measure substantively different constructs. In addition, the ERIT-1 was sensitive to slight differences in ER training. Specifically, students experiencing a 75-minute ER intervention tended to perform better on ERIT-1 items compared to students that experienced no ER intervention. Overall, the ERIT-1 demonstrated great potential for assessing ER student learning outcomes. Future research should continue building upon this base of validity evidence. For instance, researchers should collect additional known groups validity evidence from students who received stronger doses of ER interventions

Fairness in operations.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Operations Research Center, 2011.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 131-136).This thesis deals with two basic issues in resource allocation problems. The first issue pertains to how one approaches the problem of designing the "right" objective for a given resource allocation problem. The notion of what is "right" can be fairly nebulous; we consider two issues that we see as key: efficiency and fairness. We approach the problem of designing objectives that account for the natural tension between efficiency and fairness in the context of a framework that captures a number of problems of interest to operations managers. We state a precise version of the design problem, provide a quantitative understanding of the tradeoff between efficiency and fairness inherent to this design problem and demonstrate the approach in a case study that considers air traffic management. Secondly, we deal with the issue of designing implementable policies that serve such objectives, balancing efficiency and fairness in practice. We do so specifically in the context of organ allocation for transplantation. In particular, we propose a scalable, data-driven method for designing national policies for the allocation of deceased donor kidneys to patients on a waiting list, in a fair and efficient way. We focus on policies that have the same form as the one currently used in the U.S., that are policies based on a point system, which ranks patients according to some priority criteria, e.g., waiting time, medical urgency, etc., or a combination thereof. Rather than making specific assumptions about fairness principles or priority criteria, our method offers the designer the flexibility to select his desired criteria and fairness constraints from a broad class of allowable constraints. The method then designs a point system that is based on the selected priority criteria, and approximately maximizes medical efficiency, i.e., life year gains from transplant, while simultaneously enforcing selected fairness constraints. Using our method, we design a point system that has the same form, uses the same criteria and satisfies the same fairness constraints as the point system that was recently proposed by U.S. policymakers. In addition, the point system we design delivers an 8% increase in extra life year gains. We evaluate the performance of all policies under consideration using the same statistical and simulation tools and data as the U.S. policymakers use. We perform a sensitivity analysis which demonstrates that the increase in extra life year gains by relaxing certain fairness constraints can be as high as 30%.by Nikolaos K. Trichakis.Ph.D

Interpreting the will of the people: a positive analysis of ordinal preference aggregation

We investigate how individuals think groups should aggregate members’ ordinal preferences – that is, how they interpret “the will of the people.” In an experiment, we elicit revealed attitudes toward ordinal preference aggregation and classify subjects according to the rules they apparently deploy. Majoritarianism is rare. Instead, people employ rules that place greater weight on compromise options. The classification’s fit is excellent, and clustering analysis reveals that it does not omit important rules. We ask whether rules are stable across domains, whether people impute cardinal utility from ordinal ranks, and whether attitudes toward aggregation differ across countries with divergent traditions

Toward an Analysis of the Abductive Moral Argument for God’s Existence: Assessing the Evidential Quality of Moral Phenomena and the Evidential Virtuosity of Christian Theological Models

The moral argument for God’s existence is perhaps the oldest and most salient of the arguments from natural theology. In contemporary literature, there has been a focus on the abductive version of the moral argument. Although the mode of reasoning, abduction, has been articulated, there has not been a robust articulation of the individual components of the argument. Such an articulation would include the data quality of moral phenomena, the theoretical virtuosity of theological models that explain the moral phenomena, and how both contribute to the likelihood of moral arguments. The goal of this paper is to provide such an articulation. Our method is to catalog the phenomena, sort them by their location on the emergent hierarchy of sciences, then describe how the ecumenical Christian theological model exemplifies evidential virtues in explaining them. Our results show that moral arguments are neither of the highest or lowest quality yet can be assented to on a principled level of investigation, especially given existential considerations

You Owe Me

In business and politics, gifts are often aimed at influencing the recipient at the expense of third parties. In an experimental study, which removes informational and incentive confounds, subjects strongly respond to small gifts even though they understand the gift giver’s intention. Our findings question existing models of social preferences. They point to anthropological and sociological theories about gifts creating an obligation to reciprocate. We capture these effects in a simple extension of existing models. We show that common policy responses (disclosure, size limits) may be ineffective, consistent with our model. Financial incentives are effective but can backfire

Ethical decision making : an exploratory study of British and Chinese manager behaviour

The growth of international businesses within the context of economic globalisation has created different operating environments that have exposed managers at both national and international levels to different business challenges as well as moral dilemmas. The moral dilemmas and subsequent decisions facing managers in Britain and China today are important considerations both in terms of research knowledge and management practices. This thesis is based on a triangulated cross-cultural comparative study of managers working for British multi-national corporations (MNCs) in China and the United Kingdom (UK). The study includes a postal survey and semi-structured interviews with Chinese and British managers of British MNCs that represent various industries. Alternative to traditional approach, the study has investigated the reality experienced by the managers in their decision making when confronted by moral dilemmas. The managers‟ moral behaviour processes are compared. For China-based managers, the recent moral, economic, social and cultural changes in modern China have contributed to the creation of ethical challenges. The dilemma for them is whether to follow local practices or the corporate standards of their British companies. For managers who are based in Britain, the centre of the moral tension is caused by reconciling personal ethical standards when making decisions to prioritise business rationale. Similarities found between Chinese and British managers show that despite moral struggles and discomfort suffered by managers, the decisions they finally make are determined by a leaning towards their companies‟ continued benefit.The evidence in this study suggests that managers‟ moral behaviour and final decisions are not often determined by what they personally think is morally right or wrong, but determined by their managerial responsibility, business pressure, commonly accepted practices, business culture and social environment, as well as changing economic environments. The components which play essential parts in constructing moral behaviour include managers‟ moral sensitivity, judgement, motivation and decisions. Business rationale and economic values of a decision are consistently shown to be the main reasons which can explain managers‟ decisions. This is the reality of managerial ethical decision-making interpreted and understood by the managers in China and the UK in this study