MODELLING THE CAP ARABLE CROP REGIME UNDER UNCERTAINTY

In this paper we evaluate empirically the absolute and relative size of risk-related effects of a farm policy change, with specific reference to the CAP arable crop regime. We adopt a dual framework under non linear mean-variance risk preferences, which incorporates the impact of price uncertainty in the specific decision-making structure of EU arable crop producers. A system of output supply, input demand and land allocation equations has been estimated on a sample of Italian specialised arable crop farms, which allows us to derive elasticities with respect to all the relevant exogenous variables, including those related to risk. The simulation of the impact of an Agenda 2000-type of shock confirms that the size of risk effects is important in evaluating farmer's output responses. This may have important implications for the revision of "green box" criteria in the context of the current WTO negotiations. Keywords: Risk effects; Common Agricultural Policy; Decoupling; Duality.Risk effects, Common Agricultural Policy, Decoupling, Duality., Agricultural and Food Policy,

Unilateral vs. Bilateral Incentives: Evidence from the U.S. Pork Industry

The idea that individuals adapt their behaviors in response to changes in incentive systems is fundamental to most economic analysis. This paper incorporates the concept of price discovery costs into the incentive theory to offer a theoretical model and empirical evidence on the differential incentive effects of long-term contracts and spot markets. Using the US pork industry case where procuring intertemporally consistent weights of hogs have been critical to pork processors, we show why the effectiveness of unilaterally determined and posted incentive price for the hog quality by the pork packers on the intertemporal consistency erodes and why a bilateral incentive structure built through long-term hog procurement contracts is demanded, in the presence of volatile hog price and feed price movements. The MGARCH model analysis of USDA AMS data supported our hypotheses that long-term hog procurement contracts would help moderate the erosion relative to the spot markets, resulting greater intertemporal consistency of hog weights.long-term contracts, incentive effects, price discovery costs, MGARCH model, Livestock Production/Industries,

Evaluating the Calvo model of sticky prices

This paper studies the empirical performance of a widely used model of nominal rigidities: the Calvo model of sticky goods prices. We describe an extended version of this model with variable elasticity of demand of the differentiated goods and imperfect capital mobility. We find little evidence against standard versions of the model without the extensions, but the estimated frequency of price adjustment is implausible. With the extended model the estimates are more reasonable. This is especially so if the sample is split to take into account a possible change in monetary regime around 1980.Prices

RETAIL CONTRACTING AND GROWER PRICES

Contracting directly between produce shippers and retailers is growing in importance. Retailers seek to obtain reliable supplies, while reducing their reliance on recurring market transactions. Producers seek stable prices and market access. These private transactions diminish spot market liquidity and enhance noncompetitive buying opportunities, raising concerns over the resulting impact on grower prices, whether under contract or not, and the future produce market structure. Primary data are used to test hypotheses on contract participation. Simulations on grower prices reveal that contract prices are generally lower, but less variable, than market prices, suggesting a form of risk sharing.Marketing,

Identification of Options and Policy Instruments for the Internalisation of External Costs of Electricity Generation. Dissemination of External Costs of Electricity Supply Making Electricity External Costs Known to Policy-Makers MAXIMA

In the present paper, after reviewing the results of the ExternE project and its follow-up stages in the estimation of the external costs of electricity production, we look at the policy instruments for the internalisation of such costs. Emphasis is given to subsidies, such as feed-in tariffs, competitive bidding processes and tradable green certificates to stimulate the use of renewables in the production of electricity. When policy-makers are asked to choose the instrument(s) to internalise the externalities in the electricity production, they have to find a solution that gives the best outcome in terms of efficiency, cost minimisation, impact on the job market, security of energy supply, equity of the instrument, technological innovation, certainty of the level of the internalisation, and feasibility. The choice of the instrument will require some trade-offs among these criteria. Conjoint choice analysis can help in investigating how stakeholders and policy makers trade off the criteria when choosing a policy for the internalisation of the externalities. In this paper we present the first results of a questionnaire that employs conjoint choice questions to find out how policy makers and stakeholders of the electricity market trade off some socio-economic aspects in the selection of the policy instruments for the internalisation of the externalities. The results of this first set of interviews will be useful for further research.Policy instruments, ExternE, External costs, Electricity, Conjoint choice analysis

Agriculture in the Face of Changing Markets, Institutions and Policies: Challenges and Strategies

Since the late 1980s, agriculture in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) has been under considerable adjustment pressure due to changing political, economic and institutional environments. These changes have been linked to the transition process, as well as the ongoing integration into the European Union and the world market. Reduced subsidies, increased environmental and food quality demands, as well as structural changes in the supply, processing and food retailing sector call for major structural adjustments and the improvement of farmersâ managerial abilities. Though such changes always carry significant threats to farms, they also offer new opportunities for the farms' entrepreneurial engagement. Upcoming changes in the agricultural environment and their possible consequences for farm structures across Europe are thus still timely subjects. The objective of the IAMO Forum 2006 is to contribute to the success of agriculture in the CEECs, as well as their neighboring countries, in todayâs increasingly competitive environment. Concrete questions the conference focuses on are: What are the most suitable farm organizations, cooperative arrangements and contractual forms? How to improve efficiency and productivity? Where do market niches lie and what are the new product demands? This book contains 33 invited and selected contributions. These papers will be presented at the IAMO Forum 2006 in order to offer a platform for scientists, practitioners and policy-makers to discuss challenges and potential strategies at the farm, value chain, rural society and policy levels in order to cope with the upcoming challenges. IAMO Forum 2006, as well as this book, would not have been possible without the engagement of many people and institutions. We thank the authors of the submitted abstracts and papers, as well as the referees, for their evaluation of the abstracts from which the papers were selected. In particular, we would like to express our thanks to OLIVER JUNGKLAUS, GABRIELE MEWES, KLAUS REINSBERG and ANGELA SCHOLZ, who significantly contributed to the organization of the Forum. Furthermore, our thanks goes to SILKE SCHARF for her work on the layout and editing support of this book, and to JIM CURTISS, JAMIE BULLOCH, and DÃNALL Ã MEARÃIN for their English proof-reading. As experience from previous years documents, the course of the IAMO Forum continues to profit from the support and engagement of the IAMO administration, which we gratefully acknowledge. Last but not least, we are very grateful to the Robert Bosch Foundation, the Federal Ministry of Nutrition, Agriculture and Consumer Protection (BMELV), the German Research Foundation (DFG), the Haniel Foundation and the Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO) for their respective financial support.Agribusiness, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Farm Management, Industrial Organization, International Development, Labor and Human Capital, Land Economics/Use, Productivity Analysis,

Agriculture in the face of changing markets, institutions and policies: Challenges and strategies

Since the late 1980s, agriculture in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) has been under considerable adjustment pressure due to changing political, economic and institutional environments. These changes have been linked to the transition process, as well as the ongoing integration into the European Union and the world market. Reduced subsidies, increased environmental and food quality demands, as well as structural changes in the supply, processing and food retailing sector call for major structural adjustments and the improvement of farmers' managerial abilities. Though such changes always carry significant threats to farms, they also offer new opportunities for the farms' entrepreneurial engagement. Upcoming changes in the agricultural environment and their possible consequences for farm structures across Europe are thus still timely subjects. The objective of the IAMO Forum 2006 is to contribute to the success of agriculture in the CEECs, as well as their neighboring countries, in today's increasingly competitive environment. Concrete questions the conference focuses on are: What are the most suitable farm organizations, cooperative arrangements and contractual forms? How to improve efficiency and productivity? Where do market niches lie and what are the new product demands? CONTENT: Preface; Jarmila Curtiss, Alfons Balmann, Kirsti Dautzenberg, Kathrin Happe. The success of gradualism: Empirical evidence from China's agricultural reform; Jikun Huang, Johan F. M. Swinnen, Scott Rozelle. Land reform and farm restructuring in Moldova, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan: A stocktaking; David Sedik. Land market developments, imperfections, and effects in transition countries; Johan F. M. Swinnen, Pavel Ciaian, Liesbet Vranken. Farmland markets, boom/bust cycles, and farm size; Charles B. Moss, Andrew Schmitz. Duality of farm structure in transition agriculture: The case of Moldova; Zvi Lerman, Dragos Cimpoies. Organizational restructuring of the agrarian sector in Bulgaria during the pre-accession period; Julia M. Doitchinova, Ivan St. Kanchev, Albena Miteva. Governance of Bulgarian farming - Modes, efficiency, impact of EU accession; Hrabrin Bachev. Leadership may have a decisive influence on the successful transition of production cooperatives - A social capital approach; Csaba Forgács. Contractual arrangement and enforcement in transition agriculture: Theory and evidence from China; Hongdong Guo. Contractrual relationships in the Hungarian horticultural sector; Imre Ferto. Contract farming in China: Perspectives of smallholders; Hongdong Guo, Robert W. Jolly, Jianhua Zhu. Are macro policies adjusted to institutional arrangements at the micro level? Some evidence from Polish Agriculture during transition; Jan Falkowski, Dominika Milczarek. The Austrian private foundation as a legal form in farm management, with special emphasis on tax issues; Hermann Peyerl, Günter Breuer. Credit as a tool of integration between the Polish farms and buyers of their products; Alina Danilowska. Who, why and how: Problems of farmers' interest representation in Poland; Aldona Zawojska. How competitive is milk production in the Central and Eastern European countries in comparison to Western Europe? Mikhail Ramanovich, Torsten Hemme. Production and trade of animal products in selected ECO countries; Farhad Mirzaei, Olaf Heidelbach. European agriculture without direct payments - A partial equilibrium analysis; Oliver Balkhausen, Martin Banse. Measuring the degree of market power in the Ukrainian milk processing; Oleksandr Perekhozhuk, Michael Grings. Determinants of foreign direct investments in the food processing industry: An empirical analysis for Ukraine; Oksana Luka. Allocative efficiency of corporate farms in the Leningrad region; David Epstein. Pathways towards efficient levels of machinery investments needed for the sustainable development of arable farms in Bulgaria; Nikolay Naydenov. Small-scale farming in Romania - Shadow prices and efficiency; Johannes Sauer, Borbala Balint. How large is the marginal product of land in the Moscow region? Natalia Il'ina, Nikolay Svetlov. Spatial price transmission on the Turkish wheat market - An initial application; Enno-Burghard Weitzel, Ahmet Bayaner. Farm to retail price transmission on the pork market: A German-Hungarian comparison; Lajos Zoltán Bakucs, Imre Ferto, Heinrich Hockmann, Oleksandr Perekhozhuk. The nature of selected price transmissions in the agri-food chain and their consequences; Lukáš Čechura. Labor mobility in transition countries and the impact of institutions; Thomas Herzfeld, Thomas Glauben. Choosing to migrate or migrating to choose: Migration and labor choice in Albania; Carlo Azzarri, Gero Carletto, Benjamin Davis, Alberto Zezza. Rural non-farm employment in Ukraine; Oleg Nivyevskiy, Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel. Opportunities and challenges for farm household livelihood strategies: Pluriactivity in Finland and the UK; Claire Newton. Territorial aspects of enterprise development in remote rural areas of Europe; Zuzana Bednarikova, Tomas Doucha, Zdenek Travnicek. New policy approaches for rural development: The experience of two case regions in Eastern Germany; Theodor Fock --