The Employment Effects of Downsizing the U.S. Military

This study focuses on the employment effects of military spending versus channeling some significant part of the military budget into alternative purposes.� We begin by introducing the basic input-output modeling technique for considering issues such as these in a systematic way. We then present some simple alternative spending scenarios, namely devoting $1 billion to the military versus the same amount of money spent for five alternatives: tax cuts which produce increased levels of personal consumption; health care; education; mass transit; and construction targeted at home weatherization and infrastructure repair. Our first conclusion in assessing such relative employment impacts is straightforward:$1 billion spent on personal consumption, health care, education, mass transit, and construction for home weatherization and infrastructure will all create more jobs within the U.S. economy than would the same $1 billion spent on the military. We then examine the pay level of jobs created through these alternative spending priorities and assess the overall welfare impacts of the alternative employment outcomes. We then consider what would be the impact on employment of transferring all$138 billion in funding that went to the Iraq war in 2007 into alternative peaceful purposes. As we show, a transfer of funds of this magnitude would enable the U.S. government to provide, for example, health insurance for the 45 million U.S. residents who are now uninsured, and still provide funds for significant investments in education and energy conservation. A transfer of the Iraq budget into these alternative purposes would also expand employment in the U.S. by between 600,000 – 1 million jobs, depending on how exactly the $138 billion were allocated.�

Personnel and Human Resource Management

The basic endeavor of this discipline has not changed over the years: it has sought “to contribute to organizational success by assuring that the right numbers of the right people are in the right places at the right times doing the right things in the right ways.

Aging and Work in Canada: Firm Policies

Few Canadian firms have explicit policies dealing with the aging of their workforces, other than pension policies geared to a conventional retirement age. However, other firm policies have unanticipated consequences that apply differentially to older and younger workers. This paper reviews several relevant firm practices used in Canada, including pension and benefits practices, training policies and programs, and work and family practices. The most dramatic firm practice that has an impact on the older worker is restructuring through downsizing the workforce by means of retirement incentives and layoffs. We introduce the issue by considering available national-level Canadian data, and then consider five case studies representing different configurations of firm practices. These cases are: Sun Life Assurance Company of Canada, NOVA Corporation, Slater Steels, Bell Canada, and the garment industry in Montreal. Both management and employee level data are presented. We argue the importance of organizational latitude in establishing firm-based policies that dramatically change the nature of the life course in Canada.aging workforce; firm policies

Productivity and Unemployment in a Two-country Model with Endogenous Growth

Relative to the United States, most European countries have high rates of unemployment and low levels of productivity in manufacturing. To relate these issues, we develop a leader-follower model with endogenous growth and dual labour markets, stressing the role of high-tech and high-wage sectors in trade between countries. The model shows a negative relation between unemployment and growth. The steady state relative productivity level and the corresponding rates of unemployment depend on the relative level of fixed costs in the high-tech sectors of both countries. Downsizing of firms in the leader country raises the worldwide rate of unemployment, whereas downsizing of firms in the follower country enlarges the productivity trap.international trade;endogenous growth;unemployment;efficiency wages;managerial fixed costs;relative productivity

The Greenspan Era: Discretion, Rather Than Rules

What stands out in retrospect about U.S. monetary policy during the Greenspan Era is the ongoing movement away from mechanistic restrictions on the conduct of policy, together with a willingness on occasion to depart even from what more flexible guidelines dictated by contemporary conventional wisdom would imply, in the interest of carrying out the Federal Reserve System%u2019s dual mandate to pursue both stable prices and maximum employment. Part of this change was procedural %u2013 for example, the elimination of money growth targets. The most substantive demonstration of policy flexibility came in the latter half of the 1990s, as unemployment fell below 6% (in 1994), then below 5% (in 1997), and then remained below 5% for more than four years, yet the Federal Reserve did not tighten monetary policy. This policy stance was consistent with a view of the economy, including faster productivity growth and increased exposure to international competition, that Chairman Greenspan had articulated nearly a decade before.

The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies

In theory, democracy is a bulwark against socially harmful policies. In practice, however, democracies frequently adopt and maintain policies that are damaging. How can this paradox be explained? The influence of special interests and voter ignorance are two leading explanations. I offer an alternative story of how and why democracy fails. The central idea is that voters are worse than ignorant; they are, in a word, irrational -- and they vote accordingly. Despite their lack of knowledge, voters are not humble agnostics; instead, they confidently embrace a long list of misconceptions. Economic policy is the primary activity of the modern state. And if there is one thing that the public deeply misunderstands, it is economics. People do not grasp the "invisible hand" of the market, with its ability to harmonize private greed and the public interest. I call this anti-market bias. They underestimate the benefits of interaction with foreigners. I call this anti-foreign bias. They equate prosperity not with production, but with employment. I call this make-work bias. Finally, they are overly prone to think that economic conditions are bad and getting worse. I call this pessimistic bias. In the minds of many, Winston Churchill's famous aphorism cuts the conversation short: "Democracy is the worst form of government, except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time." But this saying overlooks the fact that governments vary in scope as well as form. In democracies the main alternative to majority rule is not dictatorship, but markets. A better understanding of voter irrationality advises us to rely less on democracy and more on the market

Mine closure and its impact on the community : five years after mine closure in Romania, Russia and Ukraine

Against the backdrop of economic transition, several countries in Eastern Europe have undertaken far-reaching programs to restructure their coal sectors, which in the 1990s were in a state of deep crisis. One aspect of restructuring has been the closure of loss-making mines, which are often located in communities where the coal industry is the dominant employer, and the significant downsizing of the workforce. Mitigation efforts that are implemented at the time of mine closure (such as severance payments) are usually intended only for the laid-off workers. The authors examine the impact of mine closure on the entire community five years after mine closure in Romania, Russia, and Ukraine. Using quantitative and qualitative research methods and based on interviews with national, regional, and local experts, and members of the affected population, the authors describe the effect of mine closure and evaluate the various mitigation efforts that have been used by governments in such cases. They conclude with policy recommendations of broad relevance to programs of industrial restructuring in communities dominated by a single industry.Mining&Extractive Industry (Non-Energy),Municipal Financial Management,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Public Health Promotion,Municipal Financial Management,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Mining&Extractive Industry (Non-Energy),Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies

Convergence in Institutions and Market Outcomes: Cross-Country and Time-Series Evidence from the BEEPS Surveys in Transition Economies

This paper uses the BEEPS firm-level data to study the process of convergence of transition countries with developed market economies. The primary focus of the study is on competition and market structure, finance and the structure of lending to firms, and how firms respond to the economic environment by restructuring; we are able to do this because the BEEPS cover thousands of firms from virtually all transition countries over a long time period (1996-99 through 2002-05), as well firms from developed market economies, thus providing a set of natural benchmarks. We find substantial evidence of convergence of transition countries with developed market economies in a number of dimensions. The pattern of growth at the country, sectoral and firm level shows rapid growth of the new private sector and of the micro- and small-firm sectors, with the size distribution of firms moving towards the pattern observed in the BEEPS surveys of developed market economies. Our interpretation of the evidence on competition is that there is an initial move by firms into niches to exploit local market power, and later in transition entry and domestic competitive pressure increases. In finance, the increasing reliance on retained earnings in transition countries reflects a maturation of the sector as new firms come to rely less on informal and family sources of finance. The scale of restructuring and innovation activity is as high or higher in transition economies as in developed market economies. Interestingly, we find evidence of an inverse-U shape pattern, with the peak of restructuring activity taking place in 2002, the middle of the period analyzed. Throughout, the regional patterns suggest greater convergence in the transition countries that joined the European Union in 2004 than in the other, lower-income transition economies.transition, convergence, market structure, competition, enterprise finance, enterprise restructuring

Incentives and Human Resource Management in the Design of Public Sector Reform

We, in Pakistan, should be very happy that the global development community has finally accepted the centrality of public sector reform (also known as improved governance) in the quest for improved living standards in poor countries. Development economics is a subject that is based on the interpretation and observation of some Western academics and Western donor-based agencies. We should have some sympathy for these leaders of development thought and policy for they have struggled with integrating the prevailing theme (fad) in Western thought and philanthropy with learning about the societies and economies that they were supposed to be prescribing for. Using the principle of “ends justifying the means”, they defend their reliance on the current “fad” as well as on the only clearly visible, organised and powerful actor—the government, no matter how inefficient—they would. The result is that this approach led to a long era of government-led development, which centralised policy- and decision-making, initiated planning, and created a wide range of public-sector institutions. The role of the government was thus extended into areas that were conceptually indefensible. In this manner, the public servant grew into her new much more lustrous and looser robes. A bloated, over-centralised, and a private sector inhibiting government was created to be the observation and implementation outpost of the development word. This was the first step in the transformation of the public sector in the direction of misgovernance.