Pricing options and computing implied volatilities using neural networks

This paper proposes a data-driven approach, by means of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), to value financial options and to calculate implied volatilities with the aim of accelerating the corresponding numerical methods. With ANNs being universal function approximators, this method trains an optimized ANN on a data set generated by a sophisticated financial model, and runs the trained ANN as an agent of the original solver in a fast and efficient way. We test this approach on three different types of solvers, including the analytic solution for the Black-Scholes equation, the COS method for the Heston stochastic volatility model and Brent's iterative root-finding method for the calculation of implied volatilities. The numerical results show that the ANN solver can reduce the computing time significantly

MQLV: Optimal Policy of Money Management in Retail Banking with Q-Learning

Reinforcement learning has become one of the best approach to train a computer game emulator capable of human level performance. In a reinforcement learning approach, an optimal value function is learned across a set of actions, or decisions, that leads to a set of states giving different rewards, with the objective to maximize the overall reward. A policy assigns to each state-action pairs an expected return. We call an optimal policy a policy for which the value function is optimal. QLBS, Q-Learner in the Black-Scholes(-Merton) Worlds, applies the reinforcement learning concepts, and noticeably, the popular Q-learning algorithm, to the financial stochastic model of Black, Scholes and Merton. It is, however, specifically optimized for the geometric Brownian motion and the vanilla options. Its range of application is, therefore, limited to vanilla option pricing within financial markets. We propose MQLV, Modified Q-Learner for the Vasicek model, a new reinforcement learning approach that determines the optimal policy of money management based on the aggregated financial transactions of the clients. It unlocks new frontiers to establish personalized credit card limits or to fulfill bank loan applications, targeting the retail banking industry. MQLV extends the simulation to mean reverting stochastic diffusion processes and it uses a digital function, a Heaviside step function expressed in its discrete form, to estimate the probability of a future event such as a payment default. In our experiments, we first show the similarities between a set of historical financial transactions and Vasicek generated transactions and, then, we underline the potential of MQLV on generated Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, MQLV is the first Q-learning Vasicek-based methodology addressing transparent decision making processes in retail banking

Incorporating prior financial domain knowledge into neural networks for implied volatility surface prediction

In this paper we develop a novel neural network model for predicting implied volatility surface. Prior financial domain knowledge is taken into account. A new activation function that incorporates volatility smile is proposed, which is used for the hidden nodes that process the underlying asset price. In addition, financial conditions, such as the absence of arbitrage, the boundaries and the asymptotic slope, are embedded into the loss function. This is one of the very first studies which discuss a methodological framework that incorporates prior financial domain knowledge into neural network architecture design and model training. The proposed model outperforms the benchmarked models with the option data on the S&P 500 index over 20 years. More importantly, the domain knowledge is satisfied empirically, showing the model is consistent with the existing financial theories and conditions related to implied volatility surface.Comment: 8 pages, SIGKDD 202

A neural network-based framework for financial model calibration

A data-driven approach called CaNN (Calibration Neural Network) is proposed to calibrate financial asset price models using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Determining optimal values of the model parameters is formulated as training hidden neurons within a machine learning framework, based on available financial option prices. The framework consists of two parts: a forward pass in which we train the weights of the ANN off-line, valuing options under many different asset model parameter settings; and a backward pass, in which we evaluate the trained ANN-solver on-line, aiming to find the weights of the neurons in the input layer. The rapid on-line learning of implied volatility by ANNs, in combination with the use of an adapted parallel global optimization method, tackles the computation bottleneck and provides a fast and reliable technique for calibrating model parameters while avoiding, as much as possible, getting stuck in local minima. Numerical experiments confirm that this machine-learning framework can be employed to calibrate parameters of high-dimensional stochastic volatility models efficiently and accurately.Comment: 34 pages, 9 figures, 11 table