Acting and Modeling the Future of Dams: Knowledge Production Processes in Sustainability Science

Sustainability scientists are developing new knowledge production processes (KPPs) based on findings that science has a greater impact on decision-making when it (1) adopts an interdisciplinary systems approach, and (2) is participatory and, therefore, perceived as more salient, legitimate, and credible by users. This presentation will discuss the findings from a review of the literature on the intersection of two KPP methods: systems dynamics (SD) and role-play simulations (RPS). SD is a powerful approach for modeling dynamic, complex systems to improve understanding of system behaviors in coupled social-ecological systems. It can capture complex biophysical phenomena and trade-offs, while also representing feedbacks and thresholds from social and institutional systems. It incorporates both qualitative and quantitative information. Unlike static models, SD is explicitly dynamic. It is well suited to group modeling efforts and informing consensus-based decisions. RPSs are experiential, scenario-based tools that help participants learn about how science is used in policy-making decisions, learn about others\u27 preferences and priorities regarding a public policy decision, develop and evaluate innovative options for addressing critical challenges, and contribute to building consensus among diverse and interdependent stakeholders. Although both approaches aim to improve the basis for decision-making, they are rarely discussed together. This presentation considers the literature on each method and their intersection by analyzing: (1) each method\u27s objectives and functions, (2) the steps in their processes for incorporating participation and interdisciplinary, systems-based knowledge, (3) approaches for evaluating outcomes, (4) strengths and weaknesses, (5) opportunities and challenges for integrations, and identifies recommendations for future research. A version of the presentation with an attached transcript can be found here

Buckets to Disaster: What to Avoid in Making Critical Decisions

PresentationThis paper offers an approach to the development of techniques and tools to teach risk-based decision analysis and complex decision analysis to minimize the disastrous outcomes of critical decisions taking in the worlds of plant operations and engineering. Risk Based Decision Management (RBDM) and critical decision analyses are not taught in the curricula of the engineering programs at any major university. Engineers and other technical staff are promoted based on their abilities and the assumption that their experience will guide them to make robust decisions when needed particular in the heat of the moment when time is of the essence. The historical incident record brings this assumption into question. Decisions made by individuals or teams on behalf of companies can lead to disastrous outcomes and significant consequences that have the potential to cause significant losses. This paper proposes a basis for the development of materials to prepare curricula to teach RBDM as part of undergraduate and graduate courses in a very structured and logical manner. RBDM techniques draw on the sports world in which elite teams have developed programs to teach decision making based on reading and reacting in game situations to enhance the chances of positive outcomes. These high-performing teams learn, through many hours of focused practice, how to apply risk-reward paradigms to take decisions in very dynamic and stressful game situations. We all can learn from the sports techniques and processes and apply them in other fields. Based on the analyses of several incidents with disastrous outcomes, the common themes that reoccur in decision making are identified as “buckets” which must be avoided to reduce the possibility of negative outcomes from decisions. The definition and rationale behind these buckets provide the basis of an approach to assist decision makers in taking more rational decisions during engineering projects or operations. Another benefit of analyzing incidents through the eyes of risk (i.e. the decisions implicated in the disastrous consequences) is a better understanding of “what went wrong” and hence an improved ability to more effectively learn from past incidents. Learning from incidents in a global sense has not proven to be effective in the past

Preparing Aspiring Superintendents to Lead School Improvement: Perceptions of Graduates for Program Development

Changes in the design and delivery of educational leadership preparation programs are advocated in order to meet the needs of leadership for 21st century schools (Byrd, 2001; Cox, 2002; McKerrow, 1998; Smylie & Bennett, 2005). The changing needs of the 21st century, coupled with accountability standards and more diverse populations of students within school districts, create challenges for leaders who are attempting to increase student achievement (Firestone & Shipps, 2005; Schlechty, 2008). Further, student performance demands have increased at the state and national level because of the No Child Left Behind Act (Wong & Nicotera, 2007). These standards have thus increased the emphasis of the administrator\u27s responsibility to positively impact student achievement (Taylor, 2001). With the graying of the profession and the need for exemplary school superintendents, the preparation of school superintendents who can successfully lead school improvement is vitally important (Lashway, 2006). According to the National Council for the Accreditation of Teacher Education (NCATE, 2002), university preparation programs should seek current leaders\u27 perspectives of critical content components and the processes to be used in the preparation of educational leaders who can lead school improvement practices and processes

DESIGN OF INVESTIGATION SUPPORT SYSTEM PROTOTYPE (A Case Study in Train Accident Investigation at DAOP 4 Semarang)

Investigation can be a complex task without any supporting system that provides a necessary data or relevant information. Such as investigation of the PT Kereta Api Indonesia (KAI) in analyzing a train accident due to human error is limited. Analysis conducted by KAI only focuses on individuals who are related and have not been able to analyze the error causes in detail because of lack of data. This research tried to design investigation support system prototype to facilitate all of the processes needed in analysis a train accident. The processes started with the interview process using Critical Decision Method (CDM) and inferred using the Emergent Themes Analysis (ETA). Then a systematic method of Human Factors Analysis Classification System Indonesian Railroad (HFACS-IR) used to analyze human error especially for train accidents occurred in Indonesia. At last, accident scenarios constructed by the Linking Causal Factor. The result shows that investigation process suggested able to give more effective recommendation and the prototype design make these processes easie

On the robustness of Herlihy's hierarchy

A wait-free hierarchy maps object types to levels in Z(+) U (infinity) and has the following property: if a type T is at level N, and T' is an arbitrary type, then there is a wait-free implementation of an object of type T', for N processes, using only registers and objects of type T. The infinite hierarchy defined by Herlihy is an example of a wait-free hierarchy. A wait-free hierarchy is robust if it has the following property: if T is at level N, and S is a finite set of types belonging to levels N - 1 or lower, then there is no wait-free implementation of an object of type T, for N processes, using any number and any combination of objects belonging to the types in S. Robustness implies that there are no clever ways of combining weak shared objects to obtain stronger ones. Contrary to what many researchers believe, we prove that Herlihy's hierarchy is not robust. We then define some natural variants of Herlihy's hierarchy, which are also infinite wait-free hierarchies. With the exception of one, which is still open, these are not robust either. We conclude with the open question of whether non-trivial robust wait-free hierarchies exist

Information and Thinking Skills and Processes to Prepare Young Adults for the Information Age

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