Comparison of Support Vector Machine and Back Propagation Neural Network in Evaluating the Enterprise Financial Distress

Recently, applying the novel data mining techniques for evaluating enterprise financial distress has received much research alternation. Support Vector Machine (SVM) and back propagation neural (BPN) network has been applied successfully in many areas with excellent generalization results, such as rule extraction, classification and evaluation. In this paper, a model based on SVM with Gaussian RBF kernel is proposed here for enterprise financial distress evaluation. BPN network is considered one of the simplest and are most general methods used for supervised training of multilayered neural network. The comparative results show that through the difference between the performance measures is marginal; SVM gives higher precision and lower error rates.Comment: 13 pages, 1 figur

Financial-distress prediction of Islamic banks using tree-based stochastic techniques

Purpose Financial distress is a socially and economically important problem that affects companies the world over. Having the power to better understand – and hence aid businesses from failing, has the potential to save not only the company, but also potentially prevent economies from sustained downturn. Although Islamic banks constitute a fraction of total banking assets, their importance have been substantially increasing, as their asset growth rate has surpassed that of conventional banks in recent years. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses a data set comprising 101 international publicly listed Islamic banks to work on advancing financial distress prediction (FDP) by utilising cutting-edge stochastic models, namely decision trees, stochastic gradient boosting and random forests. The most important variables pertaining to forecasting corporate failure are determined from an initial set of 18 variables. Findings The results indicate that the “Working Capital/Total Assets” ratio is the most crucial variable relating to forecasting financial distress using both the traditional “Altman Z-Score” and the “Altman Z-Score for Service Firms” methods. However, using the “Standardised Profits” method, the “Return on Revenue” ratio was found to be the most important variable. This provides empirical evidence to support the recommendations made by Basel Accords for assessing a bank’s capital risks, specifically in relation to the application to Islamic banking. Originality/value These findings provide a valuable addition to the limited literature surrounding Islamic banking in general, and FDP pertaining to Islamic banking in particular, by showcasing the most pertinent variables in forecasting financial distress so that appropriate proactive actions can be taken. </jats:sec

Application of Stationary Wavelet Support Vector Machines for the Prediction of Economic Recessions

This paper examines the efficiency of various approaches on the classification and prediction of economic expansion and recession periods in United Kingdom. Four approaches are applied. The first is discrete choice models using Logit and Probit regressions, while the second approach is a Markov Switching Regime (MSR) Model with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities. The third approach refers on Support Vector Machines (SVM), while the fourth approach proposed in this study is a Stationary Wavelet SVM modelling. The findings show that SW-SVM and MSR present the best forecasting performance, in the out-of sample period. In addition, the forecasts for period 2012-2015 are provided using all approaches

European exchange trading funds trading with locally weighted support vector regression

In this paper, two different Locally Weighted Support Vector Regression (wSVR) algorithms are generated and applied to the task of forecasting and trading five European Exchange Traded Funds. The trading application covers the recent European Monetary Union debt crisis. The performance of the proposed models is benchmarked against traditional Support Vector Regression (SVR) models. The Radial Basis Function, the Wavelet and the Mahalanobis kernel are explored and tested as SVR kernels. Finally, a novel statistical SVR input selection procedure is introduced based on a principal component analysis and the Hansen, Lunde, and Nason (2011) model confidence test. The results demonstrate the superiority of the wSVR models over the traditional SVRs and of the v-SVR over the ε-SVR algorithms. We note that the performance of all models varies and considerably deteriorates in the peak of the debt crisis. In terms of the kernels, our results do not confirm the belief that the Radial Basis Function is the optimum choice for financial series

A comparison of corporate distress prediction models in Brazil: hybrid neural networks, logit models and discriminant analysis

This paper looks at the ability of a relatively new technique, hybrid ANN's, to predict corporate distress in Brazil. These models are compared with traditional statistical techniques and conventional ANN models. The results suggest that hybrid neural networks outperform all other models in predicting firms in financial distress one year prior to the event. This suggests that for researchers, policymakers and others interested in early warning systems, hybrid networks may be a useful tool for predicting firm failure.hybrid neural networks, corporate failures

A Review of Bankruptcy Prediction Studies: 1930-Present

One of the most well-known bankruptcy prediction models was developed by Altman [1968] using multivariate discriminant analysis. Since Altman\u27s model, a multitude of bankruptcy prediction models have flooded the literature. The primary goal of this paper is to summarize and analyze existing research on bankruptcy prediction studies in order to facilitate more productive future research in this area. This paper traces the literature on bankruptcy prediction from the 1930\u27s, when studies focused on the use of simple ratio analysis to predict future bankruptcy, to present. The authors discuss how bankruptcy prediction studies have evolved, highlighting the different methods, number and variety of factors, and specific uses of models. Analysis of 165 bankruptcy prediction studies published from 1965 to present reveals trends in model development. For example, discriminant analysis was the primary method used to develop models in the 1960\u27s and 1970\u27s. Investigation of model type by decade shows that the primary method began to shift to logit analysis and neural networks in the 1980\u27s and 1990\u27s. The number of factors utilized in models is also analyzed by decade, showing that the average has varied over time but remains around 10 overall. Analysis of accuracy of the models suggests that multivariate discriminant analysis and neural networks are the most promising methods for bankruptcy prediction models. The findings also suggest that higher model accuracy is not guaranteed with a greater number of factors. Some models with two factors are just as capable of accurate prediction as models with 21 factors

Neural Networks, Ordered Probit Models and Multiple Discriminants. Evaluating Risk Rating Forecasts of Local Governments in Mexico.

Credit risk ratings have become an important input in the process of improving transparency of public finances in local governments and also in the evaluation of credit quality of state and municipal governments in Mexico. Although rating agencies have recently been subjected to heavy criticism, credit ratings are indicators still widely used as a benchmark by analysts, regulators and banks monitoring financial performance of local governments in stable and volatile periods. In this work we compare and evaluate the performance of three forecasting methods frequently used in the literature estimating credit ratings: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Ordered Probit models (OP) and Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA). We have also compared the performance of the three methods with two models, the first one being an extended model of 34 financial predictors and a second model restricted to only six factors, accounting for more than 80% of the data variability. Although ANN provides better performance within the training sample, OP and MDA are better choices for classifications in the testing sample respectively.Credit Risk Ratings, Ordered Probit Models, Artificial Neural Networks, Discriminant Analysis, Principal Components, Local Governments, Public Finance, Emerging Markets

Application of support vector machines on the basis of the first Hungarian bankruptcy model

In our study we rely on a data mining procedure known as support vector machine (SVM) on the database of the first Hungarian bankruptcy model. The models constructed are then contrasted with the results of earlier bankruptcy models with the use of classification accuracy and the area under the ROC curve. In using the SVM technique, in addition to conventional kernel functions, we also examine the possibilities of applying the ANOVA kernel function and take a detailed look at data preparation tasks recommended in using the SVM method (handling of outliers). The results of the models assembled suggest that a significant improvement of classification accuracy can be achieved on the database of the first Hungarian bankruptcy model when using the SVM method as opposed to neural networks