Temporal models for mining, ranking and recommendation in the Web

Due to their first-hand, diverse and evolution-aware reflection of nearly all areas of life, heterogeneous temporal datasets i.e., the Web, collaborative knowledge bases and social networks have been emerged as gold-mines for content analytics of many sorts. In those collections, time plays an essential role in many crucial information retrieval and data mining tasks, such as from user intent understanding, document ranking to advanced recommendations. There are two semantically closed and important constituents when modeling along the time dimension, i.e., entity and event. Time is crucially served as the context for changes driven by happenings and phenomena (events) that related to people, organizations or places (so-called entities) in our social lives. Thus, determining what users expect, or in other words, resolving the uncertainty confounded by temporal changes is a compelling task to support consistent user satisfaction. In this thesis, we address the aforementioned issues and propose temporal models that capture the temporal dynamics of such entities and events to serve for the end tasks. Specifically, we make the following contributions in this thesis: (1) Query recommendation and document ranking in the Web - we address the issues for suggesting entity-centric queries and ranking effectiveness surrounding the happening time period of an associated event. In particular, we propose a multi-criteria optimization framework that facilitates the combination of multiple temporal models to smooth out the abrupt changes when transitioning between event phases for the former and a probabilistic approach for search result diversification of temporally ambiguous queries for the latter. (2) Entity relatedness in Wikipedia - we study the long-term dynamics of Wikipedia as a global memory place for high-impact events, specifically the reviving memories of past events. Additionally, we propose a neural network-based approach to measure the temporal relatedness of entities and events. The model engages different latent representations of an entity (i.e., from time, link-based graph and content) and use the collective attention from user navigation as the supervision. (3) Graph-based ranking and temporal anchor-text mining inWeb Archives - we tackle the problem of discovering important documents along the time-span ofWeb Archives, leveraging the link graph. Specifically, we combine the problems of relevance, temporal authority, diversity and time in a unified framework. The model accounts for the incomplete link structure and natural time lagging in Web Archives in mining the temporal authority. (4) Methods for enhancing predictive models at early-stage in social media and clinical domain - we investigate several methods to control model instability and enrich contexts of predictive models at the “cold-start” period. We demonstrate their effectiveness for the rumor detection and blood glucose prediction cases respectively. Overall, the findings presented in this thesis demonstrate the importance of tracking these temporal dynamics surround salient events and entities for IR applications. We show that determining such changes in time-based patterns and trends in prevalent temporal collections can better satisfy user expectations, and boost ranking and recommendation effectiveness over time

Extraction of unexpected rules from Twitter hashtags and its application to sport events

Twitter has become a dependable microblogging tool for real time information dissemination and newsworthy events broadcast. Its users sometimes break news on the network faster than traditional newsagents due to their presence at ongoing real life events at most times. Different topic detection methods are currently used to match Twitter posts to real life news of mainstream media. In this paper, we analyse tweets relating to the English FA Cup finals 2012 by applying our novel method named TRCM to extract association rules present in hash tag keywords of tweets in different time-slots. Our system identify evolving hash tag keywords with strong association rules in each time-slot. We then map the identified hash tag keywords to event highlights of the game as reported in the ground truth of the main stream media. The performance effectiveness measure of our experiments show that our method perform well as a Topic Detection and Tracking approach

Scraping the Social? Issues in live social research

What makes scraping methodologically interesting for social and cultural research? This paper seeks to contribute to debates about digital social research by exploring how a ‘medium-specific’ technique for online data capture may be rendered analytically productive for social research. As a device that is currently being imported into social research, scraping has the capacity to re-structure social research, and this in at least two ways. Firstly, as a technique that is not native to social research, scraping risks to introduce ‘alien’ methodological assumptions into social research (such as an pre-occupation with freshness). Secondly, to scrape is to risk importing into our inquiry categories that are prevalent in the social practices enabled by the media: scraping makes available already formatted data for social research. Scraped data, and online social data more generally, tend to come with ‘external’ analytics already built-in. This circumstance is often approached as a ‘problem’ with online data capture, but we propose it may be turned into virtue, insofar as data formats that have currency in the areas under scrutiny may serve as a source of social data themselves. Scraping, we propose, makes it possible to render traffic between the object and process of social research analytically productive. It enables a form of ‘real-time’ social research, in which the formats and life cycles of online data may lend structure to the analytic objects and findings of social research. By way of a conclusion, we demonstrate this point in an exercise of online issue profiling, and more particularly, by relying on Twitter to profile the issue of ‘austerity’. Here we distinguish between two forms of real-time research, those dedicated to monitoring live content (which terms are current?) and those concerned with analysing the liveliness of issues (which topics are happening?)

State of the art 2015: a literature review of social media intelligence capabilities for counter-terrorism

Overview This paper is a review of how information and insight can be drawn from open social media sources. It focuses on the specific research techniques that have emerged, the capabilities they provide, the possible insights they offer, and the ethical and legal questions they raise. These techniques are considered relevant and valuable in so far as they can help to maintain public safety by preventing terrorism, preparing for it, protecting the public from it and pursuing its perpetrators. The report also considers how far this can be achieved against the backdrop of radically changing technology and public attitudes towards surveillance. This is an updated version of a 2013 report paper on the same subject, State of the Art. Since 2013, there have been significant changes in social media, how it is used by terrorist groups, and the methods being developed to make sense of it.  The paper is structured as follows: Part 1 is an overview of social media use, focused on how it is used by groups of interest to those involved in counter-terrorism. This includes new sections on trends of social media platforms; and a new section on Islamic State (IS). Part 2 provides an introduction to the key approaches of social media intelligence (henceforth ‘SOCMINT’) for counter-terrorism. Part 3 sets out a series of SOCMINT techniques. For each technique a series of capabilities and insights are considered, the validity and reliability of the method is considered, and how they might be applied to counter-terrorism work explored. Part 4 outlines a number of important legal, ethical and practical considerations when undertaking SOCMINT work

Characterising semantically coherent classes of text through feature discovery

There is a growing need to provide support for social scientists and humanities scholars to gather and “engage” with very large datasets of free text, to perform very bespoke analyses. method52 is a text analysis platform built for this purpose (Wibberley et al., 2014), and forms a foundation that this thesis builds upon. A central part of method52 and its methodologies is a classifier training component based on dualist (Settles, 2011), and the general process of data engagement with method52 is determined to constitute a continuous cycle of characterising semantically coherent sub-collections, classes, of the text. Two broad methodologies exist for supporting this type of engagement process: (1) a top-down approach wherein concepts and their relationships are explicitly modelled for reasoning, and (2) a more surface-level, bottom-up approach, which entails the use of key terms (surface features) to characterise data. Following the second of these approaches, this thesis examines ways of better supporting this type of data engagement to more effectively support the needs of social scientists and humanities scholars in engaging with text data. The classifier component provides an active learning training environment emphasising the labelling of individual features. However, it can be difficult to interpret and incorporate prior knowledge of features. The process of feature discovery based on the current classifier model does not always produce useful results. And understanding the data well enough to produce successful classifiers is timeconsuming. A new method for discovering features in a corpus is introduced, and feature discovery methods are explored to resolve these issues. When collecting social media data, documents are often obtained by querying an API with a set of key phrases. Therefore, the set of possible classes characterising the data is defined by these basic surface features. It is difficult to know exactly which terms must searched for, and the usefulness of terms can change over time as new discussions and vocabulary emerge. Building on the feature discovery techniques, a framework is presented in this thesis for streaming data with an automatically adapting query to deal with these issues

Information propagation in social networks during crises: A structural framework

In crisis situations like riots, earthquakes, storms, etc. information plays a central role in the process of organizing interventions and decision making. Due to their increasing use during crises, social media (SM) represents a valuable source of information that could help obtain a full picture of people needs and concerns. In this chapter, we highlight the importance of SM networks in crisis management (CM) to show how information is propagated through. The chapter also summarizes the current state of research related to information propagation in SMnetworks during crises. In particular three classes of information propagation research categories are identified: network analysis and community detection, role and topic-oriented information propagation, and infrastructure-oriented information propagation. The chapter describes an analysis framework that deals with structural information propagation for crisismanagement purposes. Structural propagation is about broadcasting specific information obtained from social media networks to targeted sinks/receivers/hubs like emergency agencies, police department, fire department, etc. Specifically, the framework aims to identify the discussion topics, known as sub-events, related to a crisis (event) from SM contents. A brief description of techniques used to detect topics and the way those topics can be used in structural information propagation are presented

Temporal dynamics in information retrieval

The passage of time is unrelenting. Time is an omnipresent feature of our existence, serving as a context to frame change driven by events and phenomena in our personal lives and social constructs. Accordingly, various elements of time are woven throughout information itself, and information behaviours such as creation, seeking and utilisation. Time plays a central role in many aspects of information retrieval (IR). It can not only distinguish the interpretation of information, but also profoundly influence the intentions and expectations of users' information seeking activity. Many time-based patterns and trends - namely temporal dynamics - are evident in streams of information behaviour by individuals and crowds. A temporal dynamic refers to a periodic regularity, or, a one-off or irregular past, present or future of a particular element (e.g., word, topic or query popularity) - driven by predictable and unpredictable time-based events and phenomena. Several challenges and opportunities related to temporal dynamics are apparent throughout IR. This thesis explores temporal dynamics from the perspective of query popularity and meaning, and word use and relationships over time. More specifically, the thesis posits that temporal dynamics provide tacit meaning and structure of information and information seeking. As such, temporal dynamics are a ‘two-way street’ since they must be supported, but also conversely, can be exploited to improve time-aware IR effectiveness. Real-time temporal dynamics in information seeking must be supported for consistent user satisfaction over time. Uncertainty about what the user expects is a perennial problem for IR systems, further confounded by changes over time. To alleviate this issue, IR systems can: (i) assist the user to submit an effective query (e.g., error-free and descriptive), and (ii) better anticipate what the user is most likely to want in relevance ranking. I first explore methods to help users formulate queries through time-aware query auto-completion, which can suggest both recent and always popular queries. I propose and evaluate novel approaches for time-sensitive query auto-completion, and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance of up to 9.2% improvement above the hard baseline. Notably, I find results are reflected across diverse search scenarios in different languages, confirming the pervasive and language agnostic nature of temporal dynamics. Furthermore, I explore the impact of temporal dynamics on the motives behind users' information seeking, and thus how relevance itself is subject to temporal dynamics. I find that temporal dynamics have a dramatic impact on what users expect over time for a considerable proportion of queries. In particular, I find the most likely meaning of ambiguous queries is affected over short and long-term periods (e.g., hours to months) by several periodic and one-off event temporal dynamics. Additionally, I find that for event-driven multi-faceted queries, relevance can often be inferred by modelling the temporal dynamics of changes in related information. In addition to real-time temporal dynamics, previously observed temporal dynamics offer a complementary opportunity as a tacit dimension which can be exploited to inform more effective IR systems. IR approaches are typically based on methods which characterise the nature of information through the statistical distributions of words and phrases. In this thesis I look to model and exploit the temporal dimension of the collection, characterised by temporal dynamics, in these established IR approaches. I explore how the temporal dynamic similarity of word and phrase use in a collection can be exploited to infer temporal semantic relationships between the terms. I propose an approach to uncover a query topic's "chronotype" terms -- that is, its most distinctive and temporally interdependent terms, based on a mix of temporal and non-temporal evidence. I find exploiting chronotype terms in temporal query expansion leads to significantly improved retrieval performance in several time-based collections. Temporal dynamics provide both a challenge and an opportunity for IR systems. Overall, the findings presented in this thesis demonstrate that temporal dynamics can be used to derive tacit structure and meaning of information and information behaviour, which is then valuable for improving IR. Hence, time-aware IR systems which take temporal dynamics into account can better satisfy users consistently by anticipating changing user expectations, and maximising retrieval effectiveness over time