Optimality and Overuse of Labour in Estonian Manufacturing Enterprises

labour, efficiency, employment, flexibility, Estonia

Some issues in the 'archaeology' of software evolution

During a software project's lifetime, the software goes through many changes, as components are added, removed and modified to fix bugs and add new features. This paper is intended as a lightweight introduction to some of the issues arising from an `archaeological' investigation of software evolution. We use our own work to look at some of the challenges faced, techniques used, findings obtained, and lessons learnt when measuring and visualising the historical changes that happen during the evolution of software

Evaluating Forecasts from Factor Models for Canadian GDP Growth and Core Inflation

This paper evaluates the performance of static and dynamic factor models for forecasting Canadian real output growth and core inflation on a quarterly basis. We extract the common component from a large number of macroeconomic indicators, and use the estimates to compute out-of-sample forecasts under a recursive and a rolling scheme with different window sizes. Forecasts from factor models are compared with those from AR(p) models as well as IS- and Phillips-curve models. We find that factor models can improve the forecast accuracy relative to standard benchmark models, for horizons of up to 8 quarters. Forecasts from our proposed factor models are also less prone to committing large errors, in particular when the horizon increases. We further show that the choice of the sampling-scheme has a large influence on the overall forecast accuracy, with smallest rolling-window samples generating superior results to larger samples, implying that using "limited-memory" estimators contribute to improve the quality of the forecasts.Econometric and statistical methods

Factor Analysis of a Large DSGE Model

We study the workings of the factor analysis of high-dimensional data using arti…cial series generated from a large, multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The objective is to use the DSGE model as a laboratory that allow us to shed some light on the practical bene…ts and limitations of using factor analysis techniques on economic data. We explain in what sense the arti…cial data can be thought of having a factor structure, study the theoretical and fi…nite sample properties of the principal components estimates of the factor space, investigate the substantive reason(s) for the good performance of diffusion index forecasts, and assess the quality of the factor analysis of highly dissagregated data. In all our exercises, we explain the precise relationship between the factors and the basic macroeconomic shocks postulated by the model.Multisector economies, principal components, forecasting, pervasiveness, FAVAR

Core inflation in the Euro area: an application of the generalized dynamic factor model

Since the second half of the nineties the euro area has been subject to a considerable accumulation of temporary and idiosyncratic price shocks. Core inflation indicators for the euro area are thus of utmost interest. Based on euro area-wide data core inflation in this paper is analyzed by means of an indicator derived from the generalized dynamic factor model. This indicator reveals that HICP inflation strongly exaggerated both the decline as well as the increase in the price trend in 1999 and 2000/2001. Our results reinforce those achieved by Cristadoro, Forni, Reichlin and Versonese (2001) based on euro area country data which indicates the robustness of the indicator. Klassifikation: C33, E3

Some issues in the 'archaeology' of software evolution

During a software project's lifetime, the software goes through many changes, as components are added, removed and modified to fix bugs and add new features. This paper is intended as a lightweight introduction to some of the issues arising from an `archaeological' investigation of software evolution. We use our own work to look at some of the challenges faced, techniques used, findings obtained, and lessons learnt when measuring and visualising the historical changes that happen during the evolution of software

The Dynamics of Innovation and Investment, with application to Australia 1984 - 1998

Ever since the start of the Industrial Revolution in Britain in the 1760s, innovation and investment have been crucial elements in economic explanations of the dynamics of capitalism. Classical economics recognises that innovation embodied in the form of new machines through fixed capital investment is the essential process for realising economic development. This study sets up a theoretical linkage between innovation and investment in historical time, without reference to any static equilibrium model. In this way, the relationship between instability of cycles and trend growth can be clearly identified. A theoretical framework and specific model of innovation and investment are developed. This is followed by an empirical investigation in support of this analysis to show plausibility in the important linkages between innovation and investment that have been missed when examined through static analysis of these relations. The statistical analysis is based on recent Australian industry sector data (1984-98) on R&D and capital expenditure in panel data form and in evolutionary industry life-cycle form. Conclusions from this work indicate the need to re-examine the way strategies are formed and developed in both the private and public sectors for more effective appropriation of innovation into the investment planning process.economics of technology ;

Recursion Aware Modeling and Discovery For Hierarchical Software Event Log Analysis (Extended)

This extended paper presents 1) a novel hierarchy and recursion extension to the process tree model; and 2) the first, recursion aware process model discovery technique that leverages hierarchical information in event logs, typically available for software systems. This technique allows us to analyze the operational processes of software systems under real-life conditions at multiple levels of granularity. The work can be positioned in-between reverse engineering and process mining. An implementation of the proposed approach is available as a ProM plugin. Experimental results based on real-life (software) event logs demonstrate the feasibility and usefulness of the approach and show the huge potential to speed up discovery by exploiting the available hierarchy.Comment: Extended version (14 pages total) of the paper Recursion Aware Modeling and Discovery For Hierarchical Software Event Log Analysis. This Technical Report version includes the guarantee proofs for the proposed discovery algorithm

Structured Review of the Evidence for Effects of Code Duplication on Software Quality

This report presents the detailed steps and results of a structured review of code clone literature. The aim of the review is to investigate the evidence for the claim that code duplication has a negative effect on code changeability. This report contains only the details of the review for which there is not enough place to include them in the companion paper published at a conference (Hordijk, Ponisio et al. 2009 - Harmfulness of Code Duplication - A Structured Review of the Evidence)