35,774 research outputs found

    Duration and Interval Hidden Markov Model for Sequential Data Analysis

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    Analysis of sequential event data has been recognized as one of the essential tools in data modeling and analysis field. In this paper, after the examination of its technical requirements and issues to model complex but practical situation, we propose a new sequential data model, dubbed Duration and Interval Hidden Markov Model (DI-HMM), that efficiently represents "state duration" and "state interval" of data events. This has significant implications to play an important role in representing practical time-series sequential data. This eventually provides an efficient and flexible sequential data retrieval. Numerical experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed DI-HMM

    A Bayesian Consistent Dual Ensemble Kalman Filter for State-Parameter Estimation in Subsurface Hydrology

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    Ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF) is an efficient approach to addressing uncertainties in subsurface groundwater models. The EnKF sequentially integrates field data into simulation models to obtain a better characterization of the model's state and parameters. These are generally estimated following joint and dual filtering strategies, in which, at each assimilation cycle, a forecast step by the model is followed by an update step with incoming observations. The Joint-EnKF directly updates the augmented state-parameter vector while the Dual-EnKF employs two separate filters, first estimating the parameters and then estimating the state based on the updated parameters. In this paper, we reverse the order of the forecast-update steps following the one-step-ahead (OSA) smoothing formulation of the Bayesian filtering problem, based on which we propose a new dual EnKF scheme, the Dual-EnKFOSA_{\rm OSA}. Compared to the Dual-EnKF, this introduces a new update step to the state in a fully consistent Bayesian framework, which is shown to enhance the performance of the dual filtering approach without any significant increase in the computational cost. Numerical experiments are conducted with a two-dimensional synthetic groundwater aquifer model to assess the performance and robustness of the proposed Dual-EnKFOSA_{\rm OSA}, and to evaluate its results against those of the Joint- and Dual-EnKFs. The proposed scheme is able to successfully recover both the hydraulic head and the aquifer conductivity, further providing reliable estimates of their uncertainties. Compared with the standard Joint- and Dual-EnKFs, the proposed scheme is found more robust to different assimilation settings, such as the spatial and temporal distribution of the observations, and the level of noise in the data. Based on our experimental setups, it yields up to 25% more accurate state and parameters estimates
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