937 research outputs found
Advances in machine learning algorithms for financial risk management
In this thesis, three novel machine learning techniques are introduced to address distinct
yet interrelated challenges involved in financial risk management tasks. These approaches
collectively offer a comprehensive strategy, beginning with the precise classification of credit
risks, advancing through the nuanced forecasting of financial asset volatility, and ending
with the strategic optimisation of financial asset portfolios.
Firstly, a Hybrid Dual-Resampling and Cost-Sensitive technique has been proposed to combat the prevalent issue of class imbalance in financial datasets, particularly in credit risk
assessment. The key process involves the creation of heuristically balanced datasets to effectively address the problem. It uses a resampling technique based on Gaussian mixture
modelling to generate a synthetic minority class from the minority class data and concurrently uses k-means clustering on the majority class. Feature selection is then performed
using the Extra Tree Ensemble technique. Subsequently, a cost-sensitive logistic regression
model is then applied to predict the probability of default using the heuristically balanced
datasets. The results underscore the effectiveness of our proposed technique, with superior
performance observed in comparison to other imbalanced preprocessing approaches. This
advancement in credit risk classification lays a solid foundation for understanding individual
financial behaviours, a crucial first step in the broader context of financial risk management.
Building on this foundation, the thesis then explores the forecasting of financial asset volatility, a critical aspect of understanding market dynamics. A novel model that combines a
Triple Discriminator Generative Adversarial Network with a continuous wavelet transform
is proposed. The proposed model has the ability to decompose volatility time series into
signal-like and noise-like frequency components, to allow the separate detection and monitoring of non-stationary volatility data. The network comprises of a wavelet transform
component consisting of continuous wavelet transforms and inverse wavelet transform components, an auto-encoder component made up of encoder and decoder networks, and a
Generative Adversarial Network consisting of triple Discriminator and Generator networks.
The proposed Generative Adversarial Network employs an ensemble of unsupervised loss derived from the Generative Adversarial Network component during training, supervised
loss and reconstruction loss as part of its framework. Data from nine financial assets are
employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. This approach not only
enhances our understanding of market fluctuations but also bridges the gap between individual credit risk assessment and macro-level market analysis.
Finally the thesis ends with a novel proposal of a novel technique or Portfolio optimisation. This involves the use of a model-free reinforcement learning strategy for portfolio
optimisation using historical Low, High, and Close prices of assets as input with weights of
assets as output. A deep Capsules Network is employed to simulate the investment strategy, which involves the reallocation of the different assets to maximise the expected return
on investment based on deep reinforcement learning. To provide more learning stability in
an online training process, a Markov Differential Sharpe Ratio reward function has been
proposed as the reinforcement learning objective function. Additionally, a Multi-Memory
Weight Reservoir has also been introduced to facilitate the learning process and optimisation of computed asset weights, helping to sequentially re-balance the portfolio throughout
a specified trading period. The use of the insights gained from volatility forecasting into
this strategy shows the interconnected nature of the financial markets. Comparative experiments with other models demonstrated that our proposed technique is capable of achieving
superior results based on risk-adjusted reward performance measures.
In a nut-shell, this thesis not only addresses individual challenges in financial risk management but it also incorporates them into a comprehensive framework; from enhancing the
accuracy of credit risk classification, through the improvement and understanding of market
volatility, to optimisation of investment strategies. These methodologies collectively show
the potential of the use of machine learning to improve financial risk management
Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) Applications in Payment, Clearing, and Settlement Systems:A Study of Blockchain-Based Payment Barriers and Potential Solutions, and DLT Application in Central Bank Payment System Functions
Payment, clearing, and settlement systems are essential components of the financial markets and exert considerable influence on the overall economy. While there have been considerable technological advancements in payment systems, the conventional systems still depend on centralized architecture, with inherent limitations and risks. The emergence of Distributed ledger technology (DLT) is being regarded as a potential solution to transform payment and settlement processes and address certain challenges posed by the centralized architecture of traditional payment systems (Bank for International Settlements, 2017). While proof-of-concept projects have demonstrated the technical feasibility of DLT, significant barriers still hinder its adoption and implementation. The overarching objective of this thesis is to contribute to the developing area of DLT application in payment, clearing and settlement systems, which is still in its initial stages of applications development and lacks a substantial body of scholarly literature and empirical research. This is achieved by identifying the socio-technical barriers to adoption and diffusion of blockchain-based payment systems and the solutions proposed to address them. Furthermore, the thesis examines and classifies various applications of DLT in central bank payment system functions, offering valuable insights into the motivations, DLT platforms used, and consensus algorithms for applicable use cases. To achieve these objectives, the methodology employed involved a systematic literature review (SLR) of academic literature on blockchain-based payment systems. Furthermore, we utilized a thematic analysis approach to examine data collected from various sources regarding the use of DLT applications in central bank payment system functions, such as central bank white papers, industry reports, and policy documents. The study's findings on blockchain-based payment systems barriers and proposed solutions; challenge the prevailing emphasis on technological and regulatory barriers in the literature and industry discourse regarding the adoption and implementation of blockchain-based payment systems. It highlights the importance of considering the broader socio-technical context and identifying barriers across all five dimensions of the social technical framework, including technological, infrastructural, user practices/market, regulatory, and cultural dimensions. Furthermore, the research identified seven DLT applications in central bank payment system functions. These are grouped into three overarching themes: central banks' operational responsibilities in payment and settlement systems, issuance of central bank digital money, and regulatory oversight/supervisory functions, along with other ancillary functions. Each of these applications has unique motivations or value proposition, which is the underlying reason for utilizing in that particular use case
Multidisciplinary perspectives on Artificial Intelligence and the law
This open access book presents an interdisciplinary, multi-authored, edited collection of chapters on Artificial Intelligence (‘AI’) and the Law. AI technology has come to play a central role in the modern data economy. Through a combination of increased computing power, the growing availability of data and the advancement of algorithms, AI has now become an umbrella term for some of the most transformational technological breakthroughs of this age. The importance of AI stems from both the opportunities that it offers and the challenges that it entails. While AI applications hold the promise of economic growth and efficiency gains, they also create significant risks and uncertainty. The potential and perils of AI have thus come to dominate modern discussions of technology and ethics – and although AI was initially allowed to largely develop without guidelines or rules, few would deny that the law is set to play a fundamental role in shaping the future of AI. As the debate over AI is far from over, the need for rigorous analysis has never been greater. This book thus brings together contributors from different fields and backgrounds to explore how the law might provide answers to some of the most pressing questions raised by AI. An outcome of the Católica Research Centre for the Future of Law and its interdisciplinary working group on Law and Artificial Intelligence, it includes contributions by leading scholars in the fields of technology, ethics and the law.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio
LIPIcs, Volume 251, ITCS 2023, Complete Volume
LIPIcs, Volume 251, ITCS 2023, Complete Volum
Mapping the Focal Points of WordPress: A Software and Critical Code Analysis
Programming languages or code can be examined through numerous analytical lenses. This project is a critical analysis of WordPress, a prevalent web content management system, applying four modes of inquiry. The project draws on theoretical perspectives and areas of study in media, software, platforms, code, language, and power structures. The applied research is based on Critical Code Studies, an interdisciplinary field of study that holds the potential as a theoretical lens and methodological toolkit to understand computational code beyond its function. The project begins with a critical code analysis of WordPress, examining its origins and source code and mapping selected vulnerabilities. An examination of the influence of digital and computational thinking follows this. The work also explores the intersection of code patching and vulnerability management and how code shapes our sense of control, trust, and empathy, ultimately arguing that a rhetorical-cultural lens can be used to better understand code\u27s controlling influence. Recurring themes throughout these analyses and observations are the connections to power and vulnerability in WordPress\u27 code and how cultural, processual, rhetorical, and ethical implications can be expressed through its code, creating a particular worldview. Code\u27s emergent properties help illustrate how human values and practices (e.g., empathy, aesthetics, language, and trust) become encoded in software design and how people perceive the software through its worldview. These connected analyses reveal cultural, processual, and vulnerability focal points and the influence these entanglements have concerning WordPress as code, software, and platform. WordPress is a complex sociotechnical platform worthy of further study, as is the interdisciplinary merging of theoretical perspectives and disciplines to critically examine code. Ultimately, this project helps further enrich the field by introducing focal points in code, examining sociocultural phenomena within the code, and offering techniques to apply critical code methods
Mining Butterflies in Streaming Graphs
This thesis introduces two main-memory systems sGrapp and sGradd for performing the fundamental analytic tasks of biclique counting and concept drift detection over a streaming graph. A data-driven heuristic is used to architect the systems. To this end, initially, the growth patterns of bipartite streaming graphs are mined and the emergence principles of streaming motifs are discovered. Next, the discovered principles are (a) explained by a graph generator called sGrow; and (b) utilized to establish the requirements for efficient, effective, explainable, and interpretable management and processing of streams. sGrow is used to benchmark stream analytics, particularly in the case of concept drift detection.
sGrow displays robust realization of streaming growth patterns independent of initial conditions, scale and temporal characteristics, and model configurations. Extensive evaluations confirm the simultaneous effectiveness and efficiency of sGrapp and sGradd. sGrapp achieves mean absolute percentage error up to 0.05/0.14 for the cumulative butterfly count in streaming graphs with uniform/non-uniform temporal distribution and a processing throughput of 1.5 million data records per second. The throughput and estimation error of sGrapp are 160x higher and 0.02x lower than baselines. sGradd demonstrates an improving performance over time, achieves zero false detection rates when there is not any drift and when drift is already detected, and detects sequential drifts in zero to a few seconds after their occurrence regardless of drift intervals
Advances and Applications of DSmT for Information Fusion. Collected Works, Volume 5
This fifth volume on Advances and Applications of DSmT for Information Fusion collects theoretical and applied contributions of researchers working in different fields of applications and in mathematics, and is available in open-access. The collected contributions of this volume have either been published or presented after disseminating the fourth volume in 2015 in international conferences, seminars, workshops and journals, or they are new. The contributions of each part of this volume are chronologically ordered.
First Part of this book presents some theoretical advances on DSmT, dealing mainly with modified Proportional Conflict Redistribution Rules (PCR) of combination with degree of intersection, coarsening techniques, interval calculus for PCR thanks to set inversion via interval analysis (SIVIA), rough set classifiers, canonical decomposition of dichotomous belief functions, fast PCR fusion, fast inter-criteria analysis with PCR, and improved PCR5 and PCR6 rules preserving the (quasi-)neutrality of (quasi-)vacuous belief assignment in the fusion of sources of evidence with their Matlab codes.
Because more applications of DSmT have emerged in the past years since the apparition of the fourth book of DSmT in 2015, the second part of this volume is about selected applications of DSmT mainly in building change detection, object recognition, quality of data association in tracking, perception in robotics, risk assessment for torrent protection and multi-criteria decision-making, multi-modal image fusion, coarsening techniques, recommender system, levee characterization and assessment, human heading perception, trust assessment, robotics, biometrics, failure detection, GPS systems, inter-criteria analysis, group decision, human activity recognition, storm prediction, data association for autonomous vehicles, identification of maritime vessels, fusion of support vector machines (SVM), Silx-Furtif RUST code library for information fusion including PCR rules, and network for ship classification.
Finally, the third part presents interesting contributions related to belief functions in general published or presented along the years since 2015. These contributions are related with decision-making under uncertainty, belief approximations, probability transformations, new distances between belief functions, non-classical multi-criteria decision-making problems with belief functions, generalization of Bayes theorem, image processing, data association, entropy and cross-entropy measures, fuzzy evidence numbers, negator of belief mass, human activity recognition, information fusion for breast cancer therapy, imbalanced data classification, and hybrid techniques mixing deep learning with belief functions as well
Hybrid human-AI driven open personalized education
Attaining those skills that match labor market demand is getting increasingly complicated as prerequisite knowledge, skills, and abilities are evolving dynamically through an uncontrollable and seemingly unpredictable process. Furthermore, people's interests in gaining knowledge pertaining to their personal life (e.g., hobbies and life-hacks) are also increasing dramatically in recent decades. In this situation, anticipating and addressing the learning needs are fundamental challenges to twenty-first century education. The need for such technologies has escalated due to the COVID-19 pandemic, where online education became a key player in all types of training programs. The burgeoning availability of data, not only on the demand side but also on the supply side (in the form of open/free educational resources) coupled with smart technologies, may provide a fertile ground for addressing this challenge. Therefore, this thesis aims to contribute to the literature about the utilization of (open and free-online) educational resources toward goal-driven personalized informal learning, by developing a novel Human-AI based system, called eDoer.
In this thesis, we discuss all the new knowledge that was created in order to complete the system development, which includes 1) prototype development and qualitative user validation, 2) decomposing the preliminary requirements into meaningful components, 3) implementation and validation of each component, and 4) a final requirement analysis followed by combining the implemented components in order develop and validate the planned system (eDoer).
All in all, our proposed system 1) derives the skill requirements for a wide range of occupations (as skills and jobs are typical goals in informal learning) through an analysis of online job vacancy announcements, 2) decomposes skills into learning topics, 3) collects a variety of open/free online educational resources that address those topics, 4) checks the quality of those resources and topic relevance using our developed intelligent prediction models, 5) helps learners to set their learning goals, 6) recommends personalized learning pathways and learning content based on individual learning goals, and 7) provides assessment services for learners to monitor their progress towards their desired learning objectives. Accordingly, we created a learning dashboard focusing on three Data Science related jobs and conducted an initial validation of eDoer through a randomized experiment. Controlling for the effects of prior knowledge as assessed by the pretest, the randomized experiment provided tentative support for the hypothesis that learners who engaged with personal eDoer recommendations attain higher scores on the posttest than those who did not. The hypothesis that learners who received personalized content in terms of format, length, level of detail, and content type, would achieve higher scores than those receiving non-personalized content was not supported as a statistically significant result
- …