Necessary and sufficient conditions for asymptotically optimal linear prediction of random fields on compact metric spaces

Optimal linear prediction (also known as kriging) of a random field $\{Z(x)\}_{x\in\mathcal{X}}$ indexed by a compact metric space $(\mathcal{X},d_{\mathcal{X}})$ can be obtained if the mean value function $m\colon\mathcal{X}\to\mathbb{R}$ and the covariance function $\varrho\colon\mathcal{X}\times\mathcal{X}\to\mathbb{R}$ of $Z$ are known. We consider the problem of predicting the value of $Z(x^*)$ at some location $x^*\in\mathcal{X}$ based on observations at locations $\{x_j\}_{j=1}^n$ which accumulate at $x^*$ as $n\to\infty$ (or, more generally, predicting $f(Z)$ based on $\{ f_j(Z) \}_{j=1}^n$ for linear functionals $f, f_1, \ldots, f_n$). Our main result characterizes the asymptotic performance of linear predictors (as $n$ increases) based on an incorrect second order structure $(\tilde{m},\tilde{\varrho})$, without any restrictive assumptions on $\varrho, \tilde{\varrho}$ such as stationarity. We, for the first time, provide necessary and sufficient conditions on $(\tilde{m},\tilde{\varrho})$ for asymptotic optimality of the corresponding linear predictor holding uniformly with respect to $f$. These general results are illustrated by an example on the sphere $\mathbb{S}^2$ for the case of two isotropic covariance functions.Comment: 36 page

Relativistic quantum clocks

The conflict between quantum theory and the theory of relativity is exemplified in their treatment of time. We examine the ways in which their conceptions differ, and describe a semiclassical clock model combining elements of both theories. The results obtained with this clock model in flat spacetime are reviewed, and the problem of generalizing the model to curved spacetime is discussed, before briefly describing an experimental setup which could be used to test of the model. Taking an operationalist view, where time is that which is measured by a clock, we discuss the conclusions that can be drawn from these results, and what clues they contain for a full quantum relativistic theory of time.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures. Invited contribution for the proceedings for "Workshop on Time in Physics" Zurich 201