Adoption as a Social Marker: Innovation Diffusion with Outgroup Aversion

Social identities are among the key factors driving behavior in complex societies. Signals of social identity are known to influence individual behaviors in the adoption of innovations. Yet the population-level consequences of identity signaling on the diffusion of innovations are largely unknown. Here we use both analytical and agent-based modeling to consider the spread of a beneficial innovation in a structured population in which there exist two groups who are averse to being mistaken for each other. We investigate the dynamics of adoption and consider the role of structural factors such as demographic skew and communication scale on population-level outcomes. We find that outgroup aversion can lead to adoption being delayed or suppressed in one group, and that population-wide underadoption is common. Comparing the two models, we find that differential adoption can arise due to structural constraints on information flow even in the absence of intrinsic between-group differences in adoption rates. Further, we find that patterns of polarization in adoption at both local and global scales depend on the details of demographic organization and the scale of communication. This research has particular relevance to widely beneficial but identity-relevant products and behaviors, such as green technologies, where overall levels of adoption determine the positive benefits that accrue to society at large.Comment: 26 pages, 10 figure

The product life cycle of durable goods

The model presented here derives the product life cycle of durable goods. It is based on the idea that the purchase process consists of first purchase and repurchase. First purchase is determined by the market penetration process (diffusion process), while repurchase is the sum of replacement and multiple purchase. The key property of durables goods is to have a mean lifetime in the order of several years. Therefore replacement purchase creates periodic variations of the unit sales (Juglar cycles) having its origin in the initial diffusion process. The theory suggests that there exists two diffusion processes. The first can be described by Bass diffusion and is related to the information spreading process within the social network of potential consumers. The other diffusion process comes into play, when the price of the durable is such, that only those consumers with a sufficient personal income can afford the good. We have to distinguish between a monopoly market and a polypoly/oligopoly market. In the first case periodic variations of the total sales occur caused by the initial Bass diffusion, even when the price is constant. In the latter case the mutual competition between the brands leads with time to a decrease of the mean price. This change is associated with an effective increase of the market volume, which can be interpreted as a diffusion process. Based on an evolutionary approach, it can be shown that the mean price decreases exponentially and the corresponding diffusion process is governed by Gompertz equation (Gompertz diffusion). Most remarkable is that Gibrat's rule of proportionate growth is a direct consequence of the competition between the brands. The model allows a derivation of the lognormal size distribution of product sales and the logistic replacement of durables in competition. A comparison with empirical data suggests that the theory describes the main trend of the product life cycle superimposed by short term events like the introduction of new models.Product Life Cycle, Consumer Durables, Product Diffusion, Bass Diffusion; Competition; Gompertz Diffusion; Replicator Equation; Logistic Growth; Evolutionary Economics; Monopoly; Takeoff; Gibrat's Rule; Juglar Cycles;

High-end fashion manufacturing in the UK - product, process and vision: Recommendations for a Designer and Fashion Manufacturer Alliance and a Designer Innovation and Sampling Centre

The Centre for Fashion Enterprise (CFE) was commissioned by the Department of Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) to undertake a feasibility study to explore fully the market need for a new high-end production hub. This was in direct response to the need highlighted in the DCMS report, Creative Britain - New Talents For The New Economy, published in 2008. This study has confirmed that there is a need. However the need is for a sampling and innovation facility rather than a production hub. Designers reported a shortage of high quality sampling capacity in the UK, as well as difficulties in getting small quantities produced. Additionally, they do not know where or how to source appropriate manufacturing in the UK, Europe or globally, at the quality the market requires

Evolutionary Model of the Growth and Size of Firms

The key idea of this model is that firms are the result of an evolutionary process. Based on demand and supply considerations the evolutionary model presented here derives explicitly Gibrat's law of proportionate effects as the result of the competition between products. Applying a preferential attachment mechanism for firms the theory allows to establish the size distribution of products and firms. Also established are the growth rate and price distribution of consumer goods. Taking into account the characteristic property of human activities to occur in bursts, the model allows also an explanation of the size-variance relationship of the growth rate distribution of products and firms. Further the product life cycle, the learning (experience) curve and the market size in terms of the mean number of firms that can survive in a market are derived. The model also suggests the existence of an invariant of a market as the ratio of total profit to total revenue. The relationship between a neo-classic and an evolutionary view of a market is discussed. The comparison with empirical investigations suggests that the theory is able to describe the main stylized facts concerning the size and growth of firms

Evolutionary Model of the Personal Income Distribution

The aim of this work is to establish the personal income distribution from the elementary constituents of a free market; products of a representative good and agents forming the economic network. The economy is treated as a self-organized system. Based on the idea that the dynamics of an economy is governed by slow modes, the model suggests that for short time intervals a fixed ratio of total labour income (capital income) to net income exists (Cobb-Douglas relation). Explicitly derived is Gibrat's law from an evolutionary market dynamics of short term fluctuations. The total private income distribution is shown to consist of four main parts. From capital income of private firms the income distribution contains a lognormal distribution for small and a Pareto tail for large incomes. Labour income contributes an exponential distribution. Also included is the income from a social insurance system, approximated by a Gaussian peak. The evolutionary model is able to reproduce the stylized facts of the income distribution, shown by a comparison with empirical data of a high resolution income distribution. The theory suggests that in a free market competition between products is ultimately the origin of the uneven income distribution

Fashion, Novelty and Optimality: An application from Physics

We apply a physical based model to describe the clothes fashion market. Every time a new outlet appears on the market, it can invade the market under certain specific conditions. Hence, the "old'' outlet can be completely dominated and disappears. Each creator competes for a finite population of agents. Fashion phenomena are shown to result from a collective phenomenon produced by local individual imitation effects. We assume that, in each step of the imitation process, agents only interact with a subset rather than with the whole set of agents. People are actually more likely to influence (and be influenced by) their close ''neighbours''. Accordingly we discuss which strategy is best fitted for new producers when people are either simply organised into anonymous reference groups or when they are organised in social groups hierarchically ordered. While counterfeits are shown to reinforce the first strategy, creating social leaders can permit to avoid them.Comment: 24 pages, 7 figure

Using Hybrid Agent-Based Systems to Model Spatially-Influenced Retail Markets

One emerging area of agent-based modelling is retail markets; however, there are problems with modelling such systems. The vast size of such markets makes individual-level modelling, for example of customers, difficult and this is particularly true where the markets are spatially complex. There is an emerging recognition that the power of agent-based systems is enhanced when integrated with other AI-based and conventional approaches. The resulting hybrid models are powerful tools that combine the flexibility of the agent-based methodology with the strengths of more traditional modelling. Such combinations allow us to consider agent-based modelling of such large-scale and complex retail markets. In particular, this paper examines the application of a hybrid agent-based model to a retail petrol market. An agent model was constructed and experiments were conducted to determine whether the trends and patterns of the retail petrol market could be replicated. Consumer behaviour was incorporated by the inclusion of a spatial interaction (SI) model and a network component. The model is shown to reproduce the spatial patterns seen in the real market, as well as well known behaviours of the market such as the "rocket and feathers" effect. In addition the model was successful at predicting the long term profitability of individual retailers. The results show that agent-based modelling has the ability to improve on existing approaches to modelling retail markets.Agents, Spatial Interaction Model, Retail Markets, Networks