Unsupervised Regression with Applications to Nonlinear System Identification

We derive a cost functional for estimating the relationship between high-dimensional observations and the low-dimensional process that generated them with no input-output examples. Limiting our search to invertible observation functions confers numerous benefits, including a compact representation and no suboptimal local minima. Our approximation algorithms for optimizing this cost functional are fast and give diagnostic bounds on the quality of their solution. Our method can be viewed as a manifold learning algorithm that utilizes a prior on the low-dimensional manifold coordinates. The benefits of taking advantage of such priors in manifold learning and searching for the inverse observation functions in system identification are demonstrated empirically by learning to track moving targets from raw measurements in a sensor network setting and in an RFID tracking experiment

Bayesian Factorial Linear Gaussian State-Space Models for Biosignal Decomposition

We discuss a method to extract independent dynamical systems underlying a single or multiple channels of observation. In particular, we search for one dimensional subsignals to aid the interpretability of the decomposition. The method uses an approximate Bayesian analysis to determine automatically the number and appropriate complexity of the underlying dynamics, with a preference for the simplest solution. We apply this method to unfiltered EEG signals to discover low complexity sources with preferential spectral properties, demonstrating improved interpretability of the extracted sources over related methods

Learning to Transform Time Series with a Few Examples

We describe a semi-supervised regression algorithm that learns to transform one time series into another time series given examples of the transformation. This algorithm is applied to tracking, where a time series of observations from sensors is transformed to a time series describing the pose of a target. Instead of defining and implementing such transformations for each tracking task separately, our algorithm learns a memoryless transformation of time series from a few example input-output mappings. The algorithm searches for a smooth function that fits the training examples and, when applied to the input time series, produces a time series that evolves according to assumed dynamics. The learning procedure is fast and lends itself to a closed-form solution. It is closely related to nonlinear system identification and manifold learning techniques. We demonstrate our algorithm on the tasks of tracking RFID tags from signal strength measurements, recovering the pose of rigid objects, deformable bodies, and articulated bodies from video sequences. For these tasks, this algorithm requires significantly fewer examples compared to fully-supervised regression algorithms or semi-supervised learning algorithms that do not take the dynamics of the output time series into account