Complexity of probabilistic inference in belief nets--an experimental study

Graduation date: 1991There are three families of exact methods used for probabilistic inference in\ud belief nets. It is necessary to compare them and analyze the advantages and\ud the disadvantages of each algorithm, and know the time cost of making\ud inferences in a given belief network. This paper discusses the factors that\ud influence the computation time of each algorithm, presents the predictive model\ud of the time complexity for each algorithm and shows the statistical results of\ud testing the algorithms with randomly generated belief networks

Incremental Probabilistic Inference

Propositional representation services such as truth maintenance systems offer powerful support for incremental, interleaved, problem-model construction and evaluation. Probabilistic inference systems, in contrast, have lagged behind in supporting this incrementality typically demanded by problem solvers. The problem, we argue, is that the basic task of probabilistic inference is typically formulated at too large a grain-size. We show how a system built around a smaller grain-size inference task can have the desired incrementality and serve as the basis for a low-level (propositional) probabilistic representation service.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Ninth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1993

Is 'Unsupervised Learning' a Misconceived Term?

Is all of machine learning supervised to some degree? The field of machine learning has traditionally been categorized pedagogically into $supervised~vs~unsupervised~learning$; where supervised learning has typically referred to learning from labeled data, while unsupervised learning has typically referred to learning from unlabeled data. In this paper, we assert that all machine learning is in fact supervised to some degree, and that the scope of supervision is necessarily commensurate to the scope of learning potential. In particular, we argue that clustering algorithms such as k-means, and dimensionality reduction algorithms such as principal component analysis, variational autoencoders, and deep belief networks are each internally supervised by the data itself to learn their respective representations of its features. Furthermore, these algorithms are not capable of external inference until their respective outputs (clusters, principal components, or representation codes) have been identified and externally labeled in effect. As such, they do not suffice as examples of unsupervised learning. We propose that the categorization `supervised vs unsupervised learning' be dispensed with, and instead, learning algorithms be categorized as either $internally~or~externally~supervised$ (or both). We believe this change in perspective will yield new fundamental insights into the structure and character of data and of learning algorithms.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figure

Learning Class-Level Bayes Nets for Relational Data

Many databases store data in relational format, with different types of entities and information about links between the entities. The field of statistical-relational learning (SRL) has developed a number of new statistical models for such data. In this paper we focus on learning class-level or first-order dependencies, which model the general database statistics over attributes of linked objects and links (e.g., the percentage of A grades given in computer science classes). Class-level statistical relationships are important in themselves, and they support applications like policy making, strategic planning, and query optimization. Most current SRL methods find class-level dependencies, but their main task is to support instance-level predictions about the attributes or links of specific entities. We focus only on class-level prediction, and describe algorithms for learning class-level models that are orders of magnitude faster for this task. Our algorithms learn Bayes nets with relational structure, leveraging the efficiency of single-table nonrelational Bayes net learners. An evaluation of our methods on three data sets shows that they are computationally feasible for realistic table sizes, and that the learned structures represent the statistical information in the databases well. After learning compiles the database statistics into a Bayes net, querying these statistics via Bayes net inference is faster than with SQL queries, and does not depend on the size of the database.Comment: 14 pages (2 column

Automating Computer Bottleneck Detection with Belief Nets

We describe an application of belief networks to the diagnosis of bottlenecks in computer systems. The technique relies on a high-level functional model of the interaction between application workloads, the Windows NT operating system, and system hardware. Given a workload description, the model predicts the values of observable system counters available from the Windows NT performance monitoring tool. Uncertainty in workloads, predictions, and counter values are characterized with Gaussian distributions. During diagnostic inference, we use observed performance monitor values to find the most probable assignment to the workload parameters. In this paper we provide some background on automated bottleneck detection, describe the structure of the system model, and discuss empirical procedures for model calibration and verification. Part of the calibration process includes generating a dataset to estimate a multivariate Gaussian error model. Initial results in diagnosing bottlenecks are presented.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Eleventh Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1995

A General Algorithm for Approximate Inference and its Application to Hybrid Bayes Nets

The clique tree algorithm is the standard method for doing inference in Bayesian networks. It works by manipulating clique potentials - distributions over the variables in a clique. While this approach works well for many networks, it is limited by the need to maintain an exact representation of the clique potentials. This paper presents a new unified approach that combines approximate inference and the clique tree algorithm, thereby circumventing this limitation. Many known approximate inference algorithms can be viewed as instances of this approach. The algorithm essentially does clique tree propagation, using approximate inference to estimate the densities in each clique. In many settings, the computation of the approximate clique potential can be done easily using statistical importance sampling. Iterations are used to gradually improve the quality of the estimation.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Fifteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1999

Real-Time Inference with Large-Scale Temporal Bayes Nets

An increasing number of applications require real-time reasoning under uncertainty with streaming input. The temporal (dynamic) Bayes net formalism provides a powerful representational framework for such applications. However, existing exact inference algorithms for dynamic Bayes nets do not scale to the size of models required for real world applications which often contain hundreds or even thousands of variables for each time slice. In addition, existing algorithms were not developed with real-time processing in mind. We have developed a new computational approach to support real-time exact inference in large temporal Bayes nets. Our approach tackles scalability by recognizing that the complexity of the inference depends on the number of interface nodes between time slices and by exploiting the distinction between static and dynamic nodes in order to reduce the number of interface nodes and to factorize their joint probability distribution. We approach the real-time issue by organizing temporal Bayes nets into static representations, and then using the symbolic probabilistic inference algorithm to derive analytic expressions for the static representations. The parts of these expressions that do not change at each time step are pre-computed. The remaining parts are compiled into efficient procedural code so that the memory and CPU resources required by the inference are small and fixed.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Eighteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2002

Loglinear models for first-order probabilistic reasoning

Recent work on loglinear models in probabilistic constraint logic programming is applied to first-order probabilistic reasoning. Probabilities are defined directly on the proofs of atomic formulae, and by marginalisation on the atomic formulae themselves. We use Stochastic Logic Programs (SLPs) composed of labelled and unlabelled definite clauses to define the proof probabilities. We have a conservative extension of first-order reasoning, so that, for example, there is a one-one mapping between logical and random variables. We show how, in this framework, Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) can be used to induce the features of a loglinear model from data. We also compare the presented framework with other approaches to first-order probabilistic reasoning.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Fifteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1999

Deep Regression Bayesian Network and Its Applications

Deep directed generative models have attracted much attention recently due to their generative modeling nature and powerful data representation ability. In this paper, we review different structures of deep directed generative models and the learning and inference algorithms associated with the structures. We focus on a specific structure that consists of layers of Bayesian Networks due to the property of capturing inherent and rich dependencies among latent variables. The major difficulty of learning and inference with deep directed models with many latent variables is the intractable inference due to the dependencies among the latent variables and the exponential number of latent variable configurations. Current solutions use variational methods often through an auxiliary network to approximate the posterior probability inference. In contrast, inference can also be performed directly without using any auxiliary network to maximally preserve the dependencies among the latent variables. Specifically, by exploiting the sparse representation with the latent space, max-max instead of max-sum operation can be used to overcome the exponential number of latent configurations. Furthermore, the max-max operation and augmented coordinate ascent are applied to both supervised and unsupervised learning as well as to various inference. Quantitative evaluations on benchmark datasets of different models are given for both data representation and feature learning tasks.Comment: Accepted to IEEE Signal Processing Magazin

Sample-and-Accumulate Algorithms for Belief Updating in Bayes Networks

Belief updating in Bayes nets, a well known computationally hard problem, has recently been approximated by several deterministic algorithms, and by various randomized approximation algorithms. Deterministic algorithms usually provide probability bounds, but have an exponential runtime. Some randomized schemes have a polynomial runtime, but provide only probability estimates. We present randomized algorithms that enumerate high-probability partial instantiations, resulting in probability bounds. Some of these algorithms are also sampling algorithms. Specifically, we introduce and evaluate a variant of backward sampling, both as a sampling algorithm and as a randomized enumeration algorithm. We also relax the implicit assumption used by both sampling and accumulation algorithms, that query nodes must be instantiated in all the samples.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Twelfth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1996