Methods for Employing Real Options Models to Mitigate Risk in R&D Funding Decisions

Government acquisitions requiring research and development (R&D) efforts are fraught with uncertainty. The risks are often mitigated by employing a multi-stage competition, with multiple projects funded initially until a single successful project is selected. While decision-makers recognize they are using a real options approach, analytical tools are often unavailable to evaluate optimal decisions. The use of these techniques for R&D project selection to reduce the uncertainties has been shown to increase overall project value. This dissertation first presents an efficient stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach that managers can use to determine optimal project selection strategies and apply the proposed approach on illustrative numerical examples. While the SDP approach produces optimal solutions for many applications, this approach does not easily accommodate the inclusion of a budget-optimal allocation or side constraints, since its formulation is scenario specific. Thus, we then formulate an integer program (IP), whose solution set is equivalent to the SDP model, but facilitates the incorporation of these features and can be solved using available commercial IP solvers. The one-level IP formulation can solve what is otherwise a nested two-level problem when solved as an SDP. We then compare the performance of both models on differently sized problems. For larger problems, where the IP approach appears to be untenable, we provide heuristics for the two-level SDP formulation to solve problems efficiently. Finally, we apply these methods to carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects in the European Union currently under development that may be subject to public funding. Taking the perspective of a funding agency, we employ the real options models presented in this dissertation for determining optimal funding strategies for CCS project selection. The models demonstrate the improved risk reduction by employing a multi-stage competition and explicitly consider the benefits of knowledge spillover generated by competing projects. We then extend the model to consider two sensitivities: 1) the flexibility to spend the budget among the time periods and 2) optimizing the budget, but specifying each time period's allocation a priori. State size, scenario reduction heuristics and run-times of the models are provided

Operational Research in Education

Operational Research (OR) techniques have been applied, from the early stages of the discipline, to a wide variety of issues in education. At the government level, these include questions of what resources should be allocated to education as a whole and how these should be divided amongst the individual sectors of education and the institutions within the sectors. Another pertinent issue concerns the efficient operation of institutions, how to measure it, and whether resource allocation can be used to incentivise efficiency savings. Local governments, as well as being concerned with issues of resource allocation, may also need to make decisions regarding, for example, the creation and location of new institutions or closure of existing ones, as well as the day-to-day logistics of getting pupils to schools. Issues of concern for managers within schools and colleges include allocating the budgets, scheduling lessons and the assignment of students to courses. This survey provides an overview of the diverse problems faced by government, managers and consumers of education, and the OR techniques which have typically been applied in an effort to improve operations and provide solutions

Budgetary policies and available actions: a generalisation of decision rules for allocation and research decisions

The allocation problem in health care can be characterised as a mathematical programming problem but attempts to incorporate uncertainty in costs and effect have suffered from important limitations. A two stage stochastic mathematical programming formulation is developed and applied to a numerical example to explore and demonstrate the implications of this more general and comprehensive approach. The solution to the allocation problem for different budgets, budgetary policies, and available actions are then demonstrated. This analysis is used to evaluate different budgetary policies and examine the adequacy of standard decision rules in cost-effectiveness analysis. The research decision is then considered alongside the allocation problem. This more general formulation demonstrates that the value of further research depends on: i) the budgetary policy in place; ii) the realisations revealed during the budget period; iii) remedial actions that may be available; and iv) variability in parameters values.

CONSTRAINED MULTI-GROUP PROJECT ALLOCATION USING MAHALANOBIS DISTANCE

Optimal allocation is one of the most active research areas in operation research using binary integer variables. The allocation of multi constrained projects among several options available along a given planning horizon is an especially significant problem in the general area of item classification. The main goal of this dissertation is to develop an analytical approach for selecting projects that would be most attractive from an economic point of view to be developed or allocated among several options, such as in-house engineers and private contractors (in transportation projects). A relevant limiting resource in addition to the availability of funds is the in-house manpower availability. In this thesis, the concept of Mahalanobis distance (MD) will be used as the classification criterion. This is a generalization of the Euclidean distance that takes into account the correlation of the characteristics defining the scope of a project. The desirability of a given project to be allocated to an option is defined in terms of its MD to that particular option. Ideally, each project should be allocated to its closest option. This, however, may not be possible because of the available levels of each relevant resource. The allocation process is formulated mathematically using two Binary Integer Programming (BIP) models. The first formulation maximizes the dollar value of benefits derived by the traveling public from those projects being implemented subject to a budget, total sum of MD, and in-house manpower constraints. The second formulation minimizes the total sum of MD subject to a budget and the in-house manpower constraints. The proposed solution methodology for the BIP models is based on the branchand- bound method. In particular, one of the contributions of this dissertation is the development of a strategy for branching variables and node selection that is consistent with allocation priorities based on MD to improve the branch-and-bound performance level as well as handle a large scale application. The suggested allocation process includes: (a) multiple allocation groups; (b) multiple constraints; (c) different BIP models. Numerical experiments with different projects and options are considered to illustrate the application of the proposed approach

Robust Modeling Framework for Transportation Infrastructure System Protection Under Uncertainty

This dissertation presents a modelling framework that will be useful for decision makers at federal and state levels to establish efficient resource allocation schemes to transportation infrastructures on both strategic and tactical levels. In particular, at the upper level, the highway road network carries traffic flows that rely on the performance of individual bridge infrastructure which is optimized through robust design at lower level. A system optimization model is developed to allocate resources to infrastructure systems considering traffic impact, which aims to reduce infrastructure rehabilitation cost, long term economic cost including travel delays due to realization of future natural disasters such as earthquakes. At the lower level, robust design for each individual bridge is confined by the resources allocated from upper level network optimization model, where optimal rehabilitation strategies are selected to improve its resiliency to hedge against potential disasters. The above two decision making processes are interdependent, thus should not be treated separately. Thus, the resultant modeling framework will be a step forward in the disaster management for transportation infrastructure network. This dissertation first presents a novel formulation and a solution algorithm of network level resource allocation problem. A mean-risk two-stage stochastic programming model is developed with the first-stage considering resources allocation and second-stages shows the response from system travel delays, where the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is specified as the risk measure. A decomposition method based on generalized Benders decomposition is developed to solve the model, with a concerted effort on overcoming the algorithmic challenges imbedded in non-convexity, nonlinearity and non-separability of first- and second- stage variables. The network level model focusing on traffic optimization is further integrated into a bi-level modeling framework. For lower level, a method using finite element analysis to generate a nonlinear relationship between structural performances of bridges and retrofit levels. This relationship was converted to traffic capacity-cost relationship and used as an input for the upper-level model. Results from the Sioux Falls transportation network demonstrated that the integration of both network and FE modeling for individual structure enhanced the effectiveness of retrofit strategies, compared to linear traffic capacity-cost estimation and conventional engineering practice which prioritizes bridges according to the severity of expected damages of bridges. This dissertation also presents a minimax regret formulation of network protection problem that is integrated with earthquake simulations. The lower level model incorporates a seismic analysis component into the framework such that bridge columns are subject to a set of ground motions. Results of seismic response of bridge structures are used to develop a Pareto front of cost-safety-robustness relationship from which bridge damage scenarios are generated as an input of the network level model

Hybrid linear programming to estimate CAP impacts of flatter rates and environmental top-ups

This paper examines evolutions of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) decoupling regime and their impacts on Greek arable agriculture. Policy analysis is performed by using mathematical programming tools. Taking into account increasing uncertainty, we assume that farmers perceive gross margin in intervals rather than as expected crisp values. A bottom-up hybrid model accommodates both profit maximizing and risk prudent attitudes in order to accurately assess farmers’ response. Marginal changes to crop plans are expected so that flatter single payment rates cause significant changes in incomes and subsidies. Nitrogen reduction incentives result in moderate changes putting their effectiveness in question.Interval Linear Programming, Min-Max Regret, Common Agricultural Policy, Arable cropping, Greece

Budget allocation for optimal performance of a university through adjusted-program-budget marginal-analysis

A strategic plan designed by universities globally, as well as in Malaysia, is used asa key indicator of progress using key performance indicators (KPIs) in assessing and equipping the universities with challenges of the educational needs in this millennium. Unfortunately, some universities set up their specific strategies to achieve their KPIs without much consideration to the limited available resources. Particularly, less attention is given to the cost and marginal cost of achieving the KPIs. This research therefore proposes the implementation of adjusted-program-budgeting-marginal-analysis (adjusted-PBMA), an approach used to accommodate both financial and quality output with transparency to allocate the available budget on KPIs, through minor-adjustments on the existing PBMA. Firstly, the similarities between the steps under PBMA and the steps involved in constructing the strategic plan for a university were identified. Next, adjustments were made by suggesting the application of marginal cost and cost consequence analysis to replace the existing qualitative approach in prioritizing the strategies, and the application of integer programming models (IP-Models) for the budget allocation process. The outcome was the new proposed adjusted-PBMA. To illustrate the applicability of the proposed adjusted-PBMA, a case study on Universiti Utara Malaysia for its student development agenda to achieve a six-star SETARA rating was conducted. Six possible IP-Model were developed. The optimal results were obtained, discussed, and compared. This adjusted-PBMA is useful and suitable for other organisations with KPI-oriented programs having limited budget allocation

Capacity allocation and downsizing decisions in project portfolio management.

This paper aims to gain insight into capacity allocation and downsizing decisions in project portfolio management. By downsizing, we mean reducing the scale or size of a project and thereby changing the project's content. We first determine the amount of critical capacity that is optimally allocated to strategic projects with deterministic or stochastic workloads for a single-period problem when the impact of downsizing is known. In order to solve the multi-period problem, we have modeled the behavior of the portfolio in subsequent periods as a single project for which the return on investment can be estimated. Secondly, we investigate how the scarcity of resources affects the (expected) value of projects. The independent (expected) project value is calculated under the assumption of unlimited capacity; in contrast, the dependent (expected) project value incorporates the resource constraints. We find that the dependent project value is equal to the independent project value when the return on investment of the portfolio is sufficiently low. In addition, we determine the relation between the return on investment of the portfolio and the value of a project and conclude that the impact of resource scarcity on the value of a project cannot be fully captured by the common financial practice of adapting the discount rate with the estimated return on investment.Project portfolio management; Downsizing; Stochastic workload;

Time-Cost Tradeoff and Resource-Scheduling Problems in Construction: A State-of-the-Art Review

Duration, cost, and resources are defined as constraints in projects. Consequently, Construction manager needs to balance between theses constraints to ensure that project objectives are met. Choosing the best alternative of each activity is one of the most significant problems in construction management to minimize project duration, project cost and also satisfies resources constraints as well as smoothing resources. Advanced computer technologies could empower construction engineers and project managers to make right, fast and applicable decisions based on accurate data that can be studied, optimized, and quantified with great accuracy. This article strives to find the recent improvements of resource-scheduling problems and time-cost trade off and the interacting between them which can be used in innovating new approaches in construction management. To achieve this goal, a state-of-the-art review, is conducted as a literature sample including articles implying three areas of research; time-cost trade off, constrained resources and unconstrained resources. A content analysis is made to clarify contributions and gaps of knowledge to help suggesting and specifying opportunities for future research