Input-output analysis of stochastic base flow uncertainty

We adopt an input-output approach to analyze the effect of persistent white-in-time structured stochastic base flow perturbations on the mean-square properties of the linearized Navier-Stokes equations. Such base flow variations enter the linearized dynamics as multiplicative sources of uncertainty that can alter the stability of the linearized dynamics and their receptivity to exogenous excitations. Our approach does not rely on costly stochastic simulations or adjoint-based sensitivity analysis. We provide verifiable conditions for mean-square stability and study the frequency response of the flow subject to additive and multiplicative sources of uncertainty using the solution to the generalized Lyapunov equation. For small-amplitude base flow perturbations, we bypass the need to solve large generalized Lyapunov equations by adopting a perturbation analysis. We use our framework to study the destabilizing effects of stochastic base flow variations in transitional parallel flows, and the reliability of numerically estimated mean velocity profiles in turbulent channel flows. We uncover the Reynolds number scaling of critically destabilizing perturbation variances and demonstrate how the wall-normal shape of base flow modulations can influence the amplification of various length scales. Furthermore, we explain the robust amplification of streamwise streaks in the presence of streamwise base flow variations by analyzing the dynamical structure of the governing equations as well as the Reynolds number dependence of the energy spectrum.Comment: 29 pages, 21 figure

Identification of Stochastic Wiener Systems using Indirect Inference

We study identification of stochastic Wiener dynamic systems using so-called indirect inference. The main idea is to first fit an auxiliary model to the observed data and then in a second step, often by simulation, fit a more structured model to the estimated auxiliary model. This two-step procedure can be used when the direct maximum-likelihood estimate is difficult or intractable to compute. One such example is the identification of stochastic Wiener systems, i.e.,~linear dynamic systems with process noise where the output is measured using a non-linear sensor with additive measurement noise. It is in principle possible to evaluate the log-likelihood cost function using numerical integration, but the corresponding optimization problem can be quite intricate. This motivates studying consistent, but sub-optimal, identification methods for stochastic Wiener systems. We will consider indirect inference using the best linear approximation as an auxiliary model. We show that the key to obtain a reliable estimate is to use uncertainty weighting when fitting the stochastic Wiener model to the auxiliary model estimate. The main technical contribution of this paper is the corresponding asymptotic variance analysis. A numerical evaluation is presented based on a first-order finite impulse response system with a cubic non-linearity, for which certain illustrative analytic properties are derived.Comment: The 17th IFAC Symposium on System Identification, SYSID 2015, Beijing, China, October 19-21, 201