2,089 research outputs found
An Experimental Study of Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics
As cryptocurrencies gain popularity and credibility, marketplaces for
cryptocurrencies are growing in importance. Understanding the dynamics of these
markets can help to assess how viable the cryptocurrnency ecosystem is and how
design choices affect market behavior. One existential threat to
cryptocurrencies is dramatic fluctuations in traders' willingness to buy or
sell. Using a novel experimental methodology, we conducted an online experiment
to study how susceptible traders in these markets are to peer influence from
trading behavior. We created bots that executed over one hundred thousand
trades costing less than a penny each in 217 cryptocurrencies over the course
of six months. We find that individual "buy" actions led to short-term
increases in subsequent buy-side activity hundreds of times the size of our
interventions. From a design perspective, we note that the design choices of
the exchange we study may have promoted this and other peer influence effects,
which highlights the potential social and economic impact of HCI in the design
of digital institutions.Comment: CHI 201
Mutual-Excitation of Cryptocurrency Market Returns and Social Media Topics
Cryptocurrencies have recently experienced a new wave of price volatility and
interest; activity within social media communities relating to cryptocurrencies
has increased significantly. There is currently limited documented knowledge of
factors which could indicate future price movements. This paper aims to
decipher relationships between cryptocurrency price changes and topic
discussion on social media to provide, among other things, an understanding of
which topics are indicative of future price movements. To achieve this a
well-known dynamic topic modelling approach is applied to social media
communication to retrieve information about the temporal occurrence of various
topics. A Hawkes model is then applied to find interactions between topics and
cryptocurrency prices. The results show particular topics tend to precede
certain types of price movements, for example the discussion of 'risk and
investment vs trading' being indicative of price falls, the discussion of
'substantial price movements' being indicative of volatility, and the
discussion of 'fundamental cryptocurrency value' by technical communities being
indicative of price rises. The knowledge of topic relationships gained here
could be built into a real-time system, providing trading or alerting signals.Comment: 3rd International Conference on Knowledge Engineering and
Applications (ICKEA 2018) - Moscow, Russia (June 25-27 2018
Pump and Dumps in the Bitcoin Era: Real Time Detection of Cryptocurrency Market Manipulations
In the last years, cryptocurrencies are increasingly popular. Even people who
are not experts have started to invest in these securities and nowadays
cryptocurrency exchanges process transactions for over 100 billion US dollars
per month. However, many cryptocurrencies have low liquidity and therefore they
are highly prone to market manipulation schemes. In this paper, we perform an
in-depth analysis of pump and dump schemes organized by communities over the
Internet. We observe how these communities are organized and how they carry out
the fraud. Then, we report on two case studies related to pump and dump groups.
Lastly, we introduce an approach to detect the fraud in real time that
outperforms the current state of the art, so to help investors stay out of the
market when a pump and dump scheme is in action.Comment: Accepted for publication at The 29th International Conference on
Computer Communications and Networks (ICCCN 2020
Economic Games as Estimators
Discrete event games are discrete time dynamical systems whose state transitions are discrete events caused by actions taken by agents within the game. The agents’ objectives and associated decision rules need not be known to the game designer in order to impose struc- ture on a game’s reachable states. Mechanism design for discrete event games is accomplished by declaring desirable invariant properties and restricting the state transition functions to conserve these properties at every point in time for all admissible actions and for all agents, using techniques familiar from state-feedback control theory. Building upon these connections to control theory, a framework is developed to equip these games with estimation properties of signals which are private to the agents playing the game. Token bonding curves are presented as discrete event games and numerical experiments are used to investigate their signal processing properties with a focus on input-output response dynamics.Series: Working Paper Series / Institute for Cryptoeconomics / Interdisciplinary Researc
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