On the Inability of Markov Models to Capture Criticality in Human Mobility

We examine the non-Markovian nature of human mobility by exposing the inability of Markov models to capture criticality in human mobility. In particular, the assumed Markovian nature of mobility was used to establish a theoretical upper bound on the predictability of human mobility (expressed as a minimum error probability limit), based on temporally correlated entropy. Since its inception, this bound has been widely used and empirically validated using Markov chains. We show that recurrent-neural architectures can achieve significantly higher predictability, surpassing this widely used upper bound. In order to explain this anomaly, we shed light on several underlying assumptions in previous research works that has resulted in this bias. By evaluating the mobility predictability on real-world datasets, we show that human mobility exhibits scale-invariant long-range correlations, bearing similarity to a power-law decay. This is in contrast to the initial assumption that human mobility follows an exponential decay. This assumption of exponential decay coupled with Lempel-Ziv compression in computing Fano's inequality has led to an inaccurate estimation of the predictability upper bound. We show that this approach inflates the entropy, consequently lowering the upper bound on human mobility predictability. We finally highlight that this approach tends to overlook long-range correlations in human mobility. This explains why recurrent-neural architectures that are designed to handle long-range structural correlations surpass the previously computed upper bound on mobility predictability

The role of empirical space-weather models (in a world of physics-based numerical simulations)

Advanced forecasting of space weather requires prediction of near-Earth solar-wind conditions on the basis of remote solar observations. This is typically achieved using numerical magnetohydrodynamic models initiated by photospheric magnetic field observations. The accuracy of such forecasts is being continually improved through better numerics, better determination of the boundary conditions and better representation of the underlying physical processes. Thus it is not unreasonable to conclude that simple, empirical solar-wind forecasts have been rendered obsolete. However, empirical models arguably have more to contribute now than ever before. In addition to providing quick, cheap, independent forecasts, simple empirical models aid in numerical model validation and verification, and add value to numerical model forecasts through parameterization, uncertainty estimation and ‘downscaling’ of sub-grid processes

Links between the personalities, styles and performance in computer programming

There are repetitive patterns in strategies of manipulating source code. For example, modifying source code before acquiring knowledge of how a code works is a depth-first style and reading and understanding before modifying source code is a breadth-first style. To the extent we know there is no study on the influence of personality on them. The objective of this study is to understand the influence of personality on programming styles. We did a correlational study with 65 programmers at the University of Stuttgart. Academic achievement, programming experience, attitude towards programming and five personality factors were measured via self-assessed survey. The programming styles were asked in the survey or mined from the software repositories. Performance in programming was composed of bug-proneness of programmers which was mined from software repositories, the grades they got in a software project course and their estimate of their own programming ability. We did statistical analysis and found that Openness to Experience has a positive association with breadth-first style and Conscientiousness has a positive association with depth-first style. We also found that in addition to having more programming experience and better academic achievement, the styles of working depth-first and saving coarse-grained revisions improve performance in programming.Comment: 27 pages, 6 figure

Efficient Algorithm on a Non-staggered Mesh for Simulating Rayleigh-Benard Convection in a Box

An efficient semi-implicit second-order-accurate finite-difference method is described for studying incompressible Rayleigh-Benard convection in a box, with sidewalls that are periodic, thermally insulated, or thermally conducting. Operator-splitting and a projection method reduce the algorithm at each time step to the solution of four Helmholtz equations and one Poisson equation, and these are are solved by fast direct methods. The method is numerically stable even though all field values are placed on a single non-staggered mesh commensurate with the boundaries. The efficiency and accuracy of the method are characterized for several representative convection problems.Comment: REVTeX, 30 pages, 5 figure

"Mental Rotation" by Optimizing Transforming Distance

The human visual system is able to recognize objects despite transformations that can drastically alter their appearance. To this end, much effort has been devoted to the invariance properties of recognition systems. Invariance can be engineered (e.g. convolutional nets), or learned from data explicitly (e.g. temporal coherence) or implicitly (e.g. by data augmentation). One idea that has not, to date, been explored is the integration of latent variables which permit a search over a learned space of transformations. Motivated by evidence that people mentally simulate transformations in space while comparing examples, so-called "mental rotation", we propose a transforming distance. Here, a trained relational model actively transforms pairs of examples so that they are maximally similar in some feature space yet respect the learned transformational constraints. We apply our method to nearest-neighbour problems on the Toronto Face Database and NORB

Ensemble of Hankel Matrices for Face Emotion Recognition

In this paper, a face emotion is considered as the result of the composition of multiple concurrent signals, each corresponding to the movements of a specific facial muscle. These concurrent signals are represented by means of a set of multi-scale appearance features that might be correlated with one or more concurrent signals. The extraction of these appearance features from a sequence of face images yields to a set of time series. This paper proposes to use the dynamics regulating each appearance feature time series to recognize among different face emotions. To this purpose, an ensemble of Hankel matrices corresponding to the extracted time series is used for emotion classification within a framework that combines nearest neighbor and a majority vote schema. Experimental results on a public available dataset shows that the adopted representation is promising and yields state-of-the-art accuracy in emotion classification.Comment: Paper to appear in Proc. of ICIAP 2015. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1506.0500