Thompson Sampling for Bandits with Clustered Arms

We propose algorithms based on a multi-level Thompson sampling scheme, for the stochastic multi-armed bandit and its contextual variant with linear expected rewards, in the setting where arms are clustered. We show, both theoretically and empirically, how exploiting a given cluster structure can significantly improve the regret and computational cost compared to using standard Thompson sampling. In the case of the stochastic multi-armed bandit we give upper bounds on the expected cumulative regret showing how it depends on the quality of the clustering. Finally, we perform an empirical evaluation showing that our algorithms perform well compared to previously proposed algorithms for bandits with clustered arms

Tsallis-INF: An Optimal Algorithm for Stochastic and Adversarial Bandits

We derive an algorithm that achieves the optimal (within constants) pseudo-regret in both adversarial and stochastic multi-armed bandits without prior knowledge of the regime and time horizon. The algorithm is based on online mirror descent (OMD) with Tsallis entropy regularization with power $\alpha=1/2$ and reduced-variance loss estimators. More generally, we define an adversarial regime with a self-bounding constraint, which includes stochastic regime, stochastically constrained adversarial regime (Wei and Luo), and stochastic regime with adversarial corruptions (Lykouris et al.) as special cases, and show that the algorithm achieves logarithmic regret guarantee in this regime and all of its special cases simultaneously with the adversarial regret guarantee.} The algorithm also achieves adversarial and stochastic optimality in the utility-based dueling bandit setting. We provide empirical evaluation of the algorithm demonstrating that it significantly outperforms UCB1 and EXP3 in stochastic environments. We also provide examples of adversarial environments, where UCB1 and Thompson Sampling exhibit almost linear regret, whereas our algorithm suffers only logarithmic regret. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first example demonstrating vulnerability of Thompson Sampling in adversarial environments. Last, but not least, we present a general stochastic analysis and a general adversarial analysis of OMD algorithms with Tsallis entropy regularization for $\alpha\in[0,1]$ and explain the reason why $\alpha=1/2$ works best

Monte-Carlo tree search with uncertainty propagation via optimal transport

This paper introduces a novel backup strategy for Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) designed for highly stochastic and partially observable Markov decision processes. We adopt a probabilistic approach, modeling both value and action-value nodes as Gaussian distributions. We introduce a novel backup operator that computes value nodes as the Wasserstein barycenter of their action-value children nodes; thus, propagating the uncertainty of the estimate across the tree to the root node. We study our novel backup operator when using a novel combination of $L^1$-Wasserstein barycenter with $\alpha$-divergence, by drawing a notable connection to the generalized mean backup operator. We complement our probabilistic backup operator with two sampling strategies, based on optimistic selection and Thompson sampling, obtaining our Wasserstein MCTS algorithm. We provide theoretical guarantees of asymptotic convergence to the optimal policy, and an empirical evaluation on several stochastic and partially observable environments, where our approach outperforms well-known related baselines

Context Attentive Bandits: Contextual Bandit with Restricted Context

We consider a novel formulation of the multi-armed bandit model, which we call the contextual bandit with restricted context, where only a limited number of features can be accessed by the learner at every iteration. This novel formulation is motivated by different online problems arising in clinical trials, recommender systems and attention modeling. Herein, we adapt the standard multi-armed bandit algorithm known as Thompson Sampling to take advantage of our restricted context setting, and propose two novel algorithms, called the Thompson Sampling with Restricted Context(TSRC) and the Windows Thompson Sampling with Restricted Context(WTSRC), for handling stationary and nonstationary environments, respectively. Our empirical results demonstrate advantages of the proposed approaches on several real-life datasetsComment: IJCAI 201

Bandit Models of Human Behavior: Reward Processing in Mental Disorders

Drawing an inspiration from behavioral studies of human decision making, we propose here a general parametric framework for multi-armed bandit problem, which extends the standard Thompson Sampling approach to incorporate reward processing biases associated with several neurological and psychiatric conditions, including Parkinson's and Alzheimer's diseases, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), addiction, and chronic pain. We demonstrate empirically that the proposed parametric approach can often outperform the baseline Thompson Sampling on a variety of datasets. Moreover, from the behavioral modeling perspective, our parametric framework can be viewed as a first step towards a unifying computational model capturing reward processing abnormalities across multiple mental conditions.Comment: Conference on Artificial General Intelligence, AGI-1

Shrinkage Estimators in Online Experiments

We develop and analyze empirical Bayes Stein-type estimators for use in the estimation of causal effects in large-scale online experiments. While online experiments are generally thought to be distinguished by their large sample size, we focus on the multiplicity of treatment groups. The typical analysis practice is to use simple differences-in-means (perhaps with covariate adjustment) as if all treatment arms were independent. In this work we develop consistent, small bias, shrinkage estimators for this setting. In addition to achieving lower mean squared error these estimators retain important frequentist properties such as coverage under most reasonable scenarios. Modern sequential methods of experimentation and optimization such as multi-armed bandit optimization (where treatment allocations adapt over time to prior responses) benefit from the use of our shrinkage estimators. Exploration under empirical Bayes focuses more efficiently on near-optimal arms, improving the resulting decisions made under uncertainty. We demonstrate these properties by examining seventeen large-scale experiments conducted on Facebook from April to June 2017