Probabilistic error estimation for non-intrusive reduced models learned from data of systems governed by linear parabolic partial differential equations

This work derives a residual-based a posteriori error estimator for reduced models learned with non-intrusive model reduction from data of high-dimensional systems governed by linear parabolic partial differential equations with control inputs. It is shown that quantities that are necessary for the error estimator can be either obtained exactly as the solutions of least-squares problems in a non-intrusive way from data such as initial conditions, control inputs, and high-dimensional solution trajectories or bounded in a probabilistic sense. The computational procedure follows an offline/online decomposition. In the offline (training) phase, the high-dimensional system is judiciously solved in a black-box fashion to generate data and to set up the error estimator. In the online phase, the estimator is used to bound the error of the reduced-model predictions for new initial conditions and new control inputs without recourse to the high-dimensional system. Numerical results demonstrate the workflow of the proposed approach from data to reduced models to certified predictions

A weighted reduced basis method for parabolic PDEs with random data

This work considers a weighted POD-greedy method to estimate statistical outputs parabolic PDE problems with parametrized random data. The key idea of weighted reduced basis methods is to weight the parameter-dependent error estimate according to a probability measure in the set-up of the reduced space. The error of stochastic finite element solutions is usually measured in a root mean square sense regarding their dependence on the stochastic input parameters. An orthogonal projection of a snapshot set onto a corresponding POD basis defines an optimum reduced approximation in terms of a Monte Carlo discretization of the root mean square error. The errors of a weighted POD-greedy Galerkin solution are compared against an orthogonal projection of the underlying snapshots onto a POD basis for a numerical example involving thermal conduction. In particular, it is assessed whether a weighted POD-greedy solutions is able to come significantly closer to the optimum than a non-weighted equivalent. Additionally, the performance of a weighted POD-greedy Galerkin solution is considered with respect to the mean absolute error of an adjoint-corrected functional of the reduced solution.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figure

The ROMES method for statistical modeling of reduced-order-model error

This work presents a technique for statistically modeling errors introduced by reduced-order models. The method employs Gaussian-process regression to construct a mapping from a small number of computationally inexpensive `error indicators' to a distribution over the true error. The variance of this distribution can be interpreted as the (epistemic) uncertainty introduced by the reduced-order model. To model normed errors, the method employs existing rigorous error bounds and residual norms as indicators; numerical experiments show that the method leads to a near-optimal expected effectivity in contrast to typical error bounds. To model errors in general outputs, the method uses dual-weighted residuals---which are amenable to uncertainty control---as indicators. Experiments illustrate that correcting the reduced-order-model output with this surrogate can improve prediction accuracy by an order of magnitude; this contrasts with existing `multifidelity correction' approaches, which often fail for reduced-order models and suffer from the curse of dimensionality. The proposed error surrogates also lead to a notion of `probabilistic rigor', i.e., the surrogate bounds the error with specified probability

POD model order reduction with space-adapted snapshots for incompressible flows

We consider model order reduction based on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) for unsteady incompressible Navier-Stokes problems, assuming that the snapshots are given by spatially adapted finite element solutions. We propose two approaches of deriving stable POD-Galerkin reduced-order models for this context. In the first approach, the pressure term and the continuity equation are eliminated by imposing a weak incompressibility constraint with respect to a pressure reference space. In the second approach, we derive an inf-sup stable velocity-pressure reduced-order model by enriching the velocity reduced space with supremizers computed on a velocity reference space. For problems with inhomogeneous Dirichlet conditions, we show how suitable lifting functions can be obtained from standard adaptive finite element computations. We provide a numerical comparison of the considered methods for a regularized lid-driven cavity problem