On the smoothness of nonlinear system identification

We shed new light on the \textit{smoothness} of optimization problems arising in prediction error parameter estimation of linear and nonlinear systems. We show that for regions of the parameter space where the model is not contractive, the Lipschitz constant and $\beta$-smoothness of the objective function might blow up exponentially with the simulation length, making it hard to numerically find minima within those regions or, even, to escape from them. In addition to providing theoretical understanding of this problem, this paper also proposes the use of multiple shooting as a viable solution. The proposed method minimizes the error between a prediction model and the observed values. Rather than running the prediction model over the entire dataset, multiple shooting splits the data into smaller subsets and runs the prediction model over each subset, making the simulation length a design parameter and making it possible to solve problems that would be infeasible using a standard approach. The equivalence to the original problem is obtained by including constraints in the optimization. The new method is illustrated by estimating the parameters of nonlinear systems with chaotic or unstable behavior, as well as neural networks. We also present a comparative analysis of the proposed method with multi-step-ahead prediction error minimization

Tensor Computation: A New Framework for High-Dimensional Problems in EDA

Many critical EDA problems suffer from the curse of dimensionality, i.e. the very fast-scaling computational burden produced by large number of parameters and/or unknown variables. This phenomenon may be caused by multiple spatial or temporal factors (e.g. 3-D field solvers discretizations and multi-rate circuit simulation), nonlinearity of devices and circuits, large number of design or optimization parameters (e.g. full-chip routing/placement and circuit sizing), or extensive process variations (e.g. variability/reliability analysis and design for manufacturability). The computational challenges generated by such high dimensional problems are generally hard to handle efficiently with traditional EDA core algorithms that are based on matrix and vector computation. This paper presents "tensor computation" as an alternative general framework for the development of efficient EDA algorithms and tools. A tensor is a high-dimensional generalization of a matrix and a vector, and is a natural choice for both storing and solving efficiently high-dimensional EDA problems. This paper gives a basic tutorial on tensors, demonstrates some recent examples of EDA applications (e.g., nonlinear circuit modeling and high-dimensional uncertainty quantification), and suggests further open EDA problems where the use of tensor computation could be of advantage.Comment: 14 figures. Accepted by IEEE Trans. CAD of Integrated Circuits and System

Fast derivatives of likelihood functionals for ODE based models using adjoint-state method

We consider time series data modeled by ordinary differential equations (ODEs), widespread models in physics, chemistry, biology and science in general. The sensitivity analysis of such dynamical systems usually requires calculation of various derivatives with respect to the model parameters. We employ the adjoint state method (ASM) for efficient computation of the first and the second derivatives of likelihood functionals constrained by ODEs with respect to the parameters of the underlying ODE model. Essentially, the gradient can be computed with a cost (measured by model evaluations) that is independent of the number of the ODE model parameters and the Hessian with a linear cost in the number of the parameters instead of the quadratic one. The sensitivity analysis becomes feasible even if the parametric space is high-dimensional. The main contributions are derivation and rigorous analysis of the ASM in the statistical context, when the discrete data are coupled with the continuous ODE model. Further, we present a highly optimized implementation of the results and its benchmarks on a number of problems. The results are directly applicable in (e.g.) maximum-likelihood estimation or Bayesian sampling of ODE based statistical models, allowing for faster, more stable estimation of parameters of the underlying ODE model.Comment: 5 figure