The Bayesian boom: good thing or bad?

A series of high-profile critiques of Bayesian models of cognition have recently sparked controversy. These critiques question the contribution of rational, normative considerations in the study of cognition. The present article takes central claims from these critiques and evaluates them in light of specific models. Closer consideration of actual examples of Bayesian treatments of different cognitive phenomena allows one to defuse these critiques showing that they cannot be sustained across the diversity of applications of the Bayesian framework for cognitive modeling. More generally, there is nothing in the Bayesian framework that would inherently give rise to the deficits that these critiques perceive, suggesting they have been framed at the wrong level of generality. At the same time, the examples are used to demonstrate the different ways in which consideration of rationality uniquely benefits both theory and practice in the study of cognition

Sell-side analysts’ valuation method choices and the role of ESG information in renewable energy valuations - case Neste Oyj

The objective of this research was to gain understanding of the drivers behind sell-side analysts’ valuation method choices for valuing a particular company, which have largely remained unknown. The phenomenon was explored through a renewable energy case company Neste Oyj. Additionally, due to the context of renewable energy valuations, the study sought to investigate how environmental, social and governance information influence valuations. The main research question of the study was: What affects analysts’ valuation method choices directly linked to a firm's target price? The secondary research question, to address the context of renewable energy valuations, was: What is the role of environmental, social and governance information in the context of renewable energy valuation? This research followed a qualitative research approach. Empirical data was gathered from 6 in-depth semi-structured interviews of sell-side analysts covering the case company Neste Oyj. The interviews were based on the content analysis of the interviewed analysts’ latest valuation reports on Neste Oyj. Further, the interviews were constructed acknowledging prior research. The interviewees were based in the UK and the Nordics. Interviews were conducted either face-to-face or by phone. Thus, complimentary research material obtained from interviewees’ was considered. Further, the research approach was abductive. The findings of the research supported the acknowledgement that the decision-environment that analysts face is multidimensional, having various drivers affecting choices made. First, the findings corroborated prior empirical evidence on factors influencing valuation method choices, such as client preferences. Secondly, the research found indications of theoretically suggested factors and thirdly, identified new factors. The factors influencing valuation method choices were categorized under four groups of valuation method drivers, constructing a framework for assessing the phenomenon: 1) employer related, 2) market deriving, 3) method characteristics and personal preferences and 4) firm specific drivers. Additionally, the research noted analysts’ changing valuation method preferences: the shift from the dominance of PE to preference of enterprise value multiples. Secondarily, the research found ESG information to play a secondary role in the context of renewable energy valuations and noted UK and Nordic analysts differing perceptions on the valuation relevance of ESG-information. ESG did not influence valuation method choices or target prices explicitly. However, for Nordic analysts, ESG-information could influence the stock recommendation and be present in screenings or reports

Manufacturing Humanitarian Imagery: Explaining Norwegian Refugee Council’s Public Communication Strategies Toward the Syrian and Central African Crises

As refugee organizations’ communication can influence public perceptions, this study analyzes the underlying motivations and practices. To explain Norwegian Refugee Council’s (NRC) public communication strategies toward the recent Syrian and Central African crises, we conducted a 3-week office ethnography at its main communication department, interviewed 10 communication officers, and analyzed key communication policy documents. First, NRC’s discursive strategies are molded by medium-based and/or context-sensitive routines, organizational goals and trends, and challenging institutional and societal contexts. Second, NRC’s crisis foci are institutionally shaped through the “Vicious Neglected Crisis Circle effect,” which is reinforced and/or limited by organizational and individual (counter) incentives, sensitive contexts, and context-sensitive routines. Third, NRC’s choice of represented forcibly displaced people is influenced by various selection criteria and sociodemographic-specific reasons. Thus, complex organizational, institutional, and societal contexts largely shape public communication strategies, suggesting that reflexivity and structural institutional changes are essential to achieve more balanced, representative humanitarian imageries

Spaces for public participation: Valuing the cross-border landscape in North West Ireland

Landscape is no respecter of territorial or administrative borders and is a highly pertinent policy-praxis arena within which cross-border cooperation can progress. Although a supportive soft policy space for cooperation on landscape exists on the island of Ireland through the European Landscape Convention (ELC) and the key bilateral spatial planning framework, two interrelated imperatives have not featured substantively on cross-border agendas: engendering active public involvement in landscape management, and harnessing digital technology as a means of enabling such participation. Thus, this paper elaborates upon the findings of #MyValuedPlaces, an online map-based pilot survey aimed at capturing the perceptual values attributed by the public to the places special to them in the cross-border cultural landscape of North West Ireland. Public Participation GIS (PPGIS) offers one accessible method of engaging with the multiple, subjective understandings of landscape, including in the Irish Border region. To this end, the methodology and potential uses of the place-based data generated by the #MyValuedPlaces survey are discussed, including challenges encountered with survey completion. The article concludes with critical reflections on how such ‘soft’ approaches to public participation in the cross-border landscape on the island of Ireland can be mobilised better in future, particularly through embedding them within official public consultation processes

Allocating healthcare resources on the basis of personal responsibility for ill-health: what role (if any) should public opinion play? A socio-ethical analysis

The suggestion that individual responsibility for ill-health, and consequent healthcare need, should be a factor in healthcare priority-setting is increasingly debated. The adoption of such a principle within UK healthcare distribution policy would be both socially and ethically contentious. This study examines the concept of a 'responsibility principle' within healthcare priority-setting and explores the contribution of the views, values and preferences of the public to the ongoing discussions. The ethical justification for seeking public participation in this type of debate is explored. Within this thesis, a range of issues are critically evaluated, including healthcare distribution via the 'QALY' approach, the incorporation of distributional weighting of health benefits and the influence of social values on healthcare provision. It is concluded that an enhanced public contribution could be attained by systematically investigating how members of the public reason and construct ethical arguments regarding 'responsibility' as a priority-setting principle and that such an investigation would demand a clear, empirically-based and ethically-sound methodological approach. The means by which this may be accomplished is investigated, and a conceptual and practical basis for eliciting and examining the ethical reasoning and arguments of members of the public is presented in a detailed proposal that represents an innovative approach to research in this area. A range of socio-ethical issues inform this study, including social value judgements, placing limits on what may be perceived to be socially justified entitlements, and questions of the citizen's role in contributing to ethically important social policy. The study employs a conceptual approach to these issues and identifies, evaluates and applies ethical arguments to the relevant topics. This study contributes to both methodological and empirical knowledge regarding public participation in healthcare debates and assists the interpretation of existing evidence of the public's views in this area

08421 Abstracts Collection -- Uncertainty Management in Information Systems

From October 12 to 17, 2008 the Dagstuhl Seminar 08421 \u27`Uncertainty Management in Information Systems \u27\u27 was held in Schloss Dagstuhl~--~Leibniz Center for Informatics. The abstracts of the plenary and session talks given during the seminar as well as those of the shown demos are put together in this paper