Early Warning Analysis for Social Diffusion Events

There is considerable interest in developing predictive capabilities for social diffusion processes, for instance to permit early identification of emerging contentious situations, rapid detection of disease outbreaks, or accurate forecasting of the ultimate reach of potentially viral ideas or behaviors. This paper proposes a new approach to this predictive analytics problem, in which analysis of meso-scale network dynamics is leveraged to generate useful predictions for complex social phenomena. We begin by deriving a stochastic hybrid dynamical systems (S-HDS) model for diffusion processes taking place over social networks with realistic topologies; this modeling approach is inspired by recent work in biology demonstrating that S-HDS offer a useful mathematical formalism with which to represent complex, multi-scale biological network dynamics. We then perform formal stochastic reachability analysis with this S-HDS model and conclude that the outcomes of social diffusion processes may depend crucially upon the way the early dynamics of the process interacts with the underlying network's community structure and core-periphery structure. This theoretical finding provides the foundations for developing a machine learning algorithm that enables accurate early warning analysis for social diffusion events. The utility of the warning algorithm, and the power of network-based predictive metrics, are demonstrated through an empirical investigation of the propagation of political memes over social media networks. Additionally, we illustrate the potential of the approach for security informatics applications through case studies involving early warning analysis of large-scale protests events and politically-motivated cyber attacks

Detection of hidden structures on all scales in amorphous materials and complex physical systems: basic notions and applications to networks, lattice systems, and glasses

Recent decades have seen the discovery of numerous complex materials. At the root of the complexity underlying many of these materials lies a large number of possible contending atomic- and larger-scale configurations and the intricate correlations between their constituents. For a detailed understanding, there is a need for tools that enable the detection of pertinent structures on all spatial and temporal scales. Towards this end, we suggest a new method by invoking ideas from network analysis and information theory. Our method efficiently identifies basic unit cells and topological defects in systems with low disorder and may analyze general amorphous structures to identify candidate natural structures where a clear definition of order is lacking. This general unbiased detection of physical structure does not require a guess as to which of the system properties should be deemed as important and may constitute a natural point of departure for further analysis. The method applies to both static and dynamic systems.Comment: (23 pages, 9 figures

Collective synchronization induced by epidemic dynamics on complex networks with communities

Much recent empirical evidence shows that \textit{community structure} is ubiquitous in the real-world networks. In this Letter, we propose a growth model to create scale-free networks with the tunable strength (noted by $Q$) of community structure and investigate the influence of community strength upon the collective synchronization induced by SIRS epidemiological process. Global and local synchronizability of the system is studied by means of an order parameter and the relevant finite-size scaling analysis is provided. The numerical results show that, a phase transition occurs at $Q_c\simeq0.835$ from global synchronization to desynchronization and the local synchronization is weakened in a range of intermediately large $Q$. Moreover, we study the impact of mean degree $$ upon synchronization on scale-free networks.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures. to appeared in Phys. Rev. E 75 (2007

Different approaches to community detection

A precise definition of what constitutes a community in networks has remained elusive. Consequently, network scientists have compared community detection algorithms on benchmark networks with a particular form of community structure and classified them based on the mathematical techniques they employ. However, this comparison can be misleading because apparent similarities in their mathematical machinery can disguise different reasons for why we would want to employ community detection in the first place. Here we provide a focused review of these different motivations that underpin community detection. This problem-driven classification is useful in applied network science, where it is important to select an appropriate algorithm for the given purpose. Moreover, highlighting the different approaches to community detection also delineates the many lines of research and points out open directions and avenues for future research.Comment: 14 pages, 2 figures. Written as a chapter for forthcoming Advances in network clustering and blockmodeling, and based on an extended version of The many facets of community detection in complex networks, Appl. Netw. Sci. 2: 4 (2017) by the same author

Inference of hidden structures in complex physical systems by multi-scale clustering

We survey the application of a relatively new branch of statistical physics--"community detection"-- to data mining. In particular, we focus on the diagnosis of materials and automated image segmentation. Community detection describes the quest of partitioning a complex system involving many elements into optimally decoupled subsets or communities of such elements. We review a multiresolution variant which is used to ascertain structures at different spatial and temporal scales. Significant patterns are obtained by examining the correlations between different independent solvers. Similar to other combinatorial optimization problems in the NP complexity class, community detection exhibits several phases. Typically, illuminating orders are revealed by choosing parameters that lead to extremal information theory correlations.Comment: 25 pages, 16 Figures; a review of earlier work