THE BASEL COMMITTEE´S PROPOSALS FOR REVISED CAPITAL STANDARDS: MARK 2 AND THE STATE OF PLAY

The Basel Committee´s Proposals for Revised Capital Standards: Mark 2 and the State of Play. The new 500-page consultative document on capital standards of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS), “The New Basel Capital Accord”, gives what is likely to prove a reasonable idea of the eventual shape of the new capital accord. However, many detailed issues remain to be resolved before completion of the drafting process in 2002. The scale and duration of this process reflects both the increasing complexity of banking operations and the role of the BCBS as the institution responsible for globally applicable standards for banking regulation and supervision. The basic structure of the 2001 consultative document follows that of the June 1999 proposals, in particular three Pillars treating the calculation of capital requirements, supervisory review, and the disclosure necessary for effective market discipline. But the 2001 proposals are much more concrete and detailed. In their present form the proposals of the New Accord raise several concerns likely to apply to all countries but in some respects particularly to developing ones. One set of concerns relates to the New Accord’s impact on supervisory divergences among countries, cross-border competition between banks, and cooperation between national supervisors. The New Accord has been crafted to accommodate banks of very different levels of sophistication. Yet this may compromise its basic objective of enhancing competitive equality by actually creating regulatory divergences in some areas of banking practice both within and between different countries. As a result the difficulties of achieving effective cross-border cooperation amongst supervisors may well increase. A second set of concerns involves the relation of the New Accord to ongoing exercises involving codes and standards. Here the key standard is the BCBS’s Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision for which the capital adequacy requirements of the Basle Capital Accord provide the principal benchmark. The New Accord will represent a quantum increase in the complexity of supervisors’ responsibilities in most countries, and the resulting administrative burden will be aggravated by its in corporation in assessment exercises regarding compliance with the key standards. Furthermore, the link between the New Accord and key standards for financial systems also implies that implementation will become a subject for IMF Article IV surveillance and part of the conditionality associated with the IMF’s new CCL facility. A further set of issues involves possible effects on regulatory arbitrage, since the comprehensiveness and detailed character of the rules of the New Accord will almost inevitably be a source of new opportunities for such arbitrage. Finally, there are concerns as to the effects of the New Accord on economic activity and international capital flows. The proposed risk weights of the IRB approach would lead to substantial rises in interest rates for lending to borrowers with low credit ratings both within countries and internationally – rises likely to affect borrowers from several developing countries. Moreover, owing to their links to the ratings of credit rating agencies and to observed default rates, the risk weights proposed in the New Accord are capable of contributing to the pro-cyclical character of bank lending both within countries and across borders, since they would be likely to translate higher credit risks in more difficult times into increased capital requirements (and thus more restrictive lending policies). Prudential rules which would minimize such dangers can be sketched but would nonetheless be difficult to incorporate in the design of regulatory systems.

Estimating LGD Correlation

The paper proposes a new method to estimate correlation of account level Basle II Loss Given Default (LGD). The correlation determines the probability distribution of portfolio level LGD in the context of a copula model which is used to stress the LGD parameter as well as to estimate the LGD discount rate and other parameters. Given historical LGD observations we apply the maximum likelihood method to estimate the best correlation parameter. The method is applied and analyzed on a real large data set of unsecured retail account level LGDs and the corresponding monthly series of the average LGDs. The correlation estimate comes relatively close to the PD regulatory correlation. It is also tested for stability using the bootstrapping method and used in an efficient formula to estimate ex ante one-year stressed LGD, i.e. one-year LGD quantiles on any reasonable probability level.credit risk, recovery rate, loss given default, correlation, regulatory capital

Basel II and Operational Risk: Implications for risk measurement and management in the financial sector

This paper proposes a methodology to analyze the implications of the Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA) for the assessment of operational risk put forward by the Basel II Accord. The methodology relies on an integrated procedure for the construction of the distribution of aggregate losses, using internal and external loss data. It is illustrated on a 2x2 matrix of two selected business lines and two event types, drawn from a database of 3000 losses obtained from a large European banking institution. For each cell, the method calibrates three truncated distributions functions for the body of internal data, the tail of internal data, and external data. When the dependence structure between aggregate losses and the non-linear adjustment of external data are explicitly taken into account, the regulatory capital computed with the AMA method proves to be substantially lower than with less sophisticated approaches allowed by the Basel II Accord, although the effect is not uniform for all business lines and event types. In a second phase, our models are used to estimate the effects of operational risk management actions on bank profitability, through a measure of RAROC adapted to operational risk. The results suggest that substantial savings can be achieved through active management techniques, although the estimated effect of a reduction of the number, frequency or severity of operational losses crucially depends on the calibration of the aggregate loss distributions.operational risk management, basel II, advanced measurement approach, copulae, external data, EVT, RAROC, cost-benefit analysis.

Credit risk measurement under Basel II : an overview and implementation issues for developing countries

The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the changes in the calculation of minimum regulatory capital requirements for credit risk that have been drafted by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (Basel II). Even though the revised credit capital rules represent a dramatic change compared to Basel I, it is shown that Basel II merely seeks to codify (albeit incompletely) existing good practices in bank risk measurement. However, its effective implementation in many developing countries is hindered by fundamental weaknesses in financial infrastructure that will need to be addressed as a priority.Banks&Banking Reform,Banking Law,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Financial Intermediation,Economic Theory&Research

Macroprudential Stress Testing of Credit Risk: A Practical Approach for Policy Makers

Drawing on the lessons from the global financial crisis and especially from its impact on the banking systems of Eastern Europe, the paper proposes a new practical approach to macroprudential stress testing. The proposed approach incorporates: (i) macroeconomic stress scenarios generated from both a country specific statistical model and historical cross-country crises experience; (ii) indirect credit risk due to foreign currency exposures of unhedged borrowers; (iii) varying underwriting practices across banks and their asset classes based on their relative aggressiveness of lending; (iv) higher correlations between the probability of default and the loss given default during stress periods; (v) a negative effect of lending concentration and residual loan maturity on unexpected losses; and (vi) the use of an economic risk weighted capital adequacy ratio as the relevant outcome indicator to measure the resilience of banks to materialising credit risk. We apply the proposed approach to a set of Eastern European banks and discuss the results.Supervision, Stress Test, Individual Bank Data, Eastern Europe

Consumer finance: challenges for operational research

Consumer finance has become one of the most important areas of banking, both because of the amount of money being lent and the impact of such credit on global economy and the realisation that the credit crunch of 2008 was partly due to incorrect modelling of the risks in such lending. This paper reviews the development of credit scoring—the way of assessing risk in consumer finance—and what is meant by a credit score. It then outlines 10 challenges for Operational Research to support modelling in consumer finance. Some of these involve developing more robust risk assessment systems, whereas others are to expand the use of such modelling to deal with the current objectives of lenders and the new decisions they have to make in consumer finance. <br/

Operations research in consumer finance: challenges for operational research

Consumer finance has become one of the most important areas of banking both because of the amount of money being lent and the impact of such credit on the global economy and the realisation that the credit crunch of 2008 was partly due to incorrect modelling of the risks in such lending. This paper reviews the development of credit scoring,-the way of assessing risk in consumer finance- and what is meant by a credit score. It then outlines ten challenges for Operational Research to support modelling in consumer finance. Some of these are to developing more robust risk assessment systems while others are to expand the use of such modelling to deal with the current objectives of lenders and the new decisions they have to make in consumer financ

Loan loss provisioning in the commercial banking system of Barbados: practices and determinants

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the process of loan loss provisioning within the commercial banking system of Barbados. It uses questionnaires and interviews to ascertain how banks set their provisional standards and levels. In addition, the results from this approach reveal, for the first time in Barbados, the individual banks‟ procedures for loan loss provisioning. An evaluation of the impact of macroeconomic and bank specific factors on commercial banks‟ provisions utilising panel dynamic ordinary least squares is also undertaken. Both sets of factors are found to influence the level of provisions. In particular, loan loss provisions are heavily dependent upon the performance of the real economy and competition in international markets is shown to have serious implications for the banking sector in both the short and long run. Moreover, this study asserts that larger banks in Barbados are better able to screen loans and avoid defaults.Loan Loss Provisioning; Banking System; Loan Classification

Pitfalls in modeling loss given default of bank loans

The parameter loss given default (LGD) of loans plays a crucial role for risk-based decision making of banks including risk-adjusted pricing. Depending on the quality of the estimation of LGDs, banks can gain significant competitive advantage. For bank loans, the estimation is usually based on discounted recovery cash flows, leading to workout LGDs. In this paper, we reveal several problems that may occur when modeling workout LGDs, leading to LGD estimates which are biased or have low explanatory power. Based on a data set of 71,463 defaulted bank loans, we analyze these issues and derive recommendations for action in order to avoid these problems. Due to the restricted observation period of recovery cash flows the problem of length-biased sampling occurs, where long workout processes are underrepresented in the sample, leading to an underestimation of LGDs. Write-offs and recoveries are often driven by different influencing factors, which is ignored by the empirical literature on LGD modeling. We propose a two-step approach for modeling LGDs of non-defaulted loans which accounts for these differences leading to an improved explanatory power. For LGDs of defaulted loans, the type of default and the length of the default period have high explanatory power, but estimates relying on these variables can lead to a significant underestimation of LGDs. We propose a model for defaulted loans which makes use of these influence factors and leads to consistent LGD estimates. --Credit risk,Bank loans,Loss given default,Forecasting

Macroprudential stress testing of credit risk : a practical approach for policy makers

Drawing on the lessons from the global financial crisis and especially from its impact on the banking systems of Eastern Europe, the paper proposes a new practical approach to macroprudential stress testing. The proposed approach incorporates: (i) macroeconomic stress scenarios generated from both a country specific statistical model and historical cross-country crises experience; (ii) indirect credit risk due to foreign currency exposures of unhedged borrowers; (iii) varying underwriting practices across banks and their asset classes based on their relative aggressiveness of lending; (iv) higher correlations between the probability of default and the loss given default during stress periods; (v) a negative effect of lending concentration and residual loan maturity on unexpected losses; and (vi) the use of an economic risk weighted capital adequacy ratio as the relevant outcome indicator to measure the resilience of banks to materializing credit risk. The authors apply the proposed approach to a set of Eastern European banks and discuss the results.Banks&Banking Reform,Debt Markets,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Economic Theory&Research,Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress