Measures of Gasoline Price Change

[Excerpt] No prices are more visible to the public than gasoline prices. Even for people who don’t have to fill up a tank on a regular basis, gasoline prices are likely to be in their view, posted every day. In addition, no prices have more of an impact on short-run movements in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Gasoline prices are so much more volatile than other CPI components that, even though gasoline makes up less than 6 percent of the CPI, it is often the main source of monthly price movements in the all items index. Moreover, because they are so visible and gasoline is purchased so frequently, gasoline prices have a major impact on the perception of prices. Constantly seeing prices at the pump creep ever higher will often create a perception of broader inflation—and, of course, higher gasoline prices are likely to eventually have an impact on other prices as transportation costs increase. So, it is particularly important that gasoline price changes be measured accurately and reliably. Fortunately, gasoline is one of the few consumer goods for which there are many sources of price data. In fact, the ease of price collection makes it feasible for other government agencies and even private sources to create reliable measures. On the government side, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes extensive gasoline price data. Among private sources are the American Automobile Association, the Oil Price Information Service, and the Lundberg Survey. Furthermore, gasoline is one of the few nonfood items for which the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes an average price series as well as an index; the fact that gasoline is a relatively homogenous product makes meaningful average price data possible. This article examines three measures of gasoline prices: the BLS Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) U.S. city average for all types of gasoline, the BLS CPI average price series for all types of gasoline, and the EIA Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices for all grades of gasoline. The purpose of the article is to identify how these measures have behaved over the 10-year period from December 2002 to December 2012

Analysis of United States and European Union Import Demand for Shrimp

Based on 1990-2004 quarterly data, U.S. and E.U. demand for imported shrimp by alternative supply sources was examined within an Almost Ideal Demand System framework. For the United States, supply sources included Central America, South America, and Asia. Supply sources for the European Union included Asia, South America, and Rest of World. All own-price elasticities for the U.S. system were found to be elastic while all own-price elasticities associated with the E.U. system were found to be inelastic. With few notable exceptions, estimated cross-price elasticities suggest substitution among import sources. Finally, shrimp of Asian origin were found to be highly expenditure elastic in the US market while shrimp of South American origin were found to be the same in the European market.Demand and Price Analysis,

Kicking the oil addiction

Few people were left unaffected by the soaring oil prices of summer 2008. Motorists were the hardest hit as the price at the pumps reached an all time high, but nobody could avoid paying more for their food as higher transport costs were passed on from the retailer to the consumer

AGGREGATION WITHOUT SEPARABILITY: TESTS OF U.S. AND MEXICAN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION DATA

The generalized composite commodity theorem (Lewbel 1996) is used to test for consistent aggregation of U.S. and Mexican agricultural production data in each of the categories for which earlier tests rejected homothetic separability. All U.S. agricultural outputs can be justifiably aggregated into as few as four categories. All Mexican agricultural outputs can be aggregated into as few as five categories. The aggregation of all outputs into a single output cannot be supported in either country by sufficient conditions provided by the generalized composite commodity theorem and/or a homothetically separable technology.aggregation, separability, generalized composite commodity theorem, Demand and Price Analysis,

Forecasting Italian Electricity Zonal Prices with Exogenous Variables

In the last few years we have observed deregulation in electricity markets and an increasing interest of price dynamics has been developed especially to consider all stylized facts shown by spot prices. Only few papers have considered the Italian Electricity Spot market since it has been deregulated recently. Therefore, this contribution is an investigation with emphasis on price dynamics accounting for technologies, market concentration and congestions. We aim to understand how technologies, concentration and congestions affect the zonal prices since these ones combine to bring about the single national price (prezzo unico d’acquisto, PUN). Hence, understanding its features is important for drawing policy indications referred to production planning and selection of generation sources, pricing and risk–hedging problems, monitoring of market power positions and finally to motivate investment strategies in new power plants and grid interconnections. Implementing Reg–ARFIMA–GARCH models, we assess the forecasting performance of selected models showing that they perform better when these factors are considered.Electricity prices, Production technologies, Market power (HHI, RSI), Congestions, Fractional Integration, Forecasting

Price Impacts of Deals and Predictability of the Exchange Rate Movements

This paper examines the price impact and the predictability of the exchange rate movement using the transaction data recorded in the electronic broking system of the spot foreign exchange market. The number of actual deals at the ask (or bid side) for a specified time interval may be regarded as "order flows" to buy (or sell) in Richard Lyons' work. First, the contemporaneous impact of order flows on the quote and deal prices are analyzed. Second, the price predictability is examined. Our forecasting equations of the exchange rate for the next X minutes (X=1, 5, 15, 30) show that coefficients are significantly different from zero in both 5-min and 1-min forecast horizons, but the significance disappears in the 30-minute interval. The t-statistics become larger as the prediction window becomes shorter. Price impacts of deals at one side of the market are significant but short-lived. Market participants, if they can observe and analyze all the transactions information in real time, may be able to extract information to predict the price movements in the following next few minutes.

Assessing Euro-Med Trade Preferences: The Case of Entry Price Reduction

The EU protects some of its fruits and vegetables through the entry price system. This system consists on a two-tiered tariff, with high-priced exports paying an ad valorem tariff, whereas low-priced exports pay also a supplementary specific tariff. The breaking point between high and low export prices is the entry price level decided by the EU, generally the same level for all third countries. In a few cases, some Southern Mediterranean partners of the EU have agreed a reduced entry price for their exports, together with the more common ad valorem tariff reduction. Among the indicators used for gauge the value of preferences, there is no one devoted to this case of reduced entry price, hence we develop a new indicator that allows to split which part of the preferential gains corresponds to the entry price reduction and which part corresponds to the "usual" ad valorem tariff reduction. We apply this methodology to Moroccan clementines trade flows, with two main findings: 1) The entry price reduction ranges up to 39% of the economic value of preferences in some months; 2) Morocco is not maximizing the gains due to this reduction, and could take some trade and policy lessons, mainly trying to better fit to the concession or, if impossible, use it as negotiating capital in future reviews of the agreement.International Relations/Trade,

Assessing Euro-Med trade preferences: the case of entry price reduction

The EU protects some of its fruits and vegetables through the entry price system. This system consists on a two-tiered tariff, with high-priced exports paying an ad valorem tariff, whereas low-priced exports pay also a supplementary specific tariff. The breaking point between high and low export prices is the entry price level decided by the EU, generally the same level for all third countries. In a few cases, some Southern Mediterranean partners of the EU have agreed a reduced entry price for their exports, together with the more common ad valorem tariff reduction. Among the indicators used for gauge the value of preferences, there is no one devoted to this case of reduced entry price, hence we develop a new indicator that allows to split which part of the preferential gains corresponds to the entry price reduction and which part corresponds to the “usual” ad valorem tariff reduction. We apply this methodology to Moroccan clementines trade flows, with two main findings: 1) The entry price reduction ranges up to 39% of the economic value of preferences in some months; 2) Morocco is not maximizing the gains due to this reduction, and could take some trade and policy lessons, mainly trying to better fit to the concession or, if impossible, use it as negotiating capital in future reviews of the agreement.Euro-Mediterranean Trade; trade preferences; fruits and vegetables; entry price regime

Correlation, price discovery and co-movement of ABS and equity

Asset-backed securitization (ABS) has become a viable and increasingly attractive risk management and refinancing method either as a standalone form of structured finance or as securitized debt in Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO). However, the absence of industry standardization has prevented rising investment demand from translating into market liquidity comparable to traditional fixed income instruments, in all but a few selected market segments. Particularly low financial transparency and complex security designs inhibits profound analysis of secondary market pricing and how it relates to established forms of external finance. This paper represents the first attempt to measure the intertemporal, bivariate causal relationship between matched price series of equity and ABS issued by the same entity. In a two-dimensional linear system of simultaneous equations we investigate the short-term dynamics and long-term consistency of daily secondary market data from the U.K. Sterling ABS/MBS market and exchange traded shares between 1998 and 2004 with and without the presence of cointegration. Our causality framework delivers compelling empirical support for a strong co-movement between matched price series of ABS-equity pairs, where ABS markets seem to contribute more to price discovery over the long run. Controlling for cointegration, risk-free interest and average market risk of corporate debt hardly alters our results. However, once we qualify the magnitude and direction of price discovery on various security characteristics, such as the ABS asset class, we find that ABS-equity pairs with large-scale CMBS/RMBS and credit card/student loan ABS reveal stronger lead-lag relationships and joint price dynamics than whole business ABS. JEL Classifications: G10, G12, G2