A consistency test of the time trade-off

This paper tests the internal consistency of time trade-off utilities. We find significant violations of consistency in the direction predicted by loss aversion. The violations disappear for higher gauge durations. We show that loss aversion can also explain that for short gauge durations time trade-off utilities exceed standard gamble utilities. Our results suggest that time trade-off measurements that use relatively short gauge durations, like the widely used EuroQol algorithm (Dolan 1997), are affected by loss aversion and lead to utilities that are too high.Cost-Utility Analysis, Time Trade-Off, Loss Aversion

Non-expected Utility, Saving, and Portfolios

Existing findings suggest that standard, frictionless, expected-utility models have difficulty accounting for average and for median holdings of wealth and of risky assets, partly as a result of the largely unexplained limited proportion of stockholders among households. We analyze life-cycle wealth accumulation and portfolio choice under career uncertainty and quantifiable departures from expected utility maximization. Our specification nests expected utility and three types of non-expected utility: (i) Kreps-Porteus preferences that disentangle risk aversion from elasticity of substitution, (ii) Yaari's Dual Theory of Choice, and (iii) Quiggin's Rank-dependent Utility. Specifications (ii) and (iii) exhibit "first-order" risk aversion and kinked indifference curves. Solution of such models under multiple sources of risk presents conceptual and computational difficulties. We introduce a notion of equilibrium and a computational algorithm appropriate for such setups. Computed wealth and stockholding, based on calibrated income processes for three education categories, are compared to the 1992 Survey of Consumer Finances. Rank-dependent utility enhances the importance of precautionary effects. Contrary to priors in the literature, solutions are not typically at kinks; neither kinks nor actual solutions involve zero stockholding when income risk is recognized; and yet predictions about average wealth and risky assets tend to improve for all education categories. Mere disentangling of risk aversion from elasticity has small effects, while dual theory predictions are farther from the data and the signs of precautionary effects are reversed.precautionary motives, non-expected utility, first-order risk aversion, portfolio choice, saving

Cumulative Prospect Theory Based Dynamic Pricing for Shared Mobility on Demand Services

Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) is a modeling tool widely used in behavioral economics and cognitive psychology that captures subjective decision making of individuals under risk or uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a dynamic pricing strategy for Shared Mobility on Demand Services (SMoDSs) using a passenger behavioral model based on CPT. This dynamic pricing strategy together with dynamic routing via a constrained optimization algorithm that we have developed earlier, provide a complete solution customized for SMoDS of multi-passenger transportation. The basic principles of CPT and the derivation of the passenger behavioral model in the SMoDS context are described in detail. The implications of CPT on dynamic pricing of the SMoDS are delineated using computational experiments involving passenger preferences. These implications include interpretation of the classic fourfold pattern of risk attitudes, strong risk aversion over mixed prospects, and behavioral preferences of self reference. Overall, it is argued that the use of the CPT framework corresponds to a crucial building block in designing socio-technical systems by allowing quantification of subjective decision making under risk or uncertainty that is perceived to be otherwise qualitative.Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures, and has been accepted for publication at the 58th Annual Conference on Decision and Control, 201