Economic Recovery: Sustaining U.S. Economic Growth in a Post-Crisis Economy

[Excerpt] There is concern that this time the U.S. economy will either not return to its pre-recession growth path but perhaps remain permanently below it, or return to the pre-crisis path but at a slower than normal pace. Problems on the supply side and the demand side of the economy has so far led to a weaker than normal recovery. If the pace of private spending proves insufficient to assure a sustained recovery, would further stimulus by monetary and fiscal policy be warranted? One of the important lessons from the Great Depression is to guard against a too hasty withdrawal of fiscal and monetary stimulus in an economy recovering from a deep decline. The removal of fiscal and monetary stimulus in 1937 is thought to have stopped a recovery and caused a slump that did not end until WWII. Opponents of further stimulus maintain that the accumulation of additional government debt would lower future economic growth, but supporters argue that additional stimulus is the appropriate near-term policy

The Second Great Contraction

The global scope and depth of the 2007-2009 crisis is unprecedented in the post World War II period. As such, the most relevant comparison benchmark is the Great Depression, or the Great Contraction as dubbed by Friedman and Schwartz (1963). We highlight some of the similarities between these two episodes and extend our analysis of the aftermath of severe financial crises to include the most severe post-WWII crises as well. As to the causes of these great crises, we focus on those factors that are common across time and geography; we discriminate between root causes of the crisis, its symptoms, and features such as financial regulation which serve as amplifiers of the boom-bust cycle.financial crisis, public debt, recession, unemployment, global

CORRELATIONS BETWEEN OIL AND STOCK MARKETS: A WAVELET-BASED APPROACH

In a global economy, shocks occurring in one market can spill over to other markets. This paper investigates the impact of oil shocks and stock markets crashes on correlations between stock and oil markets. We test changes in correlations at different scales with non-overlapping confidence intervals based on estimated wavelet correlations. Contrary to other approaches, this method does not need adjustment for heteroskedasticity biases on the correlation coefficients. Our results show that oil shocks affect the correlation between both markets. The evidence on the change of correlation between stock markets after an oil shock is weaker; except in some specific cases during the Kuwait war and the OPEC cutback period. Conversely, we only find weak evidence that stock market crashes change the correlation between oil and stock markets. Overall, the evidence gives support to including oil as an asset class in asset allocation strategies.he authors acknowledge financial support from Financial Research Center–UNIDE and from the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science, research projects MTM2010-17323, ECO2011-25706, ECO2012-32401 and MTM2012-36163-C06-03

The Impact of External Shocks in East Asia: Lessons from a Structural VAR Model with Block Exogeneity

In this paper, we examine the relative importance of external shocks in domestic fluctuations of East Asian countries and check if these shocks lead to asymmetric or symmetric reactions between the considered economies. To this end, we estimate, over the period 1990.1-2010.4, a structural VAR model with block exogeneity (SVARX model) relying on a comprehensive set of external shocks. We firstly document a rising impact of these external shocks on domestic variables since the mid 1990s. Finally, real oil price and U.S. GDP shocks have a significant impact on domestic activity and lead to more symmetric responses, compared to U.S. monetary shock and MSCI Index financial shocks.external shocks, East Asia, SVARX model.

Working Paper 117 - Supporting Africa's Post-Crisis Growth: The Role of Macroeconomic Policies

The objective of this paper is to discussmacroeconomic policies that would helpAfrican countries, especially the lowincome countries (LICs), reach strong,sustained and shared growth in the postcrisisworld. The paper first reviews, witha special focus on LICs, macroeconomicpolicies in Africa prior to the crisis. Itthen discusses factors behind ‘the Africasurprise’ that is the continent’s overallgood performance during the crisis andrelatively fast recovery. It underscoresthat in the aftermath of the crisis, theemphasis of the macroeconomic policyneeds to shift from the objective of verylow inflation that predominated prior tothe crisis towards growth. Fiscal policy iskey in this regard, through public outlayson infrastructure anchored in themedium term expenditure frameworksthat would also have a counter-cyclicalrole. Where conditions allow, frontiermarket LICs may want to consideradopting flexible inflation targetingframeworks that would provide sufficientroom for expansion of credit to theprivate sector.

SUPPORTING AFRICA’S POST-CRISIS GROWTH: THE ROLE OF MACROECONOMIC POLICIES

The objective of this paper is to discuss macroeconomic policies that would help African countries, especially the low income countries, reach strong, sustained and shared growth in the post-crisis world. The paper first reviews, with a special focus on LICs, macroeconomic policies in Africa prior to the crisis. It then discusses factors behind ‘the Africa surprise’ that is the continent’s overall good performance during the crisis and relatively fast recovery. It underscores that in the aftermath of the crisis, the emphasis of the macroeconomic policy needs to shift from the objective of very low inflation that predominated prior to the crisis towards growth. Fiscal policy is key in this regard, through public outlays on infrastructure anchored in the medium term expenditure frameworks that would also have a counter-cyclical role. Where conditions allow, frontier market LICs may want to consider adopting flexible inflation targeting frameworks that would provide sufficient room for expansion of credit to the private sector.macroeconomic policies, growth, capital flows, Africa

Growth risks for the EU emanating from global imbalances

The objective of this paper is to examine the possible implications of the adjustment of global and intraEuropean imbalances, particularly in terms of the macroeconomic impacts. We design a series of macroeconomic scenarios and look at the impact of global and European shocks (corresponding to various policies aimed at reducing imbalances) on the economies of the biggest world players - the US, China, the oil exporting countries, and the EU and its individual members. The methodological approach we adopt is based around a series of simulations using the National Institute’s global macroeconomic model NIGEM. Key findings suggest that while global imbalances may be adjusted either through policies in the US or in China, the adjustment on the Chinese side is somewhat less costly for Europe than the adjustment on the US side. Intra-European imbalances may be reduced through various policies, an appropriate policy mix is probably required

Perspectives For The Global Economy- The Aftermath Of The Financial Shocks: Report On The 2009 CESifo International Spring Conference

Weltkonjunktur; Finanzmarktkrise; Internationaler Finanzmarkt; Makroökonomischer Einfluss; Konjunkturprognose; Weltwirtschaft; Welt

"Financial Keynesianism and Market Instability"

In this paper I will follow Hyman Minsky in arguing that the postwar period has seen a slow transformation of the economy from a structure that could be characterized as "robust" to one that is "fragile." While many economists and policymakers have argued that "no one saw it coming," Minsky and his followers certainly did! While some of the details might have surprised Minsky, certainly the general contours of this crisis were foreseen by him a half century ago. I will focus on two main points: first, the past four decades have seen the return of "finance capitalism"; and second, the collapse that began two years ago is a classic "Fisher-Minsky" debt deflation. The appropriate way to analyze this transformation and collapse is from the perspective of what Minsky called "financial Keynesianism"—a label he preferred over Post Keynesian because it emphasized the financial nature of the capitalist economy he analyzed.Hyman Minsky, Fisher-Minsky Debt Deflation, Hilferding, Finance Capitalism, Money Manager Capitalism, Financial Keynesian

"Money Manager Capitalism and the Global Financial Crisis"

This paper applies Hyman Minsky's approach to provide an analysis of the causes of the global financial crisis. Rather than finding the origins in recent developments, this paper links the crisis to the long-term transformation of the economy from a robust financial structure in the 1950s to the fragile one that existed at the beginning of this crisis in 2007. As Minsky said, "Stability is destabilizing": the relative stability of the economy in the early postwar period encouraged this transformation of the economy. Today's crisis is rooted in what he called "money manager capitalism," the current stage of capitalism dominated by highly leveraged funds seeking maximum returns in an environment that systematically under-prices risk. With little regulation or supervision of financial institutions, money managers have concocted increasingly esoteric instruments that quickly spread around the world. Those playing along are rewarded with high returns because highly leveraged funding drives up prices for the underlying assets. Since each subsequent bust wipes out only a portion of the managed money, a new boom inevitably rises. Perhaps this will prove to be the end of this stage of capitalism--the money manager phase. Of course, it is too early even to speculate on the form capitalism will take. I will only briefly outline some policy implications.