Foreign versus domestic factors as sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Hong Kong

This paper uses a semi-structural vector autoregression approach to estimate the relative importance of domestic and foreign shocks as sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Hong Kong since the adoption of the currency board. We find that external factors are clearly dominant in the medium- to long run. In view of the highly open nature of the Hong Kong economy and the linkages implied by the currency board arrangement, it is perhaps not unexpected. However, that these factors should account for fifty percent or more of unexpected fluctuations in real gdp and the gdp deflator at shorter horizons of one to two years is more surprising, and it is large in comparisons with other highly open small economies. Even if external shocks are dominant sources of macroeconomic fluctuations, there remain significant short-term influences of domestic variables. For example, in the historical decomposition of the evolution of output growth and inflation we discovered a significant role for domestic factors in the recent recession. Their impact resembles very much those that would be generated by a conventional aggregate supply contraction. A challenge for future research is to identify empirically the exact sources of domestic shocks.new keynesian monetary policy, vector autoregression, macroeconomic fluctuations, economic cycles

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Coordination in ASEAN 1

This paper develops the basis for monetary and exchange rate coordination in Asia as part of a package of monetary integration that could support growth and poverty reduction. This could be achieved directly through coordinated exchange rate stabilization, and indirectly through the implications of this for reserve pooling and investment in an Asian development fund (ADF) and through development of the Asian bond market (ABM). Macro policy coordination could be viewed as a necessary condition for further development of both reserve pooling via the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) and of the ABM. The paper analyzes the trade structure of ASEAN and China in terms of both geographic sources of imports and markets for exports, and of the commodity structure of trade. The similarities of the geographic and commodity trade structures across the region are consistent with adoption of a common currency basket for stabilization, and with an argument for monetary integration across the region along the lines of Mundell (1961) on optimum currency areas. The paper constructs currency baskets and real effective exchange rates (REERs) for the countries in the region. Since their trade patterns are quite similar and their policies are already implicitly coordinated, their REERs tend to move together. This means that ASEAN and China are already moving toward integration in practical effect. Explicit movement toward coordination could support surveillance and reserve-sharing under the CMI, and release reserves to be invested in an ADF.

Global Financial Regulatory Reforms:Implications for Developing Asia

The objective of global regulatory reform is to build a resilient global financial system that can withstand shocks and dampen, rather than amplify, their effects on the real economy. Lessons drawn from the recent crisis have led to specific reform proposals with concrete implementation plans at the international level. Yet, these proposals have raised concerns of relevance to Asia’s developing economies and hence require further attention at the regional level. We argue that global financial reform should allow for the enormous development challenges faced by developing countries—while ensuring that domestic financial regulatory systems keep abreast of global standards. This implies global reforms should be complemented and augmented by national and regional reforms, taking into account the very different characteristics of emerging economies’ financial systems from advanced economies. Key areas of development focus should be (i) balancing regulation and innovation, (ii) establishing national and cross-border crisis management and resolution mechanisms, (iii) preparing a comprehensive framework and contingency plan for financial institution failure, including consumer protection measures such as deposit insurance, (iv) supporting growth and development with particular attention to the region’s financial needs for infrastructure and for SMEs, and (v) reforming the international and regional financial architecture.financial regulatory reform; global financial architecture; G-20; Asia; national and regional reform

Securities clearing and settlement in China: markets, infrastructures and policy-making

China is taking a more active role on the world stage, even more so since its rapid and strong recovery from the global recession. In the financial realm this expansion is underpinned by a strategy to build strong and competitive capital markets at home. In order to achieve this goal, well-functioning and sound securities infrastructures are an important pre-requisite, and therefore they receive a lot of attention from Chinese policy-makers, as well as from market participants both in China and abroad. This paper evaluates the current market infrastructure, including the legal and regulatory framework, for securities trading, clearing and settlement in mainland China, and analyses the policy-making in this field. The paper finds that, following huge progress in recent years, the post-trading processes are increasingly safe and efficient. It concludes that, given the effectiveness of the policy process, Chinese clearing and settlement are likely to develop into the “modern financial support systems” which the authorities envisage, and which will also be increasingly connected and integrated with other securities markets of global importance. JEL Classification: C21, C43, D12, E31China, Clearing and Settlement, market infrastructure, policymaking, securities market