Designing a Framework for Target-Site Assignment in Naval Combat Management

In this study, using operational research techniques, a model has been presented to assess battlefield threat, to prioritise aggressive targets, to evaluate the capability of own sites and the risks of the conflict with the targets, to define conflict scenarios and finally to select the best scenario using an assignment model. The above proceedings were added as an intermediate phase of target-site assignment, called ‘deciding the best conflict scenario’, to the ‘threat assessment’ and ‘weapon-target assignment’ in the naval combat management system. For each of the own site, the data collected from the environment together with the panels of experts are shown in a two-dimensional matrix, in which the four areas of the matrix represent the conflict scenarios. Considering that the study was done in a simulated environment, the expert’s verification and the convergence of the results in Monte Carlo method were used to validate the research. The proposed model can offer optimised decision to the operational commander through predicting the battlefield and managing the site’s capacity and the interaction in between during the combat

Velike baze podataka - Big Data, primena u vojno-bezbednosnom sistemu

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Capturing Risk in Capital Budgeting

NPS NRP Technical ReportThis proposed research has the goal of proposing novel, reusable, extensible, adaptable, and comprehensive advanced analytical process and Integrated Risk Management to help the (DOD) with risk-based capital budgeting, Monte Carlo risk-simulation, predictive analytics, and stochastic optimization of acquisitions and programs portfolios with multiple competing stakeholders while subject to budgetary, risk, schedule, and strategic constraints. The research covers topics of traditional capital budgeting methodologies used in industry, including the market, cost, and income approaches, and explains how some of these traditional methods can be applied in the DOD by using DOD-centric non-economic, logistic, readiness, capabilities, and requirements variables. Stochastic portfolio optimization with dynamic simulations and investment efficient frontiers will be run for the purposes of selecting the best combination of programs and capabilities is also addressed, as are other alternative methods such as average ranking, risk metrics, lexicographic methods, PROMETHEE, ELECTRE, and others. The results include actionable intelligence developed from an analytically robust case study that senior leadership at the DOD may utilize to make optimal decisions. The main deliverables will be a detailed written research report and presentation brief on the approach of capturing risk and uncertainty in capital budgeting analysis. The report will detail the proposed methodology and applications, as well as a summary case study and examples of how the methodology can be applied.N8 - Integration of Capabilities & ResourcesThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.