Use of synchronization and adaptive control in parameter estimation from a time series

A technique is introduced for estimating unknown parameters when time series of only one variable from a multivariate nonlinear dynamical system is given. The technique employs a combination of two different control methods, a linear feedback for synchronizing system variables and an adaptive control. The technique is shown to work even when the unknown parameter appears in the evolution equations of the variables other than the one for which the time series is given. The technique not only esablishes that explicit detailed information about all system variables and parameters is contained in a scalar time series, but also gives a way to exract it out under suitable conditions. Illustrations are presented and effect of noise is studied.Comment: Revised for simultaneous estimation of many parameters. 24 pages of RevTex, 12 figures in postscript files. To appear in PR(E

Data-Driven Forecasting of High-Dimensional Chaotic Systems with Long Short-Term Memory Networks

We introduce a data-driven forecasting method for high-dimensional chaotic systems using long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks. The proposed LSTM neural networks perform inference of high-dimensional dynamical systems in their reduced order space and are shown to be an effective set of nonlinear approximators of their attractor. We demonstrate the forecasting performance of the LSTM and compare it with Gaussian processes (GPs) in time series obtained from the Lorenz 96 system, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation and a prototype climate model. The LSTM networks outperform the GPs in short-term forecasting accuracy in all applications considered. A hybrid architecture, extending the LSTM with a mean stochastic model (MSM-LSTM), is proposed to ensure convergence to the invariant measure. This novel hybrid method is fully data-driven and extends the forecasting capabilities of LSTM networks.Comment: 31 page

Data-driven discovery of coordinates and governing equations

The discovery of governing equations from scientific data has the potential to transform data-rich fields that lack well-characterized quantitative descriptions. Advances in sparse regression are currently enabling the tractable identification of both the structure and parameters of a nonlinear dynamical system from data. The resulting models have the fewest terms necessary to describe the dynamics, balancing model complexity with descriptive ability, and thus promoting interpretability and generalizability. This provides an algorithmic approach to Occam's razor for model discovery. However, this approach fundamentally relies on an effective coordinate system in which the dynamics have a simple representation. In this work, we design a custom autoencoder to discover a coordinate transformation into a reduced space where the dynamics may be sparsely represented. Thus, we simultaneously learn the governing equations and the associated coordinate system. We demonstrate this approach on several example high-dimensional dynamical systems with low-dimensional behavior. The resulting modeling framework combines the strengths of deep neural networks for flexible representation and sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) for parsimonious models. It is the first method of its kind to place the discovery of coordinates and models on an equal footing.Comment: 25 pages, 6 figures; added acknowledgment