Trade and Employment Effects of the Andean Trade Preference Act - 2006

[Excerpt] The submission of this report to the Congress continues a series of reports by the U.S. Department of Labor on the impact of the Andean Trade Preference Act (ATPA) on U.S. employment. The current report covers calendar year 2006 and represents the fourteenth in the series. The ATPA, enacted on December 4, 1991, authorized the President to proclaim duty-free treatment for eligible articles from Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru. The ATPA expired on December 4, 2001, but was subsequently expanded in product coverage and renewed to December 31, 2006, by the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA) that was signed into law by the President on August 6, 2002. Prior to its expiry, on December 20, 2006, the program was extended for six months and, on June 28, 2007, it was extended for an additional eight months through February 2008. Section 207 of the ATPA directs the Secretary of Labor to undertake a continuing review and analysis of the impact of these preferences on U.S. employment and submit a summary report of such analysis annually to the Congress. During 2006, $13.5 billion in U.S. imports from the beneficiary countries entered the United States duty-free under the provisions of the APTA. This represents about 60 percent of all U.S. imports from the beneficiary countries in 2006, but just 0.7 percent of total U.S. imports from all sources. This$13.5 billion in imports includes $2.9 billion in imports that entered duty-free under the provision of the original ATPA (excluding the ATPDEA amendments) and$10.6 billion in imports that entered duty-free under the ATPDEA’s provisions for expanded product coverage. Of the $2.9 billion in imports that entered duty-free under the provision of the original ATPA (excluding the ATPDEA amendments), approximately one-third or$1 billion, could have qualified for duty-free entry under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) and were not exclusive benefits of the ATPA. All items that entered under the ATPDEA’s provisions for expanded product coverage were exclusive benefits of the ATPA. Overall, U.S. imports from the beneficiary countries that benefited exclusively from the original ATPA (on eligible products not eligible for GSP) and the ATPDEA amendments (all covered products) amounted to $12.5 billion in 2006, which represented about 56 percent of all U.S. imports from the beneficiary countries, but just 0.7 percent of total U.S. imports from all sources. The main finding of this report is that preferential tariff treatment under the provisions of the original ATPA and the ATPDEA amendments has neither had an adverse impact on, nor posed a significant threat to, U.S. employment

Export Dynamics in Colombia: Transactions Level Evidence

We examine Colombian export transaction data from customs records in several dimensions. We begin with some basic statistics on the number and frequency of export transactions by a firm, overall and across individual markets. We then decompose the variation in overall exports into the number of transactions and the size of the average transaction, both at the aggregate level and for individual firms to explore gravity equations, where the patterns of exports and numbers of transactions are related to the distance with respect to the destination. The analysis is carried out both at the aggregate and the firm level. Then we explore the relationship between patterns of transactions numbers and shipment modes. Our results show great heterogeneity in the patterns of frequency and number of transactions across firms; the average firm sent about 75 shipments abroad in 2005, while the firm with largest number of transactions that same year dispatched more than 26,000 shipments. Moreover, while close to 35% of firms in the sample report a single export transaction over the period, for most firms with multiple transactions the average span between two transactions is less than a month. Part of this heterogeneity is shown to be related to the distance with respect to the destination market: firms exporting to more distant destinations make less frequent shipments than firms exporting to markets that are closer. This suggests that there are fixed costs per shipment inducing declining marginal cost of higher shipment volume. These patterns imply that, at the aggregate level, transactions numbers are the primary source of variation in exports. The variability in the numbers of transactions also explains an important part of the well-known negative relationship between aggregate exports and distance to a specific destination.Export transaction frequency; fixed shipment costs and scale economies in transportation; destination distance, average shipment volume and number of shipments. Classification JEL: F10; F12; F14.

Perjucios y potencialidades de la inexistencia de un acuerdo comercial con Estados Unidos para productores y exportadores ecuatorianos de flores y brócoli, beneficiarios del ATPDEA

Esta investigación analiza el impacto de la no renovación de la ley de Promoción Comercial Andina y Erradicación de las Drogas (en inglés Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Erradication Act‐ ATPDEA) en las exportaciones de flores y brócoli, así como las alternativas o plan B que han desarrollado los exportadores ante un escenario definitivo sin las preferencias arancelarias. En primer lugar, se observa la importancia de Estados Unidos como socio comercial, así como la relevancia del ATPDEA, como estrategia de comercio para los países andinos; en este aspecto, el análisis se centra en tres momentos: la plena vigencia de las preferencias arancelarias; un período de constantes extensiones del beneficio arancelario; y una última etapa, la más extensa sin ATPDEA, desde su implementación para Ecuador. Como un segundo paso, se analiza la situación de cada sector (flores y brócoli) en función de la producción nacional, así como la evolución de las cifras y destinos de las exportaciones. Y finalmente, se expone los efectos y afectaciones para cada sector en ausencia del ATPDEA, además de las opciones de un plan B que visualizan los exportadores para permanecer en el mercado internacional

Regional Integration and Poverty: A case study of Bolivia

This paper investigates the impacts of regional integration processes on poverty in Bolivia. It first demonstrates that regional integration has stimulated a diversion of trade away from traditional US and EU markets towards countries of MERCOSUR and the Andean Community. At the same time, the composition of exports has changed from predominantly minerals towards slightly more elaborated goods, such as vegetable fats, food and beverages. The paper presents econometric analyses of the impact of imports, exports and FDI (by sector, and trade block) on individual labor incomes and household poverty status. The results show that higher exports generally tend to benefit the workers who work in the exporting sectors. However, this result only holds for export sectors that exploit some natural resource rents (mining, hydrocarbons, modern agriculture), and not for those which rely purely on low wages in order to be competitive (most manufacturing sectors). Imports typically have a negative effect on worker salaries, except the imports of capital goods, which do not compete with local production. This implies that the change towards more regional trade of goods with a smaller natural resource rent component is unlikely to contribute to a reduction in poverty. For exports and FDI to be helpful for reducing poverty, they would have to focus on sectors, which are labor intensive and at the same time exploit some natural resource rents. Sectors that might fulfill these criteria are modern agriculture and tourism.Regional integration, poverty, Bolivia

Ecuador's Presidential Election: Background on Economic Issues

This paper looks at the biggest economic challenges that Ecuador's new president will need to address, and examines its recent economic history, including the issues of growth, dollarization, and international trade and finance

The Proposed U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement

[Excerpt] The proposed U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement, also called the U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement (CFTA), was signed by the United States and Colombia on November 22, 2006. The agreement must be approved by Congress before it can enter into force. Upon congressional approval, it would immediately eliminate duties on 80% of U.S. exports of consumer and industrial products to Colombia. An additional 7% of U.S. exports would receive duty-free treatment within five years of implementation, and most remaining tariffs would be eliminated within 10 years of implementation. The agreement also contains other provisions in services, investment, intellectual property rights protection, labor, and the environment. About 90% of U.S. imports from Colombia enter the United States duty-free under trade preference programs or through normal trade relations, while U.S. exports to Colombia face duties of up to 20%. It is possible that the 112th may consider implementing legislation for the proposed CFTA. Negotiations for the agreement were conducted under the trade promotion authority (TPA), also called fast-track trade authority, that Congress granted the President under the Bipartisan Trade Promotion Act of 2002 (P.L. 107-210). The authority allowed the President to enter into trade agreements that would receive expedited congressional consideration (no amendments and limited debate). Implementing legislation for the CFTA (H.R. 5724/S. 2830) was introduced in the 110th Congress on April 8, 2008, under TPA. The House leadership, however, took the position that the President had submitted the implementing legislation without adequately fulfilling the TPA requirement for consultation with Congress. On April 10, 2008, the House voted 224-195 to make the provisions establishing expedited procedures, inapplicable to the CFTA implementing legislation (H.Res. 1092). In his January 2011 State of the Union address, President Barack Obama mentioned the importance of opening foreign markets for U.S. goods and services, and strengthening U.S. trade relations with Colombia. In 2010, the Administration initiated a new National Export Initiative (NEI), which includes a component that calls for opening new markets for U.S. exports by resolving outstanding issues on the pending CFTA. The Obama Administration also has made a case for pursuing free trade agreements as part of the National Security Strategy of the United States, though the CFTA is not specifically mentioned in the report. The congressional debate surrounding the agreement has mostly centered on the violence issues in Colombia. Some members of Congress oppose the agreement because of concerns about violence against union members and other terrorist activity in Colombia. However, numerous members of Congress support the CFTA and take issue with these charges, stating that Colombia has made progress in recent years to curb the violence in the country. They also contend that the agreement would open the Colombian market for U.S. exporters. Other policymakers argue that Colombia is a crucial ally of the United States in Latin America and that if the trade agreement is not passed, it may lead to further violence in the region. For Colombia, a free trade agreement with the United States is part of its overall economic development strategy. The United States is Colombia’s leading trade partner. Colombia accounts for a very small percentage of U.S. trade (0.8% in 2009), ranking 22nd among U.S. export markets and 27th as a source of U.S. imports. Economic studies on the impact of a U.S.-Colombia free trade agreement (FTA) have found that, upon full implementation of an agreement, the impact on the United States would be positive but very small due to the small size of the Colombian economy when compared to that of the United States (about 1.6%)

The Discovery of New Export Products in Ecuador

This paper examines export diversification in Ecuador in the cases of fresh cut flowers, canned tuna, palm heart, broccoli and mangoes, using the theoretical framework on “pioneers” and “discoveries” developed by Hausmann and Rodrik(2003), as well as work by Sánchez and Butler (2006) on export costs and related uncertainties. It is found that the discoveries were mainly of traditional competitive advantage, with various degrees of technology adoption. The following policy implications are derived: i) innovative mechanisms to share the costs of new discoveries must be found and intellectual property rights strengthened; ii) cooperation among industry experts needs to improve; iii) deeper collective action to promote public-private partnerships should be undertaken; iv) relevant information and knowledge should be made available to all interested parties; and v) a national-level agenda should be undertaken to increase private investment in promising sectors while promoting the creation of public goods and minimizing rent-seeking behavior.Export diversification, Ecuador

Effects of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis on the Bolivian Economy: A CGE Approach

This paper analyses the impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Bolivian economy. The PEP 1-1 Standard Model has been employed to analyze the effects of a reduction in (i) the world export prices of mining and agriculture, (ii) the world demand of textiles, and (iii) transfers to households (i.e., remittances) from abroad. The model has been calibrated to a new 2006 SAM for Bolivia. The households have been disaggregated according to their location (urban and rural) and ethnicity (indigenous and non-indigenous). The factors of production have been disaggregated into skilled and unskilled labor, capital, and natural resources. Not surprisingly, our results highlight the relevance of the decrease in the export price of natural gas in explaining the negative effects of the Global Financial Crisis.Computable General Equilibrium Model, Financial Crisis, Forecasting and Simulation

Domestic Support Policies for Agriculture in Ecuador and the U.S.-Andean Countries Free Trade Agreement: An Applied General Equilibrium Assessment

For the past two years the United States and Colombia, Peru and Ecuador have being negotiating a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). One of the main concerns of Ecuador's farmers is the asymmetry that exists between U.S. and Ecuador agricultural sectors. U.S. agriculture is highly subsidized in products such as rice, corn, and soybeans, products that represent an important export and subsistence products for Ecuadorian farmers. To reduce any negative effect that the FTA may have, Ecuador's government is studying land-based payments for rice, corn, soybeans and livestock producers. This program would offer direct initial support to farmers' income after the FTA enters in full effect. The objectives of this paper were twofold. First, estimate the effects on the Ecuadorian economy, and especially on Ecuador's agriculture of the FTA. And second, study the viability of the domestic support program for agriculture proposed by the Ecuadorian government, as well as some alternative domestic support policies. We use a modified version of the GTAP global general equilibrium model specific for agriculture support, called GTAP-AGR. The results show that trade liberalization will negatively affect all agricultural sectors in Ecuador, except for the exporting sectors (bananas, coffee, cocoa, and flowers). Government subsidies are estimated to disproportionally help rice and soybeans producers, but they will not be enough for corn and livestock producers. We conclude that government subsidies should be extended to other sector such as sugar cane and cotton.International Relations/Trade,