Abandon Statistical Significance

We discuss problems the null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) paradigm poses for replication and more broadly in the biomedical and social sciences as well as how these problems remain unresolved by proposals involving modified p-value thresholds, confidence intervals, and Bayes factors. We then discuss our own proposal, which is to abandon statistical significance. We recommend dropping the NHST paradigm--and the p-value thresholds intrinsic to it--as the default statistical paradigm for research, publication, and discovery in the biomedical and social sciences. Specifically, we propose that the p-value be demoted from its threshold screening role and instead, treated continuously, be considered along with currently subordinate factors (e.g., related prior evidence, plausibility of mechanism, study design and data quality, real world costs and benefits, novelty of finding, and other factors that vary by research domain) as just one among many pieces of evidence. We have no desire to "ban" p-values or other purely statistical measures. Rather, we believe that such measures should not be thresholded and that, thresholded or not, they should not take priority over the currently subordinate factors. We also argue that it seldom makes sense to calibrate evidence as a function of p-values or other purely statistical measures. We offer recommendations for how our proposal can be implemented in the scientific publication process as well as in statistical decision making more broadly

Abandon Ship

The clear notes of the bugle sounding chow call came over the loudspeakers throughout the ship. I stood waiting in the mess line, formed topside on the main deck aft. The last rays of the sun caught the signal flags flying - gave them a brilliant cast of red, green and yellow. The new cruiser rolled in the huge swells, leaving a foaming white trail behind her. The men stood silently gazing at the horizon. The ship gave a slight shudder each time one of the swells crashed into her. The sharp clanging of the ship\u27s general-alarm bell, followed by the shrill call of the bugle, broke the silence. All hands, man your battle stations! blared from the loud speaker

Implicit learning: What does it all mean - Response

In the original target article (Shanks & St. John 1994), one of our principal conclusions was that there is almost no evidence that learning can occur outside awareness. The continuing commentaries raise some interesting questions, especially about the definition of learning, but do not lead us to abandon our conclusion

Optimal Abandonment of Coal-Fired Stations in the EU

Carbon-fired power plants could face some difficulties in a carbon-constrained world. The traditional advantage of coal as a cheaper fuel may decrease in the future if CO2 allowance prices start to increase. This paper seeks to answer empirically the most drastic question that an operating coal-fired power plant may ask itself: under what conditions would it be optimal to abandon the plant and obtain its salvage value? We try to assess this question from a financial viewpoint following a real option approach at firm level so as to attract the interest of utilities and the broader investment community. We consider the specific case of a coal-fired power plant that operates under restrictions on carbon dioxide emissions in an electricity market where gas-fired plants are considered as marginal units. We also consider three sources of uncertainty or stochastic variables: the coal price, the gas price and the emission allowance price. These parameters are derived from future markets and are used in a three-dimensional binomial lattice to assess the value of the option to abandon. Our results (and sensitivity analysis) show the conditions that have to be met for the abandonment option to be exercised. This option to abandon coalfired plants is, however, hardly likely to be exercised if plants can operate as peaking plants. However, the decision may go differently in different circumstances, such as high CO2 allowance prices, very low volatility of allowance price or a decrease in the price of gas. The decision is also influenced by the remaining lifetime of the plant and its thermal efficiency. In any case the price of CO2 will work to bring forward the decision to abandon in older and less efficient coal-fired plants, which are less likely to be retrofitted in the future.power plants, coal, natural gas, emission allowances, futures markets, stochastic processes, abandonment, real options

Instrumentalizing Jurors: An Argument Against the Fourth Amendment Exclusionary Rule

In this symposium contribution, I contend that the application of the Fourth Amendment exclusionary rule in cases tried by juries raises troubling moral issues that are not present when a judge adjudicates a case on his or her own. Specifically, I argue that the exclusionary rule infringes upon jurors’ deliberative autonomy by depriving them of available evidence that rationally bears upon their verdict and by instrumentalizing them in service to the Court’s deterrence objectives. After considering ways in which those moral problems could be at least partially mitigated, I contend that the best approach might be to abandon the exclusionary rule entirely. I suggest that the Supreme Court might already be willing to abandon the rule, provided that Congress enacts reforms aimed at making the threat of financial liability for Fourth Amendment violations more robust. I close by identifying several ways in which Congress could help pave the way for the exclusionary rule’s demise

On the computation of the Picard group for K3K3 surfaces

We construct examples of $K3$ surfaces of geometric Picard rank $1$. Our method is a refinement of that of R. van Luijk. It is based on an analysis of the Galois module structure on \'etale cohomology. This allows to abandon the original limitation to cases of Picard rank $2$ after reduction modulo $p$. Furthermore, the use of Galois data enables us to construct examples which require significantly less computation time

Again-st Abandon. National Report Index

Lo studio e' stato realizzato da Stoa' e Studio Staff nell'ambito del progetto "AGAIN-ST ABANDON Contrastare il fenomeno degli abbandoni, ripensare i linguaggi della consulenza". Il progetto Again-st Abandon, finanziato dal Programma europeo "Leonardo da Vinci", si pone l'obiettivo di contrastare il fenomeno dei drop-out (DO) - quei giovani che interrompono il percorso scolastico e formativo rendendosi invisibili agli operatori del sociale - nell'ottica di un loro reinserimento nei contesti formali di istruzione, formazione ed impiego. Nel paper viene sviluppata un'analisi territoriale dell'area del Comune di Ercolano tesa ad indagare la domanda e l'offerta di servizi di orientamento e formazione, oltre alla visibilita' e all'accessibilita' degli stessi, attraverso l'utilizzo di dati statistici e indicatori di tipo qualitativo