Data-driven satisficing measure and ranking

We propose an computational framework for real-time risk assessment and prioritizing for random outcomes without prior information on probability distributions. The basic model is built based on satisficing measure (SM) which yields a single index for risk comparison. Since SM is a dual representation for a family of risk measures, we consider problems constrained by general convex risk measures and specifically by Conditional value-at-risk. Starting from offline optimization, we apply sample average approximation technique and argue the convergence rate and validation of optimal solutions. In online stochastic optimization case, we develop primal-dual stochastic approximation algorithms respectively for general risk constrained problems, and derive their regret bounds. For both offline and online cases, we illustrate the relationship between risk ranking accuracy with sample size (or iterations).Comment: 26 Pages, 6 Figure

A distributionally robust index tracking model with the CVaR penalty: tractable reformulation

We propose a distributionally robust index tracking model with the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) penalty. The model combines the idea of distributionally robust optimization for data uncertainty and the CVaR penalty to avoid large tracking errors. The probability ambiguity is described through a confidence region based on the first-order and second-order moments of the random vector involved. We reformulate the model in the form of a min-max-min optimization into an equivalent nonsmooth minimization problem. We further give an approximate discretization scheme of the possible continuous random vector of the nonsmooth minimization problem, whose objective function involves the maximum of numerous but finite nonsmooth functions. The convergence of the discretization scheme to the equivalent nonsmooth reformulation is shown under mild conditions. A smoothing projected gradient (SPG) method is employed to solve the discretization scheme. Any accumulation point is shown to be a global minimizer of the discretization scheme. Numerical results on the NASDAQ index dataset from January 2008 to July 2023 demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model and the efficiency of the SPG method, compared with several state-of-the-art models and corresponding methods for solving them

Adaptive sampling strategies for risk-averse stochastic optimization with constraints

We introduce adaptive sampling methods for risk-neutral and risk-averse stochastic programs with deterministic constraints. In particular, we propose a variant of the stochastic projected gradient method where the sample size used to approximate the reduced gradient is determined a posteriori and updated adaptively. We also propose an SQP-type method based on similar adaptive sampling principles. Both methods lead to a significant reduction in cost. Numerical experiments from finance and engineering illustrate the performance and efficacy of the presented algorithms. The methods here are applicable to a broad class of expectation-based risk measures, however, we focus mainly on expected risk and conditional value-at-risk minimization problems