Identification of Parametric Underspread Linear Systems and Super-Resolution Radar

Identification of time-varying linear systems, which introduce both time-shifts (delays) and frequency-shifts (Doppler-shifts), is a central task in many engineering applications. This paper studies the problem of identification of underspread linear systems (ULSs), whose responses lie within a unit-area region in the delay Doppler space, by probing them with a known input signal. It is shown that sufficiently-underspread parametric linear systems, described by a finite set of delays and Doppler-shifts, are identifiable from a single observation as long as the time bandwidth product of the input signal is proportional to the square of the total number of delay Doppler pairs in the system. In addition, an algorithm is developed that enables identification of parametric ULSs from an input train of pulses in polynomial time by exploiting recent results on sub-Nyquist sampling for time delay estimation and classical results on recovery of frequencies from a sum of complex exponentials. Finally, application of these results to super-resolution target detection using radar is discussed. Specifically, it is shown that the proposed procedure allows to distinguish between multiple targets with very close proximity in the delay Doppler space, resulting in a resolution that substantially exceeds that of standard matched-filtering based techniques without introducing leakage effects inherent in recently proposed compressed sensing-based radar methods.Comment: Revised version of a journal paper submitted to IEEE Trans. Signal Processing: 30 pages, 17 figure

Elicitability and backtesting: Perspectives for banking regulation

Conditional forecasts of risk measures play an important role in internal risk management of financial institutions as well as in regulatory capital calculations. In order to assess forecasting performance of a risk measurement procedure, risk measure forecasts are compared to the realized financial losses over a period of time and a statistical test of correctness of the procedure is conducted. This process is known as backtesting. Such traditional backtests are concerned with assessing some optimality property of a set of risk measure estimates. However, they are not suited to compare different risk estimation procedures. We investigate the proposal of comparative backtests, which are better suited for method comparisons on the basis of forecasting accuracy, but necessitate an elicitable risk measure. We argue that supplementing traditional backtests with comparative backtests will enhance the existing trading book regulatory framework for banks by providing the correct incentive for accuracy of risk measure forecasts. In addition, the comparative backtesting framework could be used by banks internally as well as by researchers to guide selection of forecasting methods. The discussion focuses on three risk measures, Value-at-Risk, expected shortfall and expectiles, and is supported by a simulation study and data analysis

Optimal cross-validation in density estimation with the L2L^2-loss

We analyze the performance of cross-validation (CV) in the density estimation framework with two purposes: (i) risk estimation and (ii) model selection. The main focus is given to the so-called leave-$p$-out CV procedure (Lpo), where $p$ denotes the cardinality of the test set. Closed-form expressions are settled for the Lpo estimator of the risk of projection estimators. These expressions provide a great improvement upon $V$-fold cross-validation in terms of variability and computational complexity. From a theoretical point of view, closed-form expressions also enable to study the Lpo performance in terms of risk estimation. The optimality of leave-one-out (Loo), that is Lpo with $p=1$, is proved among CV procedures used for risk estimation. Two model selection frameworks are also considered: estimation, as opposed to identification. For estimation with finite sample size $n$, optimality is achieved for $p$ large enough [with $p/n=o(1)$] to balance the overfitting resulting from the structure of the model collection. For identification, model selection consistency is settled for Lpo as long as $p/n$ is conveniently related to the rate of convergence of the best estimator in the collection: (i) $p/n\to1$ as $n\to+\infty$ with a parametric rate, and (ii) $p/n=o(1)$ with some nonparametric estimators. These theoretical results are validated by simulation experiments.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOS1240 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org