Modeling and Prediction of Iran's Steel Consumption Based on Economic Activity Using Support Vector Machines

The steel industry has great impacts on the economy and the environment of both developed and underdeveloped countries. The importance of this industry and these impacts have led many researchers to investigate the relationship between a country's steel consumption and its economic activity resulting in the so-called intensity of use model. This paper investigates the validity of the intensity of use model for the case of Iran's steel consumption and extends this hypothesis by using the indexes of economic activity to model the steel consumption. We use the proposed model to train support vector machines and predict the future values for Iran's steel consumption. The paper provides detailed correlation tests for the factors used in the model to check for their relationships with the steel consumption. The results indicate that Iran's steel consumption is strongly correlated with its economic activity following the same pattern as the economy has been in the last four decades.Comment: 13 pages, 13 figure

Clustering Time-Series by a Novel Slope-Based Similarity Measure Considering Particle Swarm Optimization

Recently there has been an increase in the studies on time-series data mining specifically time-series clustering due to the vast existence of time-series in various domains. The large volume of data in the form of time-series makes it necessary to employ various techniques such as clustering to understand the data and to extract information and hidden patterns. In the field of clustering specifically, time-series clustering, the most important aspects are the similarity measure used and the algorithm employed to conduct the clustering. In this paper, a new similarity measure for time-series clustering is developed based on a combination of a simple representation of time-series, slope of each segment of time-series, Euclidean distance and the so-called dynamic time warping. It is proved in this paper that the proposed distance measure is metric and thus indexing can be applied. For the task of clustering, the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm is employed. The proposed similarity measure is compared to three existing measures in terms of various criteria used for the evaluation of clustering algorithms. The results indicate that the proposed similarity measure outperforms the rest in almost every dataset used in this paper.Comment: 27 pages, 8 figures, 12 table

Multivariate, Multistep Forecasting, Reconstruction and Feature Selection of Ocean Waves via Recurrent and Sequence-to-Sequence Networks

This article explores the concepts of ocean wave multivariate multistep forecasting, reconstruction and feature selection. We introduce recurrent neural network frameworks, integrated with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization and Elastic Net methods. We consider both short- and long-term forecasts and reconstruction, for significant wave height and output power of the ocean waves. Sequence-to-sequence neural networks are being developed for the first time to reconstruct the missing characteristics of ocean waves based on information from nearby wave sensors. Our results indicate that the Adam and AMSGrad optimization algorithms are the most robust ones to optimize the sequence-to-sequence network. For the case of significant wave height reconstruction, we compare the proposed methods with alternatives on a well-studied dataset. We show the superiority of the proposed methods considering several error metrics. We design a new case study based on measurement stations along the east coast of the United States and investigate the feature selection concept. Comparisons substantiate the benefit of utilizing Elastic Net. Moreover, case study results indicate that when the number of features is considerable, having deeper structures improves the performance