A model of road traffic as a resource risk loss in the elderly population of Croatia

Background and Purpose: Use of the road traffic resource inevitably leads to significant human andmaterial losses. Thus, the standardized death rate among older people (65years) in the European Union was 19.8 in 2000 and 11.9 in 2011. A model is proposed of human loss through RTA to establish the main resource losses and major risk loss factors for victimization of the elderly population (65years), as compared to the risk prone young population (18–24 years). Materials andMethods:Data onRTA in Croatia are obtained fromthe official government bulletin for road safety of the Ministry of the Interior for the period 2000–2011. Minimum and maximum number of victims and mean expected loss are used for determination of environmental risks and risk proneness. Results and Conclusions: A comparative victimization analysis for Croatia for the period 2000–2011 shows significant losses for mild and severe injury to younger RT participants, increased mild injury to elderly drivers, and increased severe injury among elderly pedestrians.Risk ismostly expressed in fatal RTA for younger participantswith risk proneness of 32.4%. The most exposed RT users are: severely injured elderly drivers with unprofitable and profitable risks between 32.8 % and 50.9 %, fatally injured elderly drivers with unprofitable and profitable risks between 43.2 % and 66.1 %, and fatally injured elderly pedestrians with unprofitable and profitable risks between 93.9%and 86.3%. These facts demand preventive actions for these users on the side of car and road designers and traffic educators as well

An approach to the assessment of potentially risky behaviour of ICT systems’ users

Korisnika informacijsko komunikacijskog sustava treba promatrati njegovim sastavnim dijelom, jer korisnik svojim rizičnim ponašanjem može značajno utjecati na ukupnu razinu sigurnosti sustava. Cilj rada je razviti postupak modeliranja sustava za procjenu rizičnog ponašanja korisnika. Ontologija i OWL simbolički jezik su odabrani za izradu strukture semantičkog modela odnosno formalizaciju prikupljenog znanja iz domene "ponašanja korisnika sustava sa stajališta sigurnosti". Za procjenu ponašanja odabran je algoritam za evidencijsko zaključivanje koji se koristi za pocjenu stanja te omogućuje usporedbu zatečenog stanja više sustava. Dobiveni normirani rezultati obrade su dali ocjenu ponašanja korisnika u rasponu od 0,066 za naivno do 1,000 za "paranoidno" ponašanje. U radu je prikazan način upotrebe algoritma za evidencijsko zaključivanje prilikom procjene ljudskog dijela tehničkog sustava, način procjene cijele grupe umjesto pojedinačnog procjenjivanja te su definirani uvjeti mapiranja algoritma i ontološke strukture.Information and Communication Technology system’s user should be considered as system’s component, because user’s behaviour can significantly affect the system’s security level. The aim of this paper is to develop an assessment method for user’s potentially risky behaviour. Ontology and OWL symbolic language have been chosen in order to define the semantic model and to formalize the knowledge of the domain on "user’s potentially risky behaviour". The Evidential Reasoning algorithm has been chosen for assessment of user’s behaviour. The normalized results for assessment on user’s behaviour give an interval ranging from 0,066 for the "naïve" user to 1,000 for the "paranoid" system’s user which can be used for reference in future work. This paper shows how to use the Evidential Reasoning algorithm to evaluate the human part of a technical system, how to evaluate a group of users instead of an individual evaluation. Furthermore, conditions required to map the algorithm to the ontological structure are defined

A RISK HYPOTHESIS AND RISK MEASURES FOR THROUGHPUT CAPACITY IN SYSTEMS

A basic risk hypothesis, expressed as a risk equation, for system throughput capacity (1), and governing all non-growth, non-evolving agent-directed systems, is proposed and derived. The equation relates throughput capacity, resource and risk relative to the system environment, for efficient environments. The risk equation may be combined with, and thus enhances, a resource-sharing equation relating throughput capacity, resources and the time required to execute complex coordinated sharing procedures, an equation derived in an earlier paper. The basic risk equation shows how expected 1 increases [decreases] linearly with positive [negative] risk of loss of 1 in efficient environments. The conventional standard deviation risk measure with respect to the mean, from financial systems, may be used. A proposed, new, usually equivalent measure, called the mean-expected loss risk measure with respect to the hazard-free case, is shown to be more approximate for systems in general. The concept of an efficient system environment is also proposed. All quantities used in the equation are precisely defined and their units specified. The equation reduces to a numerical expression, and can be subjected to experimental test. The equation clarifies and quantifies basic principles, enabling designers and operators of systems to reason correctly about system risk.We are currently acquiring citations for the work deposited into this collection. We recognize the distribution rights of this item may have been assigned to another entity, other than the author(s) of the work.If you can provide the citation for this work or you think you own the distribution rights to this work please contact the Institutional Repository Administrator at [email protected]