44,856 research outputs found
Probabilistic Reachability Analysis for Large Scale Stochastic Hybrid Systems
This paper studies probabilistic reachability analysis for large scale stochastic hybrid systems (SHS) as a problem of rare event estimation. In literature, advanced rare event estimation theory has recently been embedded within a stochastic analysis framework, and this has led to significant novel results in rare event estimation for a diffusion process using sequential MC simulation. This paper presents this rare event estimation theory directly in terms of probabilistic reachability analysis of an SHS, and develops novel theory which allows to extend the novel results for application to a large scale SHS where a very huge number of rare discrete modes may contribute significantly to the reach probability. Essentially, the approach taken is to introduce an aggregation of the discrete modes, and to develop importance sampling relative to the rare switching between the aggregation modes. The practical working of this approach is demonstrated for the safety verification of an advanced air traffic control example
Multi-path Probabilistic Available Bandwidth Estimation through Bayesian Active Learning
Knowing the largest rate at which data can be sent on an end-to-end path such
that the egress rate is equal to the ingress rate with high probability can be
very practical when choosing transmission rates in video streaming or selecting
peers in peer-to-peer applications. We introduce probabilistic available
bandwidth, which is defined in terms of ingress rates and egress rates of
traffic on a path, rather than in terms of capacity and utilization of the
constituent links of the path like the standard available bandwidth metric. In
this paper, we describe a distributed algorithm, based on a probabilistic
graphical model and Bayesian active learning, for simultaneously estimating the
probabilistic available bandwidth of multiple paths through a network. Our
procedure exploits the fact that each packet train provides information not
only about the path it traverses, but also about any path that shares a link
with the monitored path. Simulations and PlanetLab experiments indicate that
this process can dramatically reduce the number of probes required to generate
accurate estimates
A Feature-Based Bayesian Method for Content Popularity Prediction in Edge-Caching Networks
Edge-caching is recognized as an efficient technique for future wireless
cellular networks to improve network capacity and user-perceived quality of
experience. Due to the random content requests and the limited cache memory,
designing an efficient caching policy is a challenge. To enhance the
performance of caching systems, an accurate content request prediction
algorithm is essential. Here, we introduce a flexible model, a Poisson
regressor based on a Gaussian process, for the content request distribution in
stationary environments. Our proposed model can incorporate the content
features as side information for prediction enhancement. In order to learn the
model parameters, which yield the Poisson rates or alternatively content
popularities, we invoke the Bayesian approach which is very robust against
over-fitting.
However, the posterior distribution in the Bayes formula is analytically
intractable to compute. To tackle this issue, we apply a Monte Carlo Markov
Chain (MCMC) method to approximate the posterior distribution. Two types of
predictive distributions are formulated for the requests of existing contents
and for the requests of a newly-added content. Finally, simulation results are
provided to confirm the accuracy of the developed content popularity learning
approach.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1903.0306
Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey
With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments,
the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human
behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future
positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key
tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance
systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We
review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different
communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on
the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We
provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We
discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further
research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR),
37 page
Large scale probabilistic available bandwidth estimation
The common utilization-based definition of available bandwidth and many of
the existing tools to estimate it suffer from several important weaknesses: i)
most tools report a point estimate of average available bandwidth over a
measurement interval and do not provide a confidence interval; ii) the commonly
adopted models used to relate the available bandwidth metric to the measured
data are invalid in almost all practical scenarios; iii) existing tools do not
scale well and are not suited to the task of multi-path estimation in
large-scale networks; iv) almost all tools use ad-hoc techniques to address
measurement noise; and v) tools do not provide enough flexibility in terms of
accuracy, overhead, latency and reliability to adapt to the requirements of
various applications. In this paper we propose a new definition for available
bandwidth and a novel framework that addresses these issues. We define
probabilistic available bandwidth (PAB) as the largest input rate at which we
can send a traffic flow along a path while achieving, with specified
probability, an output rate that is almost as large as the input rate. PAB is
expressed directly in terms of the measurable output rate and includes
adjustable parameters that allow the user to adapt to different application
requirements. Our probabilistic framework to estimate network-wide
probabilistic available bandwidth is based on packet trains, Bayesian
inference, factor graphs and active sampling. We deploy our tool on the
PlanetLab network and our results show that we can obtain accurate estimates
with a much smaller measurement overhead compared to existing approaches.Comment: Submitted to Computer Network
- …