A tutorial on recursive models for analyzing and predicting path choice behavior

The problem at the heart of this tutorial consists in modeling the path choice behavior of network users. This problem has been extensively studied in transportation science, where it is known as the route choice problem. In this literature, individuals' choice of paths are typically predicted using discrete choice models. This article is a tutorial on a specific category of discrete choice models called recursive, and it makes three main contributions: First, for the purpose of assisting future research on route choice, we provide a comprehensive background on the problem, linking it to different fields including inverse optimization and inverse reinforcement learning. Second, we formally introduce the problem and the recursive modeling idea along with an overview of existing models, their properties and applications. Third, we extensively analyze illustrative examples from different angles so that a novice reader can gain intuition on the problem and the advantages provided by recursive models in comparison to path-based ones

a cross-entropy based multiagent approach for multiclass activity chain modeling and simulation

This paper attempts to model complex destination-chain, departure time and route choices based on activity plan implementation and proposes an arc-based cross entropy method for solving approximately the dynamic user equilibrium in multiagent-based multiclass network context. A multiagent-based dynamic activity chain model is developed, combining travelers' day-to-day learning process in the presence of both traffic flow and activity supply dynamics. The learning process towards user equilibrium in multiagent systems is based on the framework of Bellman's principle of optimality, and iteratively solved by the cross entropy method. A numerical example is implemented to illustrate the performance of the proposed method on a multiclass queuing network.dynamic traffic assignment, cross entropy method, activity chain, multiagent, Bellman equation

Trip Prediction by Leveraging Trip Histories from Neighboring Users

We propose a novel approach for trip prediction by analyzing user's trip histories. We augment users' (self-) trip histories by adding 'similar' trips from other users, which could be informative and useful for predicting future trips for a given user. This also helps to cope with noisy or sparse trip histories, where the self-history by itself does not provide a reliable prediction of future trips. We show empirical evidence that by enriching the users' trip histories with additional trips, one can improve the prediction error by 15%-40%, evaluated on multiple subsets of the Nancy2012 dataset. This real-world dataset is collected from public transportation ticket validations in the city of Nancy, France. Our prediction tool is a central component of a trip simulator system designed to analyze the functionality of public transportation in the city of Nancy

Variance analysis and linear contracts in agencies with distorted performance measures

This paper investigates the role of variance analysis procedures in aligning objectives under the condition of distorted performance measurement. A riskneutral agency with linear contracts is analyzed, whereby the agent receives postcontract, pre-decision information on his productivity. If the performance measure is informative with respect to the agent’s marginal product concerning the principal’s objective, variance investigation can alleviate effort misallocation. These results carry over to a participative budgeting situation, but in this case the variance investigation procedures are less demanding

Discrete events: Perspectives from system theory

Systems Theory;differentiaal/ integraal-vergelijkingen