Wind models and cross-site interpolation for the refugee reception islands in Greece

In this study, the wind data series from five locations in Aegean Sea islands, the most active `hotspots' in terms of refugee influx during the Oct/2015 - Jan/2016 period, are investigated. The analysis of the three-per-site data series includes standard statistical analysis and parametric distributions, auto-correlation analysis, cross-correlation analysis between the sites, as well as various ARMA models for estimating the feasibility and accuracy of such spatio-temporal linear regressors for predictive analytics. Strong correlations are detected across specific sites and appropriately trained ARMA(7,5) models achieve 1-day look-ahead error (RMSE) of less than 1.9 km/h on average wind speed. The results show that such data-driven statistical approaches are extremely useful in identifying unexpected and sometimes counter-intuitive associations between the available spatial data nodes, which is very important when designing corresponding models for short-term forecasting of sea condition, especially average wave height and direction, which is in fact what defines the associated weather risk of crossing these passages in refugee influx patterns.Comment: 23 figures, 3 tables, 17 reference

Identification of refugee influx patterns in Greece via model-theoretic analysis of daily arrivals

The refugee crisis is perhaps the single most challenging problem for Europe today. Hundreds of thousands of people have already traveled across dangerous sea passages from Turkish shores to Greek islands, resulting in thousands of dead and missing, despite the best rescue efforts from both sides. One of the main reasons is the total lack of any early warning-alerting system, which could provide some preparation time for the prompt and effective deployment of resources at the hot zones. This work is such an attempt for a systemic analysis of the refugee influx in Greece, aiming at (a) the statistical and signal-level characterization of the smuggling networks and (b) the formulation and preliminary assessment of such models for predictive purposes, i.e., as the basis of such an early warning-alerting protocol. To our knowledge, this is the first-ever attempt to design such a system, since this refugee crisis itself and its geographical properties are unique (intense event handling, little or no warning). The analysis employs a wide range of statistical, signal-based and matrix factorization (decomposition) techniques, including linear & linear-cosine regression, spectral analysis, ARMA, SVD, Probabilistic PCA, ICA, K-SVD for Dictionary Learning, as well as fractal dimension analysis. It is established that the behavioral patterns of the smuggling networks closely match (as expected) the regular burst and pause periods of store-and-forward networks in digital communications. There are also major periodic trends in the range of 6.2-6.5 days and strong correlations in lags of four or more days, with distinct preference in the Sunday-Monday 48-hour time frame. These results show that such models can be used successfully for short-term forecasting of the influx intensity, producing an invaluable operational asset for planners, decision-makers and first-responders.Comment: 21 pages, 26 figures, 1 table, 23 equations, 72 reference

Julia Language in Machine Learning: Algorithms, Applications, and Open Issues

Machine learning is driving development across many fields in science and engineering. A simple and efficient programming language could accelerate applications of machine learning in various fields. Currently, the programming languages most commonly used to develop machine learning algorithms include Python, MATLAB, and C/C ++. However, none of these languages well balance both efficiency and simplicity. The Julia language is a fast, easy-to-use, and open-source programming language that was originally designed for high-performance computing, which can well balance the efficiency and simplicity. This paper summarizes the related research work and developments in the application of the Julia language in machine learning. It first surveys the popular machine learning algorithms that are developed in the Julia language. Then, it investigates applications of the machine learning algorithms implemented with the Julia language. Finally, it discusses the open issues and the potential future directions that arise in the use of the Julia language in machine learning.Comment: Published in Computer Science Revie

A predictive analytics approach to reducing avoidable hospital readmission

Hospital readmission has become a critical metric of quality and cost of healthcare. Medicare anticipates that nearly $17 billion is paid out on the 20% of patients who are readmitted within 30 days of discharge. Although several interventions such as transition care management and discharge reengineering have been practiced in recent years, the effectiveness and sustainability depends on how well they can identify and target patients at high risk of rehospitalization. Based on the literature, most current risk prediction models fail to reach an acceptable accuracy level; none of them considers patient's history of readmission and impacts of patient attribute changes over time; and they often do not discriminate between planned and unnecessary readmissions. Tackling such drawbacks, we develop a new readmission metric based on administrative data that can identify potentially avoidable readmissions from all other types of readmission. We further propose a tree based classification method to estimate the predicted probability of readmission that can directly incorporate patient's history of readmission and risk factors changes over time. The proposed methods are validated with 2011-12 Veterans Health Administration data from inpatients hospitalized for heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, pneumonia, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in the State of Michigan. Results shows improved discrimination power compared to the literature (c-statistics>80%) and good calibration.Comment: 30 pages, 4 figures, 7 table

Simulation of Patient Flow in Multiple Healthcare Units using Process and Data Mining Techniques for Model Identification

Introduction: An approach to building a hybrid simulation of patient flow is introduced with a combination of data-driven methods for automation of model identification. The approach is described with a conceptual framework and basic methods for combination of different techniques. The implementation of the proposed approach for simulation of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) was developed and used within an experimental study. Methods: Combination of data, text, and process mining techniques and machine learning approaches for analysis of electronic health records (EHRs) with discrete-event simulation (DES) and queueing theory for simulation of patient flow was proposed. The performed analysis of EHRs for ACS patients enable identification of several classes of clinical pathways (CPs) which were used to implement a more realistic simulation of the patient flow. The developed solution was implemented using Python libraries (SimPy, SciPy, and others). Results: The proposed approach enables more realistic and detailed simulation of the patient flow within a group of related departments. Experimental study shows that the improved simulation of patient length of stay for ACS patient flow obtained from EHRs in Federal Almazov North-west Medical Research Centre in Saint Petersburg, Russia. Conclusion: The proposed approach, methods, and solutions provide a conceptual, methodological, and programming framework for implementation of simulation of complex and diverse scenarios within a flow of patients for different purposes: decision making, training, management optimization, and others

Visual Analytics in Deep Learning: An Interrogative Survey for the Next Frontiers

Deep learning has recently seen rapid development and received significant attention due to its state-of-the-art performance on previously-thought hard problems. However, because of the internal complexity and nonlinear structure of deep neural networks, the underlying decision making processes for why these models are achieving such performance are challenging and sometimes mystifying to interpret. As deep learning spreads across domains, it is of paramount importance that we equip users of deep learning with tools for understanding when a model works correctly, when it fails, and ultimately how to improve its performance. Standardized toolkits for building neural networks have helped democratize deep learning; visual analytics systems have now been developed to support model explanation, interpretation, debugging, and improvement. We present a survey of the role of visual analytics in deep learning research, which highlights its short yet impactful history and thoroughly summarizes the state-of-the-art using a human-centered interrogative framework, focusing on the Five W's and How (Why, Who, What, How, When, and Where). We conclude by highlighting research directions and open research problems. This survey helps researchers and practitioners in both visual analytics and deep learning to quickly learn key aspects of this young and rapidly growing body of research, whose impact spans a diverse range of domains.Comment: Under review for IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics (TVCG

How 5G (and concomitant technologies) will revolutionize healthcare

In this paper, we build the case that 5G and concomitant emerging technologies (such as IoT, big data, artificial intelligence, and machine learning) will transform global healthcare systems in the near future. Our optimism around 5G-enabled healthcare stems from a confluence of significant technical pushes that are already at play: apart from the availability of high-throughput low-latency wireless connectivity, other significant factors include the democratization of computing through cloud computing; the democratization of AI and cognitive computing (e.g., IBM Watson); and the commoditization of data through crowdsourcing and digital exhaust. These technologies together can finally crack a dysfunctional healthcare system that has largely been impervious to technological innovations. We highlight the persistent deficiencies of the current healthcare system, and then demonstrate how the 5G-enabled healthcare revolution can fix these deficiencies. We also highlight open technical research challenges, and potential pitfalls, that may hinder the development of such a 5G-enabled health revolution

iNNvestigate neural networks!

In recent years, deep neural networks have revolutionized many application domains of machine learning and are key components of many critical decision or predictive processes. Therefore, it is crucial that domain specialists can understand and analyze actions and pre- dictions, even of the most complex neural network architectures. Despite these arguments neural networks are often treated as black boxes. In the attempt to alleviate this short- coming many analysis methods were proposed, yet the lack of reference implementations often makes a systematic comparison between the methods a major effort. The presented library iNNvestigate addresses this by providing a common interface and out-of-the- box implementation for many analysis methods, including the reference implementation for PatternNet and PatternAttribution as well as for LRP-methods. To demonstrate the versatility of iNNvestigate, we provide an analysis of image classifications for variety of state-of-the-art neural network architectures

Surgical Data Science -- from Concepts to Clinical Translation

Recent developments in data science in general and machine learning in particular have transformed the way experts envision the future of surgery. Surgical data science is a new research field that aims to improve the quality of interventional healthcare through the capture, organization, analysis and modeling of data. While an increasing number of data-driven approaches and clinical applications have been studied in the fields of radiological and clinical data science, translational success stories are still lacking in surgery. In this publication, we shed light on the underlying reasons and provide a roadmap for future advances in the field. Based on an international workshop involving leading researchers in the field of surgical data science, we review current practice, key achievements and initiatives as well as available standards and tools for a number of topics relevant to the field, namely (1) technical infrastructure for data acquisition, storage and access in the presence of regulatory constraints, (2) data annotation and sharing and (3) data analytics. Drawing from this extensive review, we present current challenges for technology development and (4) describe a roadmap for faster clinical translation and exploitation of the full potential of surgical data science

PyHealth: A Python Library for Health Predictive Models

Despite the explosion of interest in healthcare AI research, the reproducibility and benchmarking of those research works are often limited due to the lack of standard benchmark datasets and diverse evaluation metrics. To address this reproducibility challenge, we develop PyHealth, an open-source Python toolbox for developing various predictive models on healthcare data. PyHealth consists of data preprocessing module, predictive modeling module, and evaluation module. The target users of PyHealth are both computer science researchers and healthcare data scientists. With PyHealth, they can conduct complex machine learning pipelines on healthcare datasets with fewer than ten lines of code. The data preprocessing module enables the transformation of complex healthcare datasets such as longitudinal electronic health records, medical images, continuous signals (e.g., electrocardiogram), and clinical notes into machine learning friendly formats. The predictive modeling module provides more than 30 machine learning models, including established ensemble trees and deep neural network-based approaches, via a unified but extendable API designed for both researchers and practitioners. The evaluation module provides various evaluation strategies (e.g., cross-validation and train-validation-test split) and predictive model metrics. With robustness and scalability in mind, best practices such as unit testing, continuous integration, code coverage, and interactive examples are introduced in the library's development. PyHealth can be installed through the Python Package Index (PyPI) or https://github.com/yzhao062/PyHealth