Process fault prediction and prognosis based on a hybrid technique

The present study introduces a novel hybrid methodology for fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) and fault prediction and prognosis (FPP). The hybrid methodology combines both data-driven and process knowledge driven techniques. The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and the auxiliary codes detect and predict the abnormalities based on process history while the Bayesian Network (BN) diagnoses the root cause of the fault based on process knowledge. In the first step, the system performance is evaluated for fault detection and diagnosis and in the second step, prediction and prognosis are evaluated. In both cases, an HMM trained with Normal Operating Condition data is used to determine the log-likelihoods (LL) of each process history data string. It is then used to develop the Conditional Probability Tables of BN while the structure of BN is developed based on process knowledge. Abnormal behaviour of the system is identified through HMM. The time of detection of an abnormality, respective LL value, and the probabilities of being in the process condition at the time of detection are used to generate the likelihood evidence to BN. The updated BN is then used to diagnose the root cause by considering the respective changes of the probabilities. Performance of the new technique is validated with published data of Tennessee Eastman Process. Eight of the ten selected faults were successfully detected and diagnosed. The same set of faults were predicted and prognosed accurately at different levels of maximum added noise

Sensor Fault Detection and Isolation Using System Dynamics Identification Techniques.

A sensor, generally composed of a power supply, a sensing device, a transducer, and a signal processor, behaves like any other dynamic system. A damage in any of its components can cause unexpected deviations in the sensor measurements from the actual values. Due to its increasing importance in system diagnosis and controls, a faulty sensor may lead to a process shut down or even a fatal accident in safety-critical systems. One of the the challenge is to detect and isolate a fault in the sensor from one in the monitored system once abnormal behaviors are observed in the measurements. This work first tackles such a challenge in a single-input-single-output system by tracking the dynamic response and the associated gain factor of the sensor and the monitored system. Inspired by the fact that sensor measurements depict the dynamics of the monitored plant and the sensor, a subspace identification approach is proposed to detect, isolate, and accommodate a sensor failure under regular operation conditions without additional hardware components. In order to deal with the increased complexity in a multiple-input-multiple-output system, an approach is then proposed to identify the underlying relations in a nonlinear dynamic system with a set of linear models, each capturing the system dynamics in the representative operating regime. Evaluated based on the minimum description length principle, the proposed approach identifies the most correlated system inputs for the target output and the associated model structure using genetic algorithm. An approach is finally developed to detect and isolate sensor faults and air leaks in a diesel engine air path system, a highly dynamic multiple-input-multiple-output system. The proposed approach utilizes analytical redundancies among the intake air mass flow rates and the pressures in the boost and intake manifolds. Without the need for a complete model of the target system, fault detectors are constructed in this work using the growing structure multiple model system identification algorithm. Given the addition information on operation regime from the identified model, the proposed approach evaluates both the global and local properties of the generated residuals to detect and isolate the potential sensor and system faults.Ph.D.Mechanical EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/89790/1/jiangli_1.pd

Increasing the robustness of autonomous systems to hardware degradation using machine learning

Autonomous systems perform predetermined tasks (missions) with minimum supervision. In most applications, the state of the world changes with time. Sensors are employed to measure part or whole of the world’s state. However, sensors often fail amidst operation; feeding as such decision-making with wrong information about the world. Moreover, hardware degradation may alter dynamic behaviour, and subsequently the capabilities, of an autonomous system; rendering the original mission infeasible. This thesis applies machine learning to yield powerful and robust tools that can facilitate autonomy in modern systems. Incremental kernel regression is used for dynamic modelling. Algorithms of this sort are easy to train and are highly adaptive. Adaptivity allows for model adjustments, whenever the environment of operation changes. Bayesian reasoning provides a rigorous framework for addressing uncertainty. Moreover, using Bayesian Networks, complex inference regarding hardware degradation can be answered. Specifically, adaptive modelling is combined with Bayesian reasoning to yield recursive estimation algorithms that are robust to sensor failures. Two solutions are presented by extending existing recursive estimation algorithms from the robotics literature. The algorithms are deployed on an underwater vehicle and the performance is assessed in real-world experiments. A comparison against standard filters is also provided. Next, the previous algorithms are extended to consider sensor and actuator failures jointly. An algorithm that can detect thruster failures in an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle has been developed. Moreover, the algorithm adapts the dynamic model online to compensate for the detected fault. The performance of this algorithm was also tested in a real-world application. One step further than hardware fault detection, prognostics predict how much longer can a particular hardware component operate normally. Ubiquitous sensors in modern systems render data-driven prognostics a viable solution. However, training is based on skewed datasets; datasets where the samples from the faulty region of operation are much fewer than the ones from the healthy region of operation. This thesis presents a prognostic algorithm that tackles the problem of imbalanced (skewed) datasets

Methods and Systems for Fault Diagnosis in Nuclear Power Plants

This research mainly deals with fault diagnosis in nuclear power plants (NPP), based on a framework that integrates contributions from fault scope identification, optimal sensor placement, sensor validation, equipment condition monitoring, and diagnostic reasoning based on pattern analysis. The research has a particular focus on applications where data collected from the existing SCADA (supervisory, control, and data acquisition) system is not sufficient for the fault diagnosis system. Specifically, the following methods and systems are developed. A sensor placement model is developed to guide optimal placement of sensors in NPPs. The model includes 1) a method to extract a quantitative fault-sensor incidence matrix for a system; 2) a fault diagnosability criterion based on the degree of singularities of the incidence matrix; and 3) procedures to place additional sensors to meet the diagnosability criterion. Usefulness of the proposed method is demonstrated on a nuclear power plant process control test facility (NPCTF). Experimental results show that three pairs of undiagnosable faults can be effectively distinguished with three additional sensors selected by the proposed model. A wireless sensor network (WSN) is designed and a prototype is implemented on the NPCTF. WSN is an effective tool to collect data for fault diagnosis, especially for systems where additional measurements are needed. The WSN has distributed data processing and information fusion for fault diagnosis. Experimental results on the NPCTF show that the WSN system can be used to diagnose all six fault scenarios considered for the system. A fault diagnosis method based on semi-supervised pattern classification is developed which requires significantly fewer training data than is typically required in existing fault diagnosis models. It is a promising tool for applications in NPPs, where it is usually difficult to obtain training data under fault conditions for a conventional fault diagnosis model. The proposed method has successfully diagnosed nine types of faults physically simulated on the NPCTF. For equipment condition monitoring, a modified S-transform (MST) algorithm is developed by using shaping functions, particularly sigmoid functions, to modify the window width of the existing standard S-transform. The MST can achieve superior time-frequency resolution for applications that involves non-stationary multi-modal signals, where classical methods may fail. Effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated using a vibration test system as well as applications to detect a collapsed pipe support in the NPCTF. The experimental results show that by observing changes in time-frequency characteristics of vibration signals, one can effectively detect faults occurred in components of an industrial system. To ensure that a fault diagnosis system does not suffer from erroneous data, a fault detection and isolation (FDI) method based on kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) is extended for sensor validations, where sensor faults are detected and isolated from the reconstruction errors of a KPCA model. The method is validated using measurement data from a physical NPP. The NPCTF is designed and constructed in this research for experimental validations of fault diagnosis methods and systems. Faults can be physically simulated on the NPCTF. In addition, the NPCTF is designed to support systems based on different instrumentation and control technologies such as WSN and distributed control systems. The NPCTF has been successfully utilized to validate the algorithms and WSN system developed in this research. In a real world application, it is seldom the case that one single fault diagnostic scheme can meet all the requirements of a fault diagnostic system in a nuclear power. In fact, the values and performance of the diagnosis system can potentially be enhanced if some of the methods developed in this thesis can be integrated into a suite of diagnostic tools. In such an integrated system, WSN nodes can be used to collect additional data deemed necessary by sensor placement models. These data can be integrated with those from existing SCADA systems for more comprehensive fault diagnosis. An online performance monitoring system monitors the conditions of the equipment and provides key information for the tasks of condition-based maintenance. When a fault is detected, the measured data are subsequently acquired and analyzed by pattern classification models to identify the nature of the fault. By analyzing the symptoms of the fault, root causes of the fault can eventually be identified

Semantic Networks for Hybrid Processes.

Simulation models are often used in parallel with a physical system to facilitate control, diagnosis and monitoring. Model based methods for control, diagnosis and monitoring form the basis for the popular sobriquets `intelligent', `smart' or `cyber-physical'. We refer to a configuration where a model and a physical system are run in parallel as a emph{hybrid process}. Discrepancies between the model and the process may be caused by a fault in the process or an error in the model. In this work we focus on correcting modeling errors and provide methods to correct or update the model when a discrepancy is observed between a model and process operating in parallel. We then show that some of the methods developed for model adaptation and diagnosis can be used for control systems design. There are five main contributions. The first contribution is an analysis of the practical considerations and limitations of a networked implementation of a hybrid process. The analysis considers both the delay and jitter in a packet switching network as well as limits on the accuracy of clocks used to synchronize the model and process. The second contribution is a semantic representation of hybrid processes which enables improvements to the accuracy and scope of algorithms used to update the model. We demonstrate how model uncertainty can be balanced against signal uncertainty and how the structure of interconnections between model components can be automatically reconfigured if needed. The third contribution is a diagnostic approach to isolate model components responsible for a discrepancy between model and process, for a structure preserving realization of a system of ODEs. The fourth contribution is an extension of the diagnostic strategy to include larger graphs with cycles, model uncertainty and measurement noise. The method uses graph theoretic tools to simplify the graph and make the problem more tractable and robust to noise. The fifth contribution is a simulation of a distributed control system to illustrate our contributions. Using a coordinated network of electric vehicle charging stations as an example, a consensus based decentralized charging policy is implemented using semantic modeling and declarative descriptions of the interconnection network.PhDMechanical EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/99903/1/danand_1.pd

Machine Learning

Machine Learning can be defined in various ways related to a scientific domain concerned with the design and development of theoretical and implementation tools that allow building systems with some Human Like intelligent behavior. Machine learning addresses more specifically the ability to improve automatically through experience

An Integrated Approach to Performance Monitoring and Fault Diagnosis of Nuclear Power Systems

In this dissertation an integrated framework of process performance monitoring and fault diagnosis was developed for nuclear power systems using robust data driven model based methods, which comprises thermal hydraulic simulation, data driven modeling, identification of model uncertainty, and robust residual generator design for fault detection and isolation. In the applications to nuclear power systems, on the one hand, historical data are often not able to characterize the relationships among process variables because operating setpoints may change and thermal fluid components such as steam generators and heat exchangers may experience degradation. On the other hand, first-principle models always have uncertainty and are often too complicated in terms of model structure to design residual generators for fault diagnosis. Therefore, a realistic fault diagnosis method needs to combine the strength of first principle models in modeling a wide range of anticipated operation conditions and the strength of data driven modeling in feature extraction. In the developed robust data driven model-based approach, the changes in operation conditions are simulated using the first principle models and the model uncertainty is extracted from plant operation data such that the fault effects on process variables can be decoupled from model uncertainty and normal operation changes. It was found that the developed robust fault diagnosis method was able to eliminate false alarms due to model uncertainty and deal with changes in operating conditions throughout the lifetime of nuclear power systems. Multiple methods of robust data driven model based fault diagnosis were developed in this dissertation. A complete procedure based on causal graph theory and data reconciliation method was developed to investigate the causal relationships and the quantitative sensitivities among variables so that sensor placement could be optimized for fault diagnosis in the design phase. Reconstruction based Principal Component Analysis (PCA) approach was applied to deal with both simple faults and complex faults for steady state diagnosis in the context of operation scheduling and maintenance management. A robust PCA model-based method was developed to distinguish the differences between fault effects and model uncertainties. In order to improve the sensitivity of fault detection, a hybrid PCA model based approach was developed to incorporate system knowledge into data driven modeling. Subspace identification was proposed to extract state space models from thermal hydraulic simulations and a robust dynamic residual generator design algorithm was developed for fault diagnosis for the purpose of fault tolerant control and extension to reactor startup and load following operation conditions. The developed robust dynamic residual generator design algorithm is unique in that explicit identification of model uncertainty is not necessary. Finally, it was demonstrated that the developed new methods for the IRIS Helical Coil Steam Generator (HCSG) system. A simulation model was first developed for this system. It was revealed through steady state simulation that the primary coolant temperature profile could be used to indicate the water inventory inside the HCSG tubes. The performance monitoring and fault diagnosis module was then developed to monitor sensor faults, flow distribution abnormality, and heat performance degradation for both steady state and dynamic operation conditions. This dissertation bridges the gap between the theoretical research on computational intelligence and the engineering design in performance monitoring and fault diagnosis for nuclear power systems. The new algorithms have the potential of being integrated into the Generation III and Generation IV nuclear reactor I&C design after they are tested on current nuclear power plants or Generation IV prototype reactors