A parameter-free hedging algorithm

We study the problem of decision-theoretic online learning (DTOL). Motivated by practical applications, we focus on DTOL when the number of actions is very large. Previous algorithms for learning in this framework have a tunable learning rate parameter, and a barrier to using online-learning in practical applications is that it is not understood how to set this parameter optimally, particularly when the number of actions is large. In this paper, we offer a clean solution by proposing a novel and completely parameter-free algorithm for DTOL. We introduce a new notion of regret, which is more natural for applications with a large number of actions. We show that our algorithm achieves good performance with respect to this new notion of regret; in addition, it also achieves performance close to that of the best bounds achieved by previous algorithms with optimally-tuned parameters, according to previous notions of regret.Comment: Updated Versio

A method for Hedging in continuous time

We present a method for hedging in continuous time

Portfolio Allocation for Bayesian Optimization

Bayesian optimization with Gaussian processes has become an increasingly popular tool in the machine learning community. It is efficient and can be used when very little is known about the objective function, making it popular in expensive black-box optimization scenarios. It uses Bayesian methods to sample the objective efficiently using an acquisition function which incorporates the model's estimate of the objective and the uncertainty at any given point. However, there are several different parameterized acquisition functions in the literature, and it is often unclear which one to use. Instead of using a single acquisition function, we adopt a portfolio of acquisition functions governed by an online multi-armed bandit strategy. We propose several portfolio strategies, the best of which we call GP-Hedge, and show that this method outperforms the best individual acquisition function. We also provide a theoretical bound on the algorithm's performance.Comment: This revision contains an updated the performance bound and other minor text change

Unconstrained Online Linear Learning in Hilbert Spaces: Minimax Algorithms and Normal Approximations

We study algorithms for online linear optimization in Hilbert spaces, focusing on the case where the player is unconstrained. We develop a novel characterization of a large class of minimax algorithms, recovering, and even improving, several previous results as immediate corollaries. Moreover, using our tools, we develop an algorithm that provides a regret bound of $\mathcal{O}\Big(U \sqrt{T \log(U \sqrt{T} \log^2 T +1)}\Big)$, where $U$ is the $L_2$ norm of an arbitrary comparator and both $T$ and $U$ are unknown to the player. This bound is optimal up to $\sqrt{\log \log T}$ terms. When $T$ is known, we derive an algorithm with an optimal regret bound (up to constant factors). For both the known and unknown $T$ case, a Normal approximation to the conditional value of the game proves to be the key analysis tool.Comment: Proceedings of the 27th Annual Conference on Learning Theory (COLT 2014

Second-order Quantile Methods for Experts and Combinatorial Games

We aim to design strategies for sequential decision making that adjust to the difficulty of the learning problem. We study this question both in the setting of prediction with expert advice, and for more general combinatorial decision tasks. We are not satisfied with just guaranteeing minimax regret rates, but we want our algorithms to perform significantly better on easy data. Two popular ways to formalize such adaptivity are second-order regret bounds and quantile bounds. The underlying notions of 'easy data', which may be paraphrased as "the learning problem has small variance" and "multiple decisions are useful", are synergetic. But even though there are sophisticated algorithms that exploit one of the two, no existing algorithm is able to adapt to both. In this paper we outline a new method for obtaining such adaptive algorithms, based on a potential function that aggregates a range of learning rates (which are essential tuning parameters). By choosing the right prior we construct efficient algorithms and show that they reap both benefits by proving the first bounds that are both second-order and incorporate quantiles