A contribution to supply chain design under uncertainty

Dans le contexte actuel des chaînes logistiques, des processus d'affaires complexes et des partenaires étendus, plusieurs facteurs peuvent augmenter les chances de perturbations dans les chaînes logistiques, telles que les pertes de clients en raison de l'intensification de la concurrence, la pénurie de l'offre en raison de l'incertitude des approvisionnements, la gestion d'un grand nombre de partenaires, les défaillances et les pannes imprévisibles, etc. Prévoir et répondre aux changements qui touchent les chaînes logistiques exigent parfois de composer avec des incertitudes et des informations incomplètes. Chaque entité de la chaîne doit être choisie de façon efficace afin de réduire autant que possible les facteurs de perturbations. Configurer des chaînes logistiques efficientes peut garantir la continuité des activités de la chaîne en dépit de la présence d'événements perturbateurs. L'objectif principal de cette thèse est la conception de chaînes logistiques qui résistent aux perturbations par le biais de modèles de sélection d'acteurs fiables. Les modèles proposés permettent de réduire la vulnérabilité aux perturbations qui peuvent aV, oir un impact sur la continuité des opérations des entités de la chaîne, soient les fournisseurs, les sites de production et les sites de distribution. Le manuscrit de cette thèse s'articule autour de trois principaux chapitres: 1 - Construction d'un modèle multi-objectifs de sélection d'acteurs fiables pour la conception de chaînes logistiques en mesure de résister aux perturbations. 2 - Examen des différents concepts et des types de risques liés aux chaînes logistiques ainsi qu'une présentation d'une approche pour quantifier le risque. 3 - Développement d'un modèle d'optimisation de la fiabilité afin de réduire la vulnérabilité aux perturbations des chaînes logistiques sous l'incertitude de la sollicitation et de l'offre

Use of discrete choice to obtain urban freight evaluation data

The ex-ante evaluation of urban freight solutions is a complex task, due to the interference of different stakeholder groups with different views and objectives. The multi-actor multi-criteria methods have developed as a response to this scenario, but the determination of the weights required by them remains an unclear and controversial task. We propose the use of discrete choice methods as a powerful tool to confront these multi-faced evaluation problems, since the resulting surveys are flexible and easy to respond, and do not give away the final quantitative results. We have applied this methodology to the selection of urban freight solutions in the city of Seville, in Spain, followed by the determination of the relative weights associated to different objectives, both analyses carried out from the side of the carriers stakeholder group.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad TEC2013-47286-C3-3-

A fuzzy multi-criteria decision making approach for managing performance and risk in integrated procurement-production planning

Nowadays in Supply Chain (SC) networks, a high level of risk comes from SC partners. An effective risk management process becomes as a consequence mandatory, especially at the tactical planning level. The aim of this article is to present a risk-oriented integrated procurement–production approach for tactical planning in a multi-echelon SC network involving multiple suppliers, multiple parallel manufacturing plants, multiple subcontractors and several customers. An originality of the work is to combine an analytical model allowing to build feasible scenarios and a multi-criteria approach for assessing these scenarios. The literature has mainly addressed the problem through cost or profit-based optimisation and seldom considers more qualitative yet important criteria linked to risk, like trust in the supplier, flexibility or resilience. Unlike the traditional approaches, we present a method evaluating each possible supply scenario through performance-based and risk-based decision criteria, involving both qualitative and quantitative factors, in order to clearly separate the performance of a scenario and the risk taken if it is adopted. Since the decision-maker often cannot provide crisp values for some critical data, fuzzy sets theory is suggested in order to model vague information based on subjective expertise. Fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution is used to determine both the performance and risk measures correlated to each possible tactical plan. The applicability and tractability of the proposed approach is shown on an illustrative example and a sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the influence of criteria weights on the selection of the procurement–production plan

A fuzzy multi-criteria decision making approach for managing performance and risk in integrated procurement-production planning

Nowadays in Supply Chain (SC) networks, a high level of risk comes from SC partners. An effective risk management process becomes as a consequence mandatory, especially at the tactical planning level. The aim of this article is to present a risk-oriented integrated procurement–production approach for tactical planning in a multi-echelon SC network involving multiple suppliers, multiple parallel manufacturing plants, multiple subcontractors and several customers. An originality of the work is to combine an analytical model allowing to build feasible scenarios and a multi-criteria approach for assessing these scenarios. The literature has mainly addressed the problem through cost or profit-based optimisation and seldom considers more qualitative yet important criteria linked to risk, like trust in the supplier, flexibility or resilience. Unlike the traditional approaches, we present a method evaluating each possible supply scenario through performance-based and risk-based decision criteria, involving both qualitative and quantitative factors, in order to clearly separate the performance of a scenario and the risk taken if it is adopted. Since the decision-maker often cannot provide crisp values for some critical data, fuzzy sets theory is suggested in order to model vague information based on subjective expertise. Fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution is used to determine both the performance and risk measures correlated to each possible tactical plan. The applicability and tractability of the proposed approach is shown on an illustrative example and a sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the influence of criteria weights on the selection of the procurement–production plan

Strategic decision modeling in Brownfield redevelopment

De ruimtelijke planning en het herstructureringsproces van bedrijventerreinen zijn onlangs aan enkele belangrijke veranderingen onderhevig geweest. Ten eerste is de omvang van de ruimtelijke herstructureringsprojecten toegenomen. Ten tweede zijn de traditionele lineaire planningsprocessen vervangen door publiek-private samenwerkingen waarbinnen de rollen en de onderlinge afhankelijkheid van ontwikkelaars en overheidsorganen gewijzigd zijn. Binnen deze nieuwe kaders is de herstructurering van brownfields veelal problematisch; er treden veel conflicten op tijdens planprocessen. In dit onderzoek wordt beargumenteerd dat het gebrek aan consensus onder betrokken stakeholders een belangrijke oorzaak is van de optredende stagnatie binnen brownfield herstructureringsprocessen. Het uiteindelijke doel van dit onderzoek is het voorspellen en analyseren van het optreden van conflicten in herstructureringsprocessen, alsmede het doen van aanbevelingen over optimale publiek-private samenwerkingsovereenkomsten voor de herstructurering van brownfields. Om dit doel te verwezenlijken is er een onderzoekskader opgesteld, welke is gericht op het specificeren en analyseren van: (1) de attributen van een brownfield; (2) de voorkeuren van de groepen van actoren; en (3) de kenmerken in het onderhandelingsproces tussen de twee groepen van actoren. Voor het verzamelen van noodzakelijke data zijn er twee online enquêtes gehouden. In beide gevallen waren de geënquêteerden experts binnen een specifieke tak van gebiedsontwikkeling. Voor dit onderzoek zijn verschillende methoden gebruikt. Ten eerste is de Fuzzy Delphi methode gebruikt om brownfield attributen te structureren en te prioriteren. Stated Choice experimenten verschaffen vervolgens het inzicht in de individuele voorkeuren van verschillende actor-groepen. Deze resulterende nutsfuncties zijn uiteindelijk gebruikt als de input voor de analyse van multi-actor besluitvorming, waarvoor de methode Game Theory is gebruikt. De resultaten van het besluitvormingsproces hangen niet alleen af van een individuele keuze maar ze bevatten ook de invloed van de keuzes van een tegenspeler. Het vinden van mogelijke consensusrijke strategieën in de onderhandelingen over de herstructurering van brownfields is het doel van deze laatste stap. Tot op heden is er weinig onderzoek verricht naar de ontwikkeling van besluitvormingsmodellen waarin systematisch de kenmerken van de brownfieldterreinen en de herstructureringsplannen verbonden wordt met het gedrag van de betrokken actoren; een dergelijke verbinding kan inzicht geven in mogelijke bronnen van conflicten. Dit onderzoek draagt bij aan de ontwikkeling van modellen waarin de interactie tussen verschillende actoren binnen een complex probleemgebied wordt geanalyseerd. De resultaten van dit onderzoek ondersteunen besluitvormers en procesmanagers bij het vinden van een optimale overeenkomst in de publiek-private onderhandelingen omtrent de herstructurering van brownfields

Key challenges and meta-choices in designing and applying multi-criteria spatial decision support systems

There is an increasing use of multi-criteria spatial decision support systems in recent years for dealing with problems that have a spatial distribution of consequences. This growth might be explained by the widespread recognition that there are multiple and conflicting objectives to be considered in spatial planning (e.g. minimizing pollution to air, water and soil, increasing the acceptance of the projects, reducing implementation costs), by new requirements to consider societal values in the evaluation and to increase participation in decision processes, as well as by the crucial role that the spatial dimension plays in such problems. However, we argue in this paper that there are key challenges confronted by DSS designers who are developing such systems and by DSS practitioners who are employing them to support decision making. These challenges impose important meta-choices to designers and practitioners, which may lead to different contents of the evaluation model and to distinctive outcomes of the analysis. In this paper, we present and discuss these key challenges and the associated meta-choices. The contribution that we aim to provide to both researchers and practitioners can be summarized as follows: (i) an increased awareness about choices to be made in the design and implementation of these decision support systems; (ii) a better understanding about the available alternatives for each choice, based on recent developments in the literature; and (iii) a clearer appraisal about the inherent trade-offs between advantages and disadvantages of each alternative

Towards a decision-support procedure to foster stakeholder involvement and acceptability of urban freight transport policies

Purpose: This paper addresses the complex problem of multi-stakeholder decisions in urban freight transport policy-making from a public authority perspective, by proposing a procedure based on a modelling approach to support stakeholder involvement in the decision-making process. The paper analyses the existing methods that can be used for participatory decision-support, with the intent of contextualizing and introducing the innovative modelling approach. Methods: The modelling approach consists of a well-thought integration of discrete choice models (DCM) with agent-based models (ABM) as an effective way to account for stakeholders’ opinions in the policy-making process, while mimicking their interaction to find a shared policy package. The integrated modelling approach is able to combine the advantages of the two methods while overcoming their respective weaknesses. Since it is well grounded on sound microeconomic theory, it provides a detailed (static) stakeholders’ behavioural knowledge, but it is also capable of reproducing agents’ (dynamic) interaction during the decision-making process. The integration allows performing an ex-ante behavioural analysis, with the aim of testing the potential acceptability of the solutions proposed. The methodology is applied in a real case study to prove its feasibility and usefulness for participatory decision-making. Results: The integrated modelling approach can be used for participatory decision-support and it can be casted in the overall UFT policy-making process. The results of the behavioural analysis, in terms of ranking of potentially accepted policies, linked with the technical evaluations from transport network modelling tools, provide a sound basis for active participation and deliberation with stakeholders and policy-makers. The aim is to guide an effective participation process aimed at consensus building among stakeholders, by proposing them a subset of policies that, as a result of a preliminary analysis, are likely to be accepted while performing well in terms of technical results. Conclusions: This approach, integrating DCM and ABM, represents a promising way to tackle the complexity of multi-stakeholder involvement in UFT policy-making and to support an efficient and effective decision-making process. It produces an added value for UFT policy-making and it can be framed in the overall context of transport planning. In fact, together with technical and economic analyses, the stakeholder behavioural analysis proposed contributes to the ex-ante policy assessment needed to support decision-makers in taking well-thought decisions. Keywords: stakeholder behavioural analysis, discrete choice models, agent-based models, city logistics, participatory policy-makingpublishedVersio