Optimal Release Time: Numbers or Intuition?

Despite the exponential increase in the demand for software and the increase in our dependence on software, many software manufacturers behave in an unpredictable manner. In such an unpredictable software manufacturer organization, it is difficult to determine the optimal release time. An economic model is presented supporting the evaluation and comparison of different release or market entry alternatives. This model requires information with respect to achieved reliability and maintainability. Existing literature reveals many models to estimate reliability and limited models to estimate maintainability. The practicality of most available models is however criticized. A series of case studies confirmed that software manufacturers struggle with determining the reliability and maintainability of their products prior to releasing them. This leads to a combination of non-analytical methods to decide when a software product is good enough for release: intuition prevails where sharing convincing information is required. Next research steps are put forward to investigate ways increasing the economic reasoning about the optimal release time

An Economic Model for Market Entry Strategies

In unpredictable software manufacturer organizations, it is difficult to determine when a software product will be released, the features the product will have, the associated development costs or the resulting product quality. The NPVI-method is presented, enabling a software manufacturer to compare and evaluate different release or market entry strategies. However, information has its price in time and cost, forcing decision-makers to make a trade-off between search costs and opportunity costs. In addition, decision-makers simplify the real world, as they cannot escape the diverse psychological forces that influence individual behaviour. Combined with the potential presence of sources of conflict, this often leads to the situation where different stakeholders experience difference aspiration levels. As such, satisficing behaviour where decision-makers try to find consensus and choose a satisfactory release alternative is a good characterisation of the software release decision-making process as found in practice. Successful adoption of the NPVI-method requires that software manufacturers reach the zone of cost effectiveness for the perfection of information; a zone where numbers make business sense, and can be convincingly used to support informed decision-making

A Multi-Disciplinary View on Software Release Decisions

A relatively unexplored area in the field of software management is the implementation or release decision, deciding whether or not a software product can be transferred from its development phase to operational use. Many software manufacturers have difficulty in determining the right moment to release their software products. It is a trade-off between an early release, to capture the benefits of an earlier market introduction, and the deferral of product release, to enhance functionality, or improve quality. In this research project software release decisions are researched from three perspectives: economics, decision-making and software management. All perspectives are reviewed, explored in-depth, both from a theoretical and from an empirical point of view, by studying practical examples. The results are used in a proposed methodology to improve strategic software release decisions, characterized by the existence of large prospective financial loss outcomes, including the presence of high costs for reversing a decision. The methodology identifies the critical factors for a high quality decision outcome, being the sum of quality of the decision inputs and the quality of the decision-making process

A Methodology to Support Software Release Decisions

A relatively unexplored area in the field of software management is the implementation or release decision, deciding whether or not a software product can be transferred from its development phase to operational use. Many software manufacturers have difficulty in determining the ‘right ’ moment to release their software products. It is a trade-off between an early release, to capture the benefits of an earlier market introduction, and the deferral of product release, to enhance functionality, or improve quality. In this research project software release decisions are researched from three perspectives: economics, decision-making and software management. All perspectives are reviewed, explored indepth, both from a theoretical and from an empirical point of view, by studying practical examples. The results are used in a proposed methodology to improve strategic software release decisions, characterized by the existence of large prospective financial loss outcomes, including the presence of high costs for reversing a decision. Based on validation results in a practical setting, it is concluded that this methodology has a descriptive and a judgmental character, and can therefore support understanding, analysing, assessing and improving the capability of software manufacturers in this problematic area. Categories and Subject Descriptors D.2.8 [Software Engineering]: Metrics – process metrics, product metrics

Design of a Methodology to Support Software Release Decisions (Do the Numbers Really Matter?)

Software is a major worldwide industry. Software pervades a multitude of products and is an important corporate asset, with demand still increasing. Without software, most organizations could not survive in the current marketplace, and both the impact of software on everybody’s life and our dependence on software is rapidly increasing. Everyone uses software nowadays. We find software embedded, for example, in watches, coffee machines, cars, televisions, aeroplanes, phones, reservation systems, and medical equipment. It cannot, however, be denied that software engineering is still a discipline with much potential for improvement. Software projects are characterized by schedule and budget overruns, and the delivery of unreliable, and difficult to maintain, software products. A relatively unexplored area in the field of software management is the implementation or release decision, deciding whether or not a software product can be transferred from its development phase to operational use. Many software manufacturers have difficulty in determining the ‘right’ moment to release their software products. It is a trade-off between an early release, to capture the benefits of an earlier market introduction, and the deferral of product release, to enhance functionality, or improve quality. A release decision is a trade-off where, in theory, the objective is to maximize the economic value. Inputs into the release decision are expected cash inflows and outflows if the product is released. When should a product be released? What is the market window? What are the expectations of customers and end-users? A release decision deals with the difficulty of verifying the correct implementation of functional and non-functional requirements. How much testing is needed? Software manufacturers are challenged to find the optimal level of information, as information has its price in cost and time. The decision-making process to release a product will normally involve different stakeholders, who will not necessarily have the same preferences for the decision outcome. This means elements of individual and group behaviour are likely to surface when discussing a release decision to find a satisfactory consensus. A decision is only considered successful if there is congruence between the expected outcome and the actual outcome, which sets requirements for decision implementation. In this research project these different perspectives are reviewed, explored in-depth, both from a theoretical and from an empirical point of view, by studying practical examples. The results are used in a proposed methodology to improve strategic software release decisions, characterized by the existence of large prospective financial loss outcomes, including the presence of high costs for reversing a decision. Based on validation results in a practical setting, it is concluded that this methodology has a descriptive and a judgmental character, and can therefore support understanding, analysing, assessing and improving the capability of software manufacturers in this problematic area.