9,275 research outputs found
Combining predictions from linear models when training and test inputs differ
Methods for combining predictions from different models in a supervised
learning setting must somehow estimate/predict the quality of a model's
predictions at unknown future inputs. Many of these methods (often implicitly)
make the assumption that the test inputs are identical to the training inputs,
which is seldom reasonable. By failing to take into account that prediction
will generally be harder for test inputs that did not occur in the training
set, this leads to the selection of too complex models. Based on a novel,
unbiased expression for KL divergence, we propose XAIC and its special case
FAIC as versions of AIC intended for prediction that use different degrees of
knowledge of the test inputs. Both methods substantially differ from and may
outperform all the known versions of AIC even when the training and test inputs
are iid, and are especially useful for deterministic inputs and under covariate
shift. Our experiments on linear models suggest that if the test and training
inputs differ substantially, then XAIC and FAIC predictively outperform AIC,
BIC and several other methods including Bayesian model averaging.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures. To appear in Proceedings of the 30th Conference
on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2014). This version includes
the supplementary material (regularity assumptions, proofs
An Overview on Application of Machine Learning Techniques in Optical Networks
Today's telecommunication networks have become sources of enormous amounts of
widely heterogeneous data. This information can be retrieved from network
traffic traces, network alarms, signal quality indicators, users' behavioral
data, etc. Advanced mathematical tools are required to extract meaningful
information from these data and take decisions pertaining to the proper
functioning of the networks from the network-generated data. Among these
mathematical tools, Machine Learning (ML) is regarded as one of the most
promising methodological approaches to perform network-data analysis and enable
automated network self-configuration and fault management. The adoption of ML
techniques in the field of optical communication networks is motivated by the
unprecedented growth of network complexity faced by optical networks in the
last few years. Such complexity increase is due to the introduction of a huge
number of adjustable and interdependent system parameters (e.g., routing
configurations, modulation format, symbol rate, coding schemes, etc.) that are
enabled by the usage of coherent transmission/reception technologies, advanced
digital signal processing and compensation of nonlinear effects in optical
fiber propagation. In this paper we provide an overview of the application of
ML to optical communications and networking. We classify and survey relevant
literature dealing with the topic, and we also provide an introductory tutorial
on ML for researchers and practitioners interested in this field. Although a
good number of research papers have recently appeared, the application of ML to
optical networks is still in its infancy: to stimulate further work in this
area, we conclude the paper proposing new possible research directions
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