Risk-Averse Model Predictive Operation Control of Islanded Microgrids

In this paper we present a risk-averse model predictive control (MPC) scheme for the operation of islanded microgrids with very high share of renewable energy sources. The proposed scheme mitigates the effect of errors in the determination of the probability distribution of renewable infeed and load. This allows to use less complex and less accurate forecasting methods and to formulate low-dimensional scenario-based optimisation problems which are suitable for control applications. Additionally, the designer may trade performance for safety by interpolating between the conventional stochastic and worst-case MPC formulations. The presented risk-averse MPC problem is formulated as a mixed-integer quadratically-constrained quadratic problem and its favourable characteristics are demonstrated in a case study. This includes a sensitivity analysis that illustrates the robustness to load and renewable power prediction errors

Multistage Stochastic Portfolio Optimisation in Deregulated Electricity Markets Using Linear Decision Rules

The deregulation of electricity markets increases the financial risk faced by retailers who procure electric energy on the spot market to meet their customers’ electricity demand. To hedge against this exposure, retailers often hold a portfolio of electricity derivative contracts. In this paper, we propose a multistage stochastic mean-variance optimisation model for the management of such a portfolio. To reduce computational complexity, we perform two approximations: stage-aggregation and linear decision rules (LDR). The LDR approach consists of restricting the set of decision rules to those affine in the history of the random parameters. When applied to mean-variance optimisation models, it leads to convex quadratic programs. Since their size grows typically only polynomially with the number of periods, they can be efficiently solved. Our numerical experiments illustrate the value of adaptivity inherent in the LDR method and its potential for enabling scalability to problems with many periods.OR in energy, electricity portfolio management, stochastic programming, risk management, linear decision rules

Software tools for stochastic programming: A Stochastic Programming Integrated Environment (SPInE)

SP models combine the paradigm of dynamic linear programming with modelling of random parameters, providing optimal decisions which hedge against future uncertainties. Advances in hardware as well as software techniques and solution methods have made SP a viable optimisation tool. We identify a growing need for modelling systems which support the creation and investigation of SP problems. Our SPInE system integrates a number of components which include a flexible modelling tool (based on stochastic extensions of the algebraic modelling languages AMPL and MPL), stochastic solvers, as well as special purpose scenario generators and database tools. We introduce an asset/liability management model and illustrate how SPInE can be used to create and process this model as a multistage SP application

State estimation for linear stochastic differential equations with uncertain disturbances via BSDE approach

A backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) is an Ito stochastic differential equation (SDE) for which a random terminal condition on the state has been specified. The paper deals with estimation problems for partly observed stochastic processes described by linear SDEs with uncertain disturbances. The disturbances and unknown initial states are supposed to be constrained by the inequality including mathematical expectation of the integral quadratic cost. We consider our equations as BSDEs, and construct at given instant the random information set of all possible states which are compatible with the measurements and the constraints. The center of this set represents the best estimation of the process' state. The evolutionary equations for the random information set and for the best estimation are given. Some examples and applications are considered. © 2012 American Institute of Physics

From Uncertainty Data to Robust Policies for Temporal Logic Planning

We consider the problem of synthesizing robust disturbance feedback policies for systems performing complex tasks. We formulate the tasks as linear temporal logic specifications and encode them into an optimization framework via mixed-integer constraints. Both the system dynamics and the specifications are known but affected by uncertainty. The distribution of the uncertainty is unknown, however realizations can be obtained. We introduce a data-driven approach where the constraints are fulfilled for a set of realizations and provide probabilistic generalization guarantees as a function of the number of considered realizations. We use separate chance constraints for the satisfaction of the specification and operational constraints. This allows us to quantify their violation probabilities independently. We compute disturbance feedback policies as solutions of mixed-integer linear or quadratic optimization problems. By using feedback we can exploit information of past realizations and provide feasibility for a wider range of situations compared to static input sequences. We demonstrate the proposed method on two robust motion-planning case studies for autonomous driving

Asynchronous CDMA Systems with Random Spreading-Part II: Design Criteria

Totally asynchronous code-division multiple-access (CDMA) systems are addressed. In Part I, the fundamental limits of asynchronous CDMA systems are analyzed in terms of spectral efficiency and SINR at the output of the optimum linear detector. The focus of Part II is the design of low-complexity implementations of linear multiuser detectors in systems with many users that admit a multistage representation, e.g. reduced rank multistage Wiener filters, polynomial expansion detectors, weighted linear parallel interference cancellers. The effects of excess bandwidth, chip-pulse shaping, and time delay distribution on CDMA with suboptimum linear receiver structures are investigated. Recursive expressions for universal weight design are given. The performance in terms of SINR is derived in the large-system limit and the performance improvement over synchronous systems is quantified. The considerations distinguish between two ways of forming discrete-time statistics: chip-matched filtering and oversampling