Spike-and-Slab Priors for Function Selection in Structured Additive Regression Models

Structured additive regression provides a general framework for complex Gaussian and non-Gaussian regression models, with predictors comprising arbitrary combinations of nonlinear functions and surfaces, spatial effects, varying coefficients, random effects and further regression terms. The large flexibility of structured additive regression makes function selection a challenging and important task, aiming at (1) selecting the relevant covariates, (2) choosing an appropriate and parsimonious representation of the impact of covariates on the predictor and (3) determining the required interactions. We propose a spike-and-slab prior structure for function selection that allows to include or exclude single coefficients as well as blocks of coefficients representing specific model terms. A novel multiplicative parameter expansion is required to obtain good mixing and convergence properties in a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation approach and is shown to induce desirable shrinkage properties. In simulation studies and with (real) benchmark classification data, we investigate sensitivity to hyperparameter settings and compare performance to competitors. The flexibility and applicability of our approach are demonstrated in an additive piecewise exponential model with time-varying effects for right-censored survival times of intensive care patients with sepsis. Geoadditive and additive mixed logit model applications are discussed in an extensive appendix

Normal-Mixture-of-Inverse-Gamma Priors for Bayesian Regularization and Model Selection in Structured Additive Regression Models

In regression models with many potential predictors, choosing an appropriate subset of covariates and their interactions at the same time as determining whether linear or more flexible functional forms are required is a challenging and important task. We propose a spike-and-slab prior structure in order to include or exclude single coefficients as well as blocks of coefficients associated with factor variables, random effects or basis expansions of smooth functions. Structured additive models with this prior structure are estimated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo using a redundant multiplicative parameter expansion. We discuss shrinkage properties of the novel prior induced by the redundant parameterization, investigate its sensitivity to hyperparameter settings and compare performance of the proposed method in terms of model selection, sparsity recovery, and estimation error for Gaussian, binomial and Poisson responses on real and simulated data sets with that of component-wise boosting and other approaches

Neural Connectivity with Hidden Gaussian Graphical State-Model

The noninvasive procedures for neural connectivity are under questioning. Theoretical models sustain that the electromagnetic field registered at external sensors is elicited by currents at neural space. Nevertheless, what we observe at the sensor space is a superposition of projected fields, from the whole gray-matter. This is the reason for a major pitfall of noninvasive Electrophysiology methods: distorted reconstruction of neural activity and its connectivity or leakage. It has been proven that current methods produce incorrect connectomes. Somewhat related to the incorrect connectivity modelling, they disregard either Systems Theory and Bayesian Information Theory. We introduce a new formalism that attains for it, Hidden Gaussian Graphical State-Model (HIGGS). A neural Gaussian Graphical Model (GGM) hidden by the observation equation of Magneto-encephalographic (MEEG) signals. HIGGS is equivalent to a frequency domain Linear State Space Model (LSSM) but with sparse connectivity prior. The mathematical contribution here is the theory for high-dimensional and frequency-domain HIGGS solvers. We demonstrate that HIGGS can attenuate the leakage effect in the most critical case: the distortion EEG signal due to head volume conduction heterogeneities. Its application in EEG is illustrated with retrieved connectivity patterns from human Steady State Visual Evoked Potentials (SSVEP). We provide for the first time confirmatory evidence for noninvasive procedures of neural connectivity: concurrent EEG and Electrocorticography (ECoG) recordings on monkey. Open source packages are freely available online, to reproduce the results presented in this paper and to analyze external MEEG databases

Exact Dimensionality Selection for Bayesian PCA

We present a Bayesian model selection approach to estimate the intrinsic dimensionality of a high-dimensional dataset. To this end, we introduce a novel formulation of the probabilisitic principal component analysis model based on a normal-gamma prior distribution. In this context, we exhibit a closed-form expression of the marginal likelihood which allows to infer an optimal number of components. We also propose a heuristic based on the expected shape of the marginal likelihood curve in order to choose the hyperparameters. In non-asymptotic frameworks, we show on simulated data that this exact dimensionality selection approach is competitive with both Bayesian and frequentist state-of-the-art methods