1 research outputs found
The conformable fractional grey system model
The fractional order grey models (FGM) have appealed considerable interest of
research in recent years due to its higher effectiveness and flexibility than
the conventional grey models and other prediction models. However, the
definitions of the fractional order accumulation (FOA) and difference (FOD) is
computationally complex, which leads to difficulties for the theoretical
analysis and applications. In this paper, the new definition of the FOA are
proposed based on the definitions of Conformable Fractional Derivative, which
is called the Conformable Fractional Accumulation (CFA), along with its inverse
operation, the Conformable Fractional Difference (CFD). Then the new
Conformable Fractional Grey Model (CFGM) based on CFA and CFD is introduced
with detailed modelling procedures. The feasibility and simplicity and the CFGM
are shown in the numerical example. And the at last the comprehensive
real-world case studies of natural gas production forecasting in 11 countries
are presented, and results show that the CFGM is much more effective than the
existing FGM model in the 165 subcases.Comment: 28 pages, 8 figure