A fuzzy model of the MSCI EURO index based on content analysis of European central bank statements

In this paper we investigate whether the MSCI EURO index can be predicted based on the content of European Central Bank (ECB) statements. We propose a new model to retrieve information from free text and transform it into a quantitative output. For this purpose, we first identify all adjectives in an ECB statement by using the Stanford Part-of-Speech Tagger and feed these to the General Inquirer (GI) content analysis tool. From GI we obtain a matrix that provides for each document and for each content category the percentage of words in the document that fall under each category. After normalizing the data, we develop a Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model using fuzzy c-means clustering. The TS fuzzy system is used to model the levels of the MSCI EURO index. To determine the performance of the model, we focus on the accuracy of predicting upward or downward movement in the index, and obtain, on average, an accuracy of 66%, that corresponds to an improvement of 16% over a random classifier

News Analytics for Financial Decision Support

This PhD thesis contributes to the newly emerged, growing body of scientific work on the use of News Analytics in Finance. Regarded as the next significant development in Automated Trading, News Analytics extends trading algorithms to incorporate information extracted from textual messages, by translating it into actionable, valuable knowledge. The thesis addresses one main theme: the incorporation of news into trading algorithms. This relates to three main tasks: i) the extraction of the information contained in news, ii) the representation of the information contained in news, and iii) the aggregation of this information into actionable knowledge. We validate our approach by designing and implementing three semantic systems: a system for the computational content analysis of European Central Bank statements, a system for incorporating news in stock trading strategies, and a time-aware system for trading based on analyst recommendations. The approach we choose for addressing these tasks is an interdisciplinary one. For the extraction of information from news we rely on approaches borrowed from Computer Science and Linguistics. The representation of the information contained in news is realized by using, and extending, the state-of-the-art in Semantic Web technology. We do this by bringing together insights from Logics, Metaphysics, and Computational Semantics. The aggregation of information is done by using techniques and results from Computational Intelligence and Financ