Forex trading prediction using linear regression line, artificial neural network and dynamic time warping algorithms

Forex prediction has become a challenging task in the Forex market since the late 1970s due to uncertainty movement of exchange rates.In this paper, we utilised linear regression equation to analyse the historical data and discover the trends patterns in Forex.These trends patterns are modeled and learned by Artificial Neural Network algorithm, and Dynamic Time Warping algorithm is used to predict the near future trends.Our experiment result shows a satisfactory result using the proposed approach

Performance Forecasting of Share Market using Machine Learning Techniques: A Review

Forecasting share performance becomes more challenging issue due to the enormous amount of valuable trading data stored in the stock database. Currently, existing forecasting methods are insufficient to analyze the share performance accurately. There are two main reasons for that: First, the study of existing forecasting methods is still insufficient to identify the most suitable methods for share price prediction. Second, the lack of investigations made on the factors affecting the share performance. In this regard, this study presents a systematic review of the last fifteen years on various machine learning techniques in order to analyze share performance accurately. The only objective of this study is to provide an overview of the machine learning techniques that have been used to forecast share performance. This paper also highlights a how the prediction algorithms can be used to identify the most important variables in a share market dataset. Finally, we could have succeeded to analyze share performance effectively. It could bring benefits and impacts to researchers, society, brokers and financial analysts

Computational Visual Analysis of the Order Book Dynamics for Creating High-frequency Foreign Exchange Trading Strategies

AbstractThis paper presents a Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model used to capture the USD/COP market sentiment dynamics choosing from uptrend or downtrend latent regimes based on observed feature vector realizations calculated from transaction prices and wavelet-transformed order book volume dynamics. The HHMM learned a natural switching buy/uptrend sell/downtrend trading strategy using a training-validation framework over one month of market data. The model was tested on the following two months, and its performance was reported and compared to results obtained from randomly classified market states and a feed-forward Neural Network. This paper also separately assessed the contribution to the model's performance of the order book information and the wavelet transformation

A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Models in Forecasting Market Risk: The Evidence from Turkish Derivative Exchange

This paper aims to compare the volatility forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear models for ISE-30 future index which is traded in Turkish Derivatives Exchangefor the period between 04.02.2005-17.06.2011. As a result of analyses, we conclude that ANN model has better forecasting performance than traditional ARCH-GARCH models. This result is important in many fields of finance such as investment decisions, asset pricing, portfolio allocation and risk managemen

New Neural Network Based on Ant Colony Algorithm for Financial Data

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