DAG-Based Attack and Defense Modeling: Don't Miss the Forest for the Attack Trees

This paper presents the current state of the art on attack and defense modeling approaches that are based on directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). DAGs allow for a hierarchical decomposition of complex scenarios into simple, easily understandable and quantifiable actions. Methods based on threat trees and Bayesian networks are two well-known approaches to security modeling. However there exist more than 30 DAG-based methodologies, each having different features and goals. The objective of this survey is to present a complete overview of graphical attack and defense modeling techniques based on DAGs. This consists of summarizing the existing methodologies, comparing their features and proposing a taxonomy of the described formalisms. This article also supports the selection of an adequate modeling technique depending on user requirements

Model-based Safety and Security Co-analysis: a Survey

We survey the state-of-the-art on model-based formalisms for safety and security analysis, where safety refers to the absence of unintended failures, and security absence of malicious attacks. We consider ten model-based formalisms, comparing their modeling principles, the interaction between safety and security, and analysis methods. In each formalism, we model the classical Locked Door Example where possible. Our key finding is that the exact nature of safety-security interaction is still ill-understood. Existing formalisms merge previous safety and security formalisms, without introducing specific constructs to model safety-security interactions, or metrics to analyze trade offs

Evaluating Resilience of Cyber-Physical-Social Systems

Nowadays, protecting the network is not the only security concern. Still, in cyber security, websites and servers are becoming more popular as targets due to the ease with which they can be accessed when compared to communication networks. Another threat in cyber physical social systems with human interactions is that they can be attacked and manipulated not only by technical hacking through networks, but also by manipulating people and stealing users’ credentials. Therefore, systems should be evaluated beyond cy- ber security, which means measuring their resilience as a piece of evidence that a system works properly under cyber-attacks or incidents. In that way, cyber resilience is increas- ingly discussed and described as the capacity of a system to maintain state awareness for detecting cyber-attacks. All the tasks for making a system resilient should proactively maintain a safe level of operational normalcy through rapid system reconfiguration to detect attacks that would impact system performance. In this work, we broadly studied a new paradigm of cyber physical social systems and defined a uniform definition of it. To overcome the complexity of evaluating cyber resilience, especially in these inhomo- geneous systems, we proposed a framework including applying Attack Tree refinements and Hierarchical Timed Coloured Petri Nets to model intruder and defender behaviors and evaluate the impact of each action on the behavior and performance of the system.Hoje em dia, proteger a rede não é a única preocupação de segurança. Ainda assim, na segurança cibernética, sites e servidores estão se tornando mais populares como alvos devido à facilidade com que podem ser acessados quando comparados às redes de comu- nicação. Outra ameaça em sistemas sociais ciberfisicos com interações humanas é que eles podem ser atacados e manipulados não apenas por hackers técnicos através de redes, mas também pela manipulação de pessoas e roubo de credenciais de utilizadores. Portanto, os sistemas devem ser avaliados para além da segurança cibernética, o que significa medir sua resiliência como uma evidência de que um sistema funciona adequadamente sob ataques ou incidentes cibernéticos. Dessa forma, a resiliência cibernética é cada vez mais discutida e descrita como a capacidade de um sistema manter a consciência do estado para detectar ataques cibernéticos. Todas as tarefas para tornar um sistema resiliente devem manter proativamente um nível seguro de normalidade operacional por meio da reconfi- guração rápida do sistema para detectar ataques que afetariam o desempenho do sistema. Neste trabalho, um novo paradigma de sistemas sociais ciberfisicos é amplamente estu- dado e uma definição uniforme é proposta. Para superar a complexidade de avaliar a resiliência cibernética, especialmente nesses sistemas não homogéneos, é proposta uma estrutura que inclui a aplicação de refinamentos de Árvores de Ataque e Redes de Petri Coloridas Temporizadas Hierárquicas para modelar comportamentos de invasores e de- fensores e avaliar o impacto de cada ação no comportamento e desempenho do sistema

Cyber resilience meta-modelling: The railway communication case study

Recent times have demonstrated how much the modern critical infrastructures (e.g., energy, essential services, people and goods transportation) depend from the global communication networks. However, in the current Cyber-Physical World convergence, sophisticated attacks to the cyber layer can provoke severe damages to both physical structures and the operations of infrastructure affecting not only its functionality and safety, but also triggering cascade effects in other systems because of the tight interdependence of the systems that characterises the modern society. Hence, critical infrastructure must integrate the current cyber-security approach based on risk avoidance with a broader perspective provided by the emerging cyber-resilience paradigm. Cyber resilience is aimed as a way absorb the consequences of these attacks and to recover the functionality quickly and safely through adaptation. Several high-level frameworks and conceptualisations have been proposed but a formal definition capable of translating cyber resilience into an operational tool for decision makers considering all aspects of such a multifaceted concept is still missing. To this end, the present paper aims at providing an operational formalisation for cyber resilience starting from the Cyber Resilience Ontology presented in a previous work using model-driven principles. A domain model is defined to cope with the different aspects and “resilience-assurance” processes that it can be valid in various application domains. In this respect, an application case based on critical transportation communications systems, namely the railway communication system, is provided to prove the feasibility of the proposed approach and to identify future improvements

A Bayesian Network Approach for the Interpretation of Cyber Attacks to Power Systems

The focus of this paper is on the analysis of the cyber security resilience of digital infrastructures deployed by power grids, internationally recognized as a priority since several recent cyber attacks targeted energy systems and in particular the power service. In response to the regulatory framework, this paper presents an analysis approach based on the Bayesian Networks formalism and on real world threat scenarios. Our approach enables analyses oriented to planning of security measures and monitoring, and to forecasting of adversarial behaviours

Improving resilience to cyber-attacks by analysing system output impacts and costs

Cyber-attacks cost businesses millions of dollars every year, a key component of which is the cost of business disruption from system downtime. As cyber-attacks cannot all be prevented, there is a need to consider the cyber resilience of systems, i.e. the ability to withstand cyber-attacks and recover from them. Previous works discussing system cyber resilience typically either offer generic high-level guidance on best practices, provide limited attack modelling, or apply to systems with special characteristics. There is a lack of an approach to system cyber resilience evaluation that is generally applicable yet provides a detailed consideration for the system-level impacts of cyber-attacks and defences. We propose a methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of actions intended to improve resilience to cyber-attacks, considering their impacts on system output performance, and monetary costs. It is intended for analysing attacks that can disrupt the system function, and involves modelling attack progression, system output production, response to attacks, and costs from cyber-attacks and defensive actions. Studies of three use cases demonstrate the implementation and usefulness of our methodology. First, in our redundancy planning study, we considered the effect of redundancy additions on mitigating the impacts of cyber-attacks on system output performance. We found that redundancy with diversity can be effective in increasing resilience, although the reduction in attack-related costs must be balanced against added maintenance costs. Second, our work on attack countermeasure selection shows that by considering system output impacts across the duration of an attack, one can find more cost-effective attack responses than without such considerations. Third, we propose an approach to mission viability analysis for multi-UAV deployments facing cyber-attacks, which can aid resource planning and determining if the mission can conclude successfully despite an attack. We provide different implementations of our model components, based on use case requirements.Open Acces

Cybersecurity knowledge graphs

Cybersecurity knowledge graphs, which represent cyber-knowledge with a graph-based data model, provide holistic approaches for processing massive volumes of complex cybersecurity data derived from diverse sources. They can assist security analysts to obtain cyberthreat intelligence, achieve a high level of cyber-situational awareness, discover new cyber-knowledge, visualize networks, data flow, and attack paths, and understand data correlations by aggregating and fusing data. This paper reviews the most prominent graph-based data models used in this domain, along with knowledge organization systems that define concepts and properties utilized in formal cyber-knowledge representation for both background knowledge and specific expert knowledge about an actual system or attack. It is also discussed how cybersecurity knowledge graphs enable machine learning and facilitate automated reasoning over cyber-knowledge

Model-driven situational awareness for moving target defense

Moving Target Defense (MTD) presents dynamically changing attack surfaces and system configurations to attackers. This approach decreases the success probabilities of attacks and increases attacker's workload since she must continually re-assess, re-engineer and re-launch her attacks. Existing research has provided a number of MTD techniques but approaches for gaining situational awareness and deciding when/how to apply these techniques are not well studied. In this paper, we present a conceptual framework that closely integrates a set of models with the system and obtains up-to-date situational awareness following the OODA loop methodology. To realize the framework, as the first step, we propose a modelling approach that provides insights about the dynamics between potential attacks and defenses, impact of attacks and adaptations on the system, and the state of the system. Based on these models, we demonstrate techniques to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of MTD and show how to formulate decision-making problems